Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, po...Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution （1 km） for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77-90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in decline of suitable climate for China would experience a 3-4 species by 2080. Cli- mate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.展开更多
Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments ha...Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three'Representative Concentration Pathways'(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The 展开更多
Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In thi...Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In this study,we developed species distribution model(SDM)for 16 major tree species with 2,825 permanent sample plots with natural origin from Chinese National Forest Inventory data collected in Jilin Province using the Maxent model.Three types of environmental factors including bioclimate,soil and topography with a total of 33 variables were tested as the input.The values of area under the curve(AUC,one of the receiver operating characteristics of the Maxent model)in the training and test datasets were between 0.784 and 0.968,indicating that the prediction results were quite reliable.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were ranked in terms of their importance to the species distribution.Generally,the climatic factors had the greatest contribution,which included mean diurnal range,annual mean temperature,temperature annual range,and iosthermality.But the main environmental factors varied with tree species.Distribution suitability maps under current(1950-2000)and future climate scenarios(CCSM4-RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 during 2050)were produced for 16 major tree species in Jilin Province using the model developed.The predicted current and future ranges of habitat suitability of the 16 tree species are likely to be positively and negatively affected by future climate.Seven tree species were found to benefit from future climate including B etula costata,Fraxinus mandshurica,Juglans mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense,Populus ussuriensis,Quercus mongolica and Ulmus pumila;five tree species will experience decline in their suitable habitat including B.platyphylla,Tilia mongolica,Picea asperata,Pinus sylvestris,Pinus koraiensis;and four(Salix koreensis,Abies fabri,Pinus densiflora and Larix olgensis)showed the inconsistency under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios.The maps of the habitat suitabil展开更多
The Great Green Macaw Ara ambiguus is an endangered species whose most important food resource and nesting site in Costa Rica is the mountain almond tree Dipteryx panamensis, threatened mainly by deforestation. In thi...The Great Green Macaw Ara ambiguus is an endangered species whose most important food resource and nesting site in Costa Rica is the mountain almond tree Dipteryx panamensis, threatened mainly by deforestation. In this study, we analyse the suitability of reintroducing A. ambiguus in the South Caribbean Coast of Costa Rica by examining whether the ecological and socio-cultural conditions required for the reintroduction are met in the area. The methods developed in this work include biological sampling, cartographical analysis and semi-structured interviews, among others. We set La Ceiba Nature Reserve as study unit and starting point of the analysis due both to its conservation status, favouring the potential release of individuals, and its ecosystem representativeness. Our results suggest that the habitat is suitable for reintroduction, with frequent presence of D. panamensis in the region, as well as other feeding options and potential nesting sites in the study area. The cartographic study reveals that the species could rely on a forested surface of up to 7000 hectares, which would be sufficient for sustaining a viable population. As for the socio-cultural analysis, illegal logging and low protective frameworks were identified as the main potential threats for the species. Nevertheless, we perceived positive conservation attitudes among local people and a pro-active commitment of political stakeholders. We conclude that a viable South Caribbean reintroduction of A. ambiguus is possible in conjunction with a threat mitigation programme.展开更多
Wildlife reintroduction regulations require feasibility assessment to inform planning. The study aims to contribute to the existing knowledge on northern Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, prior to...Wildlife reintroduction regulations require feasibility assessment to inform planning. The study aims to contribute to the existing knowledge on northern Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, prior to the black rhino re-introduction project. The study objective was to assess browse availability and suitability for black rhino re-introduction in northern GNP. We stratified the study area into two strata, i.e. north and south of Runde River in GNP. A total of 96 sample plots measuring 20 m × 30 m (i.e., 48 plots in each study stratum) were randomly placed across the study strata, between March and April 2011. Woody plant variables recorded are: shrub height, shrub canopy diameters, evidence of browsing on woody plants, number of shrubs and woody species. Principal browse frequency of occurrence and proportional quality of woody species were categorized and analyzed in combination with knowledge on the woody species’ value to black rhino diet. Preferred woody species were determined using browse suitability/electivity index. A total of 3201 woody plants were recorded across the study strata. Woody species diversity and black rhino’s browse suitability/electivity value significantly (p = 0.001) differed across the study strata. However, there were no significant differences in shrub density, shrub canopy volume and density of browsed plants. Common principal forages were recorded and included: knob thorn Acacia (Acacia nigrescens), small-leaved sickle-bush (Dichrostachys cineria) and tamboti (Spirostachys africana). The study suggested that black rhino’s browse suitability, preferred browse woody species, woody species diversity and proportional browse availability, as selected attributes are favorably more pronounced in the northern side of the Runde River in GNP, suggesting it is more suitable as a sanctuary for the black rhino re-introduction programme. It was recommended that black rhinos could be re-introduced in the northern GNP area provided other important factors such as law enforceme展开更多
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(‘‘863’’Program)(2009AA12200101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41471347)
文摘Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution （1 km） for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77-90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in decline of suitable climate for China would experience a 3-4 species by 2080. Cli- mate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.
