The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model metho...The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, gui展开更多
China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in Chi...China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population d展开更多
Floating population plays an important role in the development of cities,regions,and countries.The economic growth path with Guangdong characteristics is inseparable from the support of highly educated groups.Studying...Floating population plays an important role in the development of cities,regions,and countries.The economic growth path with Guangdong characteristics is inseparable from the support of highly educated groups.Studying the long-term residence intention of the highly educated floating population is helpful for the city to attract and retain talents.From the perspective of social integration,using CMDS 2017 data and taking Guangdong Province for example,this paper studies the influencing factors of long-term residence intention through SPSS logistic regression,taking intra-provincial and inter-provincial floating population with a bachelor’s degree or above as sample.The main conclusions are:(1)Marital and childbearing status is the primitive influencing factor of long-term residence intention among intra-provincial and inter-provincial floating population.Samples with high income,under social insurance system,being female and having non-agricultural hukou,are tend to prefer long-term residence.Samples who connect with the locals and participate in social public welfare are more likely to stay.(2)Personal age and city livability have a significant positive impact on the long-term residence intention of the inter-provincial highly educated floating population,but agricultural hukou and self-employed laborer status will weaken the long-term residence intention of this group.(3)Participation in townsmen/alumni association has a positive effect on the long-term residence intention of the intra-provincial highly educated floating population,and connection with outlanders also promotes the long-term residence intention of this group.(4)The long-term residence intention of inter-provincial highly educated floating population is usually based on reality,therefore they pay more attention to the development,changes,and livability of the destination city.However,the long-term residence intention of intra-provincial highly educated floating population is usually based on perception,so they pay more attention to whether they l展开更多
基金Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Land and ResourcesScience and technology foundation project,No.2011FY110400
文摘The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, gui
基金Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71433008 Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZZD-EW-06-04+2 种基金 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271174 National Key Technology R＆D Program, No.2012BAI32B06 Beijing Planning of Philosophy and Social Science, No. 13CSC011
文摘China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population d
文摘Floating population plays an important role in the development of cities,regions,and countries.The economic growth path with Guangdong characteristics is inseparable from the support of highly educated groups.Studying the long-term residence intention of the highly educated floating population is helpful for the city to attract and retain talents.From the perspective of social integration,using CMDS 2017 data and taking Guangdong Province for example,this paper studies the influencing factors of long-term residence intention through SPSS logistic regression,taking intra-provincial and inter-provincial floating population with a bachelor’s degree or above as sample.The main conclusions are:(1)Marital and childbearing status is the primitive influencing factor of long-term residence intention among intra-provincial and inter-provincial floating population.Samples with high income,under social insurance system,being female and having non-agricultural hukou,are tend to prefer long-term residence.Samples who connect with the locals and participate in social public welfare are more likely to stay.(2)Personal age and city livability have a significant positive impact on the long-term residence intention of the inter-provincial highly educated floating population,but agricultural hukou and self-employed laborer status will weaken the long-term residence intention of this group.(3)Participation in townsmen/alumni association has a positive effect on the long-term residence intention of the intra-provincial highly educated floating population,and connection with outlanders also promotes the long-term residence intention of this group.(4)The long-term residence intention of inter-provincial highly educated floating population is usually based on reality,therefore they pay more attention to the development,changes,and livability of the destination city.However,the long-term residence intention of intra-provincial highly educated floating population is usually based on perception,so they pay more attention to whether they l
