Recent research has shown that winter warmings are phenomenally high compared to summer warmings over the poles,especially over the Arctic.Taking the current scenario into account,this paper attempts to understand the...Recent research has shown that winter warmings are phenomenally high compared to summer warmings over the poles,especially over the Arctic.Taking the current scenario into account,this paper attempts to understand the atmospheric variables causing sea ice variability over and around the region of Svalbard for seasons;winter,spring,summer and autumn for the span of 42 years(1979-2021).The variability in atmospheric and oceanic parameters namely temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sea surface salinity are analysed over inter-spatial,inter-seasonal and inter-annual domains.Winters are characterized by inter-annual increasing trend in temperature.During 1981-1990 the rise from the decadal mean is found to be 0.39 K·a^(-1),during 1991-2000 it is 0.20 K·a^(-1),during 2001-2010 it is 0.04 K·a^(-1) and during 2011-2020 it is 0.23 K·a^(-1).Interestingly while considering inter-spatial domains,the region southwest to Svalbard seems to be wetter(0.05 mm·(10 a)-1)compared to its northeast(-0.03 mm·(10 a)-1).Across all the three domains,wind speeds are highest during autumn and then decrease subsequently through summer,spring and are least during winter.Wind is predominantly from the south,and hence it is suspected to carry hot Atlantic air.Additionally,the significant role of salinity in the ocean also plays a key role in governing the fate of sea ice conditions.The long-term forecasts of temperature over seaice of Svalbard are alarming especially for the winter ice(r=-0.84).Correlation matrices between atmospheric and sea ice parameters are shown to gain a better understanding on their inter relation.展开更多
利用常规气象观测、区域加密自动站、NCEP/NCAR逐6 h 1°×1°再分析资料和多普勒雷达探测资料,对2013年8月河南三次西南气流型强对流天气的环境条件、回波特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:(1)三次强对流天气均发生在中纬度...利用常规气象观测、区域加密自动站、NCEP/NCAR逐6 h 1°×1°再分析资料和多普勒雷达探测资料,对2013年8月河南三次西南气流型强对流天气的环境条件、回波特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:(1)三次强对流天气均发生在中纬度低槽和副热带高压相互作用,河南高、中、低层受一致西南气流影响的环流背景下,地面存在温度和露点温度梯度及辐合线,大范围强对流天气是在高空槽动力作用和地面辐合线的触发作用下,使得不稳定能量释放而引起。(2)三次强对流天气对流层中下层有比较深厚的暖湿层结,热力和水汽条件充分,对流层中上层有明显干层,从而形成了低层暖湿、上层比较干冷的对流不稳定大气层结。强的垂直风切变位于对流层中下层,对流有效位能非常大,配合一定的动力抬升条件,有利于超级单体和飑线的发生和发展。综合来看,8月1日不稳定、水汽、垂直切变和动力条件最强,1 1日次之,7日相对较弱。强对流形成条件的强弱对对流系统的组织结构有一定影响。(3)雷达和自动站加密观测资料显示,强天气过程初始阶段,主要表现为多单体回波结构,初始对流都在河南西南部和西部到山西南部的辐合线、干线附近生成,随后逐渐加强,形成多单体回波群(其中部分发展成为非典型超级单体)。成熟阶段,都发展成为线状对流系统,8月7日在河南北部形成由强对流单体组成的不连续的东北西南向线状对流回波,8月1和¨日在河南黄淮平原和华北平原高温高湿环境中形成了有组织的飑线。飑线东移过程中其前侧不断有暖湿空气辐合上升、后侧冷空气下沉辐散,互为对峙的上升和下沉气流相互作用是飑线得以发展和维持的主要原因。(4)对流层中低层相对深厚的暖湿层结及其以上的干层是盛夏西南气流形势下河南强对流天气预报值得关注的内容,CAPE、△θ_(se(850-500))、展开更多
文摘Recent research has shown that winter warmings are phenomenally high compared to summer warmings over the poles,especially over the Arctic.Taking the current scenario into account,this paper attempts to understand the atmospheric variables causing sea ice variability over and around the region of Svalbard for seasons;winter,spring,summer and autumn for the span of 42 years(1979-2021).The variability in atmospheric and oceanic parameters namely temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sea surface salinity are analysed over inter-spatial,inter-seasonal and inter-annual domains.Winters are characterized by inter-annual increasing trend in temperature.During 1981-1990 the rise from the decadal mean is found to be 0.39 K·a^(-1),during 1991-2000 it is 0.20 K·a^(-1),during 2001-2010 it is 0.04 K·a^(-1) and during 2011-2020 it is 0.23 K·a^(-1).Interestingly while considering inter-spatial domains,the region southwest to Svalbard seems to be wetter(0.05 mm·(10 a)-1)compared to its northeast(-0.03 mm·(10 a)-1).Across all the three domains,wind speeds are highest during autumn and then decrease subsequently through summer,spring and are least during winter.Wind is predominantly from the south,and hence it is suspected to carry hot Atlantic air.Additionally,the significant role of salinity in the ocean also plays a key role in governing the fate of sea ice conditions.The long-term forecasts of temperature over seaice of Svalbard are alarming especially for the winter ice(r=-0.84).Correlation matrices between atmospheric and sea ice parameters are shown to gain a better understanding on their inter relation.
文摘利用常规气象观测、区域加密自动站、NCEP/NCAR逐6 h 1°×1°再分析资料和多普勒雷达探测资料,对2013年8月河南三次西南气流型强对流天气的环境条件、回波特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:(1)三次强对流天气均发生在中纬度低槽和副热带高压相互作用,河南高、中、低层受一致西南气流影响的环流背景下,地面存在温度和露点温度梯度及辐合线,大范围强对流天气是在高空槽动力作用和地面辐合线的触发作用下,使得不稳定能量释放而引起。(2)三次强对流天气对流层中下层有比较深厚的暖湿层结,热力和水汽条件充分,对流层中上层有明显干层,从而形成了低层暖湿、上层比较干冷的对流不稳定大气层结。强的垂直风切变位于对流层中下层,对流有效位能非常大,配合一定的动力抬升条件,有利于超级单体和飑线的发生和发展。综合来看,8月1日不稳定、水汽、垂直切变和动力条件最强,1 1日次之,7日相对较弱。强对流形成条件的强弱对对流系统的组织结构有一定影响。(3)雷达和自动站加密观测资料显示,强天气过程初始阶段,主要表现为多单体回波结构,初始对流都在河南西南部和西部到山西南部的辐合线、干线附近生成,随后逐渐加强,形成多单体回波群(其中部分发展成为非典型超级单体)。成熟阶段,都发展成为线状对流系统,8月7日在河南北部形成由强对流单体组成的不连续的东北西南向线状对流回波,8月1和¨日在河南黄淮平原和华北平原高温高湿环境中形成了有组织的飑线。飑线东移过程中其前侧不断有暖湿空气辐合上升、后侧冷空气下沉辐散,互为对峙的上升和下沉气流相互作用是飑线得以发展和维持的主要原因。(4)对流层中低层相对深厚的暖湿层结及其以上的干层是盛夏西南气流形势下河南强对流天气预报值得关注的内容,CAPE、△θ_(se(850-500))、