基金support provided by the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Integrated Pest Management of the U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Cooperative Agreement No. AID–OAA-L-15-00001supported by International Foundation for Science (Sweden), Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (Nepal), and National Trust for Nature Conservation (Nepal)
文摘Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three'Representative Concentration Pathways'(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The
基金supported by the forestry public welfare scientific research project(Grant No.201504303)。
文摘Knowledge on the potential suitability of tree species to the site is very important for forest management planning.Natural forest distribution provides a good reference for afforestation and forest restoration.In this study,we developed species distribution model(SDM)for 16 major tree species with 2,825 permanent sample plots with natural origin from Chinese National Forest Inventory data collected in Jilin Province using the Maxent model.Three types of environmental factors including bioclimate,soil and topography with a total of 33 variables were tested as the input.The values of area under the curve(AUC,one of the receiver operating characteristics of the Maxent model)in the training and test datasets were between 0.784 and 0.968,indicating that the prediction results were quite reliable.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were ranked in terms of their importance to the species distribution.Generally,the climatic factors had the greatest contribution,which included mean diurnal range,annual mean temperature,temperature annual range,and iosthermality.But the main environmental factors varied with tree species.Distribution suitability maps under current(1950-2000)and future climate scenarios(CCSM4-RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 during 2050)were produced for 16 major tree species in Jilin Province using the model developed.The predicted current and future ranges of habitat suitability of the 16 tree species are likely to be positively and negatively affected by future climate.Seven tree species were found to benefit from future climate including B etula costata,Fraxinus mandshurica,Juglans mandshurica,Phellodendron amurense,Populus ussuriensis,Quercus mongolica and Ulmus pumila;five tree species will experience decline in their suitable habitat including B.platyphylla,Tilia mongolica,Picea asperata,Pinus sylvestris,Pinus koraiensis;and four(Salix koreensis,Abies fabri,Pinus densiflora and Larix olgensis)showed the inconsistency under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios.The maps of the habitat suitabil
文摘The Great Green Macaw Ara ambiguus is an endangered species whose most important food resource and nesting site in Costa Rica is the mountain almond tree Dipteryx panamensis, threatened mainly by deforestation. In this study, we analyse the suitability of reintroducing A. ambiguus in the South Caribbean Coast of Costa Rica by examining whether the ecological and socio-cultural conditions required for the reintroduction are met in the area. The methods developed in this work include biological sampling, cartographical analysis and semi-structured interviews, among others. We set La Ceiba Nature Reserve as study unit and starting point of the analysis due both to its conservation status, favouring the potential release of individuals, and its ecosystem representativeness. Our results suggest that the habitat is suitable for reintroduction, with frequent presence of D. panamensis in the region, as well as other feeding options and potential nesting sites in the study area. The cartographic study reveals that the species could rely on a forested surface of up to 7000 hectares, which would be sufficient for sustaining a viable population. As for the socio-cultural analysis, illegal logging and low protective frameworks were identified as the main potential threats for the species. Nevertheless, we perceived positive conservation attitudes among local people and a pro-active commitment of political stakeholders. We conclude that a viable South Caribbean reintroduction of A. ambiguus is possible in conjunction with a threat mitigation programme.
文摘Wildlife reintroduction regulations require feasibility assessment to inform planning. The study aims to contribute to the existing knowledge on northern Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, prior to the black rhino re-introduction project. The study objective was to assess browse availability and suitability for black rhino re-introduction in northern GNP. We stratified the study area into two strata, i.e. north and south of Runde River in GNP. A total of 96 sample plots measuring 20 m × 30 m (i.e., 48 plots in each study stratum) were randomly placed across the study strata, between March and April 2011. Woody plant variables recorded are: shrub height, shrub canopy diameters, evidence of browsing on woody plants, number of shrubs and woody species. Principal browse frequency of occurrence and proportional quality of woody species were categorized and analyzed in combination with knowledge on the woody species’ value to black rhino diet. Preferred woody species were determined using browse suitability/electivity index. A total of 3201 woody plants were recorded across the study strata. Woody species diversity and black rhino’s browse suitability/electivity value significantly (p = 0.001) differed across the study strata. However, there were no significant differences in shrub density, shrub canopy volume and density of browsed plants. Common principal forages were recorded and included: knob thorn Acacia (Acacia nigrescens), small-leaved sickle-bush (Dichrostachys cineria) and tamboti (Spirostachys africana). The study suggested that black rhino’s browse suitability, preferred browse woody species, woody species diversity and proportional browse availability, as selected attributes are favorably more pronounced in the northern side of the Runde River in GNP, suggesting it is more suitable as a sanctuary for the black rhino re-introduction programme. It was recommended that black rhinos could be re-introduced in the northern GNP area provided other important factors such as law enforceme
