Global Positioning System （GPS） and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （InSAR）, used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. H...Global Positioning System （GPS） and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （InSAR）, used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer （SSS）, is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.展开更多
采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂数值计算模型,模拟并分析了均质与分层岩石材料中分段压裂过程引起的应力阴影效应.通过与单一裂缝诱发应力理论解的对比,验证了PHF-LSM考虑应力阴影效应...采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂数值计算模型,模拟并分析了均质与分层岩石材料中分段压裂过程引起的应力阴影效应.通过与单一裂缝诱发应力理论解的对比,验证了PHF-LSM考虑应力阴影效应的可行性.以此模型为基础分析了单一裂缝发展过程中,岩石材料参数与初始应力条件对诱发应力场的影响,以及均质与分层岩石材料的多裂缝起裂过程中不同压裂间距与压裂顺序产生的应力阴影效应.数值计算结果表明:泊松比、抗拉强度与孔隙率的增加会增大裂缝引起的诱发应力与净压力比值的峰值,而弹性模量和水平主应力差的增大会减小该峰值;裂缝间距的扩大可以减弱裂缝间应力阴影效应;两步压裂与顺序压裂的裂缝总面积均大于同时压裂时的面积,但顺序压裂与两步压裂会带来更高的起裂压力;产层厚度与压裂间距的减小会增大应力阴影效应.展开更多
采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂计算模型,建立了含节理分布的岩石材料模型,将其计算结果与裂缝几何特征和诱发应力理论解对比验证模型正确性,在此基础上分析节理对水力裂缝应力阴影效应...采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂计算模型,建立了含节理分布的岩石材料模型,将其计算结果与裂缝几何特征和诱发应力理论解对比验证模型正确性,在此基础上分析节理对水力裂缝应力阴影效应的影响.计算结果表明:基于弥散裂缝模型的PHF模型应使用等效开裂区域最外侧结点位移差作为裂缝等效开度;节理的存在会影响裂缝注水过程中水压力变化,同时会引起裂缝等效开度的增大;较大的节理入射角度与距注水点较小的节理高度会产生更大诱发应力,同时会引起最小主应力方向的改变,导致更强应力阴影效应,裂缝偏转加强.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Science Foundation (No.2007CB209400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40638040,10672028)the Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.20070421048)
文摘Global Positioning System （GPS） and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （InSAR）, used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer （SSS）, is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.
文摘采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂数值计算模型,模拟并分析了均质与分层岩石材料中分段压裂过程引起的应力阴影效应.通过与单一裂缝诱发应力理论解的对比,验证了PHF-LSM考虑应力阴影效应的可行性.以此模型为基础分析了单一裂缝发展过程中,岩石材料参数与初始应力条件对诱发应力场的影响,以及均质与分层岩石材料的多裂缝起裂过程中不同压裂间距与压裂顺序产生的应力阴影效应.数值计算结果表明:泊松比、抗拉强度与孔隙率的增加会增大裂缝引起的诱发应力与净压力比值的峰值,而弹性模量和水平主应力差的增大会减小该峰值;裂缝间距的扩大可以减弱裂缝间应力阴影效应;两步压裂与顺序压裂的裂缝总面积均大于同时压裂时的面积,但顺序压裂与两步压裂会带来更高的起裂压力;产层厚度与压裂间距的减小会增大应力阴影效应.
文摘采用PHF-LSM(permeability-based hydraulic fracture-level set method)水力压裂计算模型,建立了含节理分布的岩石材料模型,将其计算结果与裂缝几何特征和诱发应力理论解对比验证模型正确性,在此基础上分析节理对水力裂缝应力阴影效应的影响.计算结果表明:基于弥散裂缝模型的PHF模型应使用等效开裂区域最外侧结点位移差作为裂缝等效开度;节理的存在会影响裂缝注水过程中水压力变化,同时会引起裂缝等效开度的增大;较大的节理入射角度与距注水点较小的节理高度会产生更大诱发应力,同时会引起最小主应力方向的改变,导致更强应力阴影效应,裂缝偏转加强.
