Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) probl...Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure展开更多
The reduced strong absorption distance d_(S) and Coulomb barrier height V_(B) are extracted from the quarter-point recipe from a series of experimental elastic scattering angle distributions.The nuclei with different ...The reduced strong absorption distance d_(S) and Coulomb barrier height V_(B) are extracted from the quarter-point recipe from a series of experimental elastic scattering angle distributions.The nuclei with different binding energies are systematically studied as the projectile,including the tightly bound,weakly bound,and halo nuclei.It is found that the mean d_(S) for halo nuclei is significantly larger than that of tightly and weakly bound nuclei.The complex behavior of d_(S) regarding the binding energy and properties of the target is observed for halo nuclei.The linear relationship of the reduced distance with system size may be used to estimate the Coulomb barrier radius R_(B),which is difficult to obtain from fusion reactions.The rule of V_(B) concerning the Coulomb parameter z is in agreement with other theoretical barrier laws extracted from the fusion reaction.Furthermore,the reason why the binding energy or deformation has little effect on the linear relationship of V_(B) as a function of z is clarified.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420 & 41525017)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No. GYHY201306018)
文摘Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure
基金This study is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFA1602302)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12235020,12275360,12175314,12175313,U2167204)+3 种基金the Continuous Basic Scientific Research Project(WDJC-2019-13)the Leading Innovation Project(LC192209000701,LC202309000201)the project supported by the Director's Foundation of Department of Nuclear Physics,China Institute of Atomic Energy(12SZJJ-202305)the Young Talent Development Foundation(YC212212000101)。
文摘The reduced strong absorption distance d_(S) and Coulomb barrier height V_(B) are extracted from the quarter-point recipe from a series of experimental elastic scattering angle distributions.The nuclei with different binding energies are systematically studied as the projectile,including the tightly bound,weakly bound,and halo nuclei.It is found that the mean d_(S) for halo nuclei is significantly larger than that of tightly and weakly bound nuclei.The complex behavior of d_(S) regarding the binding energy and properties of the target is observed for halo nuclei.The linear relationship of the reduced distance with system size may be used to estimate the Coulomb barrier radius R_(B),which is difficult to obtain from fusion reactions.The rule of V_(B) concerning the Coulomb parameter z is in agreement with other theoretical barrier laws extracted from the fusion reaction.Furthermore,the reason why the binding energy or deformation has little effect on the linear relationship of V_(B) as a function of z is clarified.
