Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the...Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow was detected, and the possible association between the El Ni(n)o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃ rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986, which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River, but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow.展开更多
借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Ana...借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Analysis Tool)建立了气候-陆面单向连接系统。将未来气候情景(日降水量、最高和最低气温情景),输入到SWAT模型模拟径流,重点预测评估黄河源区未来不同时期的径流变化情况,并分析讨论气候变化情景下径流深的空间分布及响应。其结果表明,SWAT模型可以较好地模拟黄河源区的流量过程,未来气候变化对黄河源区径流量变化影响很大,而且不同的降尺度情景对模拟结果会产生不同的影响。统计降尺度(SDS)情景模拟表明,黄河源区未来径流量的减少趋势不可避免,未来3个时期(2020s、2050s和2080s)将分别减少88.61m3/(s24.15%)、116.64m3/(s31.79%)和151.62m3/(s41.33%),而Delta情景下研究区年平均流量变化相对较小,与基准期相比未来2020s和2050s分别减少63.69m3/s(17.36%)和1.73m3/s(0.47%),而2080s将增加46.93m3/(s12.79%)。展开更多
We established a Juniperus przewalski tree ring width chronology, based on tree ring cores collected from the A’nyêmaqên Mountains. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with...We established a Juniperus przewalski tree ring width chronology, based on tree ring cores collected from the A’nyêmaqên Mountains. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with instrumental streamflow records from previous August to current July from the Tangnaihai Station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.656. Streamflow for the upper reaches of the Yellow River was reconstructed for the past 1234 years. Low flow periods for the 11-year averaged streamflow reconstruction were definite as lower than mean plus 1 standard deviation, and high flow periods were higher than mean minus 1 standard deviation. Over the past 1234 years, high flows occurred 18 times, and low flows occurred 12 times. The main low flow periods were identified as AD 1140–1156, AD 1295–1309, AD 1473–1500, and AD 1820–1847, and the main high flow periods were identified as AD 846–873, and AD 1375–1400. Extremely low streamflow over the reconstruction period was seen during the late 15th century, coinciding with a widespread drought phenomenon, which took place in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau over the same period. Reconstructed streamflow shows significant low-frequency variability, which is in line with drought variability of neighboring regions, as inferred from tree rings and other proxies. Multi-taper spectral analysis suggests the existence of significant periods of 2–5, 22, 35–38, 55–62, and 114–227 years, particularly significant for cyclic variations of years 159 and 36.展开更多
Based on hydrology, temperature, and precipitation data from the past 50 years, the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in Northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the h...Based on hydrology, temperature, and precipitation data from the past 50 years, the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in Northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the hydrological time series were detected using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results showed that the increasing tendency of the temperature has a 5% level of significance, and the temperature increased by nearly 1℃ over the past 50 years. The precipitation showed a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, and the average annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both the temperature and precipitation time series around 1986. The streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increase during the last 20 years. The increase in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow may be attributed to global climate change.展开更多
Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment to- pography, river network and vegetation pattern. This study has developed a distributed schem...Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment to- pography, river network and vegetation pattern. This study has developed a distributed scheme for eco-hydrological simulation in the upper Heihe River. Based on a 1 km x 1 km grid system, the study catchment is divided into 461 sub-catchments, whose main streams form the streamflow pathway. Furthermore, a 1 km grid is represented by a number of topographically similar ＂hillslope-valley＂ systems, and the hillslope is the basic unit of the eco-hydrological simulation. This model is tested with a simplified hydrological simulation focusing on soil-water dynamics and streamflow routing. Based on a 12-year simulation from 2001 to 2012, it is found that variability in hydrological behavior is closely associated with climatic and landscape condi- tions especially vegetation types. The subsurface and groundwater flows dominate the total river runoff. This implies that the soil freezing and thawing process would significantly influence the runoff generation in the upper Heihe basin. Furthermore, the runoff components and water balance characteristics vary among different vegetation types, showing the importance of coupling the vegetation pattern into catchment hydrological simulation. This paper also discusses the model improvement to be done in future study.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the State Key Basic Research and Development Plant of China(Grant No.2004CB720200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.90102007)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX1-08-03).
