Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments ha...Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three'Representative Concentration Pathways'(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The 展开更多
基金support provided by the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Integrated Pest Management of the U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Cooperative Agreement No. AID–OAA-L-15-00001supported by International Foundation for Science (Sweden), Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (Nepal), and National Trust for Nature Conservation (Nepal)
文摘Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three'Representative Concentration Pathways'(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The