文摘Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow was detected, and the possible association between the El Ni(n)o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃ rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986, which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River, but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow.
文摘借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Analysis Tool)建立了气候-陆面单向连接系统。将未来气候情景(日降水量、最高和最低气温情景),输入到SWAT模型模拟径流,重点预测评估黄河源区未来不同时期的径流变化情况,并分析讨论气候变化情景下径流深的空间分布及响应。其结果表明,SWAT模型可以较好地模拟黄河源区的流量过程,未来气候变化对黄河源区径流量变化影响很大,而且不同的降尺度情景对模拟结果会产生不同的影响。统计降尺度(SDS)情景模拟表明,黄河源区未来径流量的减少趋势不可避免,未来3个时期(2020s、2050s和2080s)将分别减少88.61m3/(s24.15%)、116.64m3/(s31.79%)和151.62m3/(s41.33%),而Delta情景下研究区年平均流量变化相对较小,与基准期相比未来2020s和2050s分别减少63.69m3/s(17.36%)和1.73m3/s(0.47%),而2080s将增加46.93m3/(s12.79%)。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40671191)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Innovation Team Project (40721061)+2 种基金the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40890051)the One Hundred Tal-ents Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (29O827B11)the Pro-gram of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities from the Chinese Ministry of Education (B06026)
文摘We established a Juniperus przewalski tree ring width chronology, based on tree ring cores collected from the A’nyêmaqên Mountains. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with instrumental streamflow records from previous August to current July from the Tangnaihai Station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.656. Streamflow for the upper reaches of the Yellow River was reconstructed for the past 1234 years. Low flow periods for the 11-year averaged streamflow reconstruction were definite as lower than mean plus 1 standard deviation, and high flow periods were higher than mean minus 1 standard deviation. Over the past 1234 years, high flows occurred 18 times, and low flows occurred 12 times. The main low flow periods were identified as AD 1140–1156, AD 1295–1309, AD 1473–1500, and AD 1820–1847, and the main high flow periods were identified as AD 846–873, and AD 1375–1400. Extremely low streamflow over the reconstruction period was seen during the late 15th century, coinciding with a widespread drought phenomenon, which took place in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau over the same period. Reconstructed streamflow shows significant low-frequency variability, which is in line with drought variability of neighboring regions, as inferred from tree rings and other proxies. Multi-taper spectral analysis suggests the existence of significant periods of 2–5, 22, 35–38, 55–62, and 114–227 years, particularly significant for cyclic variations of years 159 and 36.
基金Project supported by the Pilot Project of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 90502004, 40671014).
文摘Based on hydrology, temperature, and precipitation data from the past 50 years, the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in Northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the hydrological time series were detected using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results showed that the increasing tendency of the temperature has a 5% level of significance, and the temperature increased by nearly 1℃ over the past 50 years. The precipitation showed a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, and the average annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both the temperature and precipitation time series around 1986. The streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increase during the last 20 years. The increase in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow may be attributed to global climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91225302)
文摘Modeling the hydrological processes at catchment scale requires a flexible distributed scheme to represent the catchment to- pography, river network and vegetation pattern. This study has developed a distributed scheme for eco-hydrological simulation in the upper Heihe River. Based on a 1 km x 1 km grid system, the study catchment is divided into 461 sub-catchments, whose main streams form the streamflow pathway. Furthermore, a 1 km grid is represented by a number of topographically similar ＂hillslope-valley＂ systems, and the hillslope is the basic unit of the eco-hydrological simulation. This model is tested with a simplified hydrological simulation focusing on soil-water dynamics and streamflow routing. Based on a 12-year simulation from 2001 to 2012, it is found that variability in hydrological behavior is closely associated with climatic and landscape condi- tions especially vegetation types. The subsurface and groundwater flows dominate the total river runoff. This implies that the soil freezing and thawing process would significantly influence the runoff generation in the upper Heihe basin. Furthermore, the runoff components and water balance characteristics vary among different vegetation types, showing the importance of coupling the vegetation pattern into catchment hydrological simulation. This paper also discusses the model improvement to be done in future study.
