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Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games 被引量:1
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作者 李晓莉 田华 邓国 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2011年第5期568-580,共13页
Based on the B08RDP(Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project) that was launched by the World Weather Research Programme(WWRP) in 2004,a regional ensemble prediction... Based on the B08RDP(Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project) that was launched by the World Weather Research Programme(WWRP) in 2004,a regional ensemble prediction system(REPS) at a 15-km horizontal resolution was developed at the National Meteorological Center(NMC) of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).Supplementing to the forecasters' subjective affirmation on the promising performance of the REPS during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games(BOG),this paper focuses on the objective verification of the REPS for precipitation forecasts during the BOG period.By use of a set of advanced probabilistic verification scores,the value of the REPS compared to the quasi-operational global ensemble prediction system(GEPS) is assessed for a 36-day period(21 July-24 August 2008).The evaluation here involves different aspects of the REPS and GEPS,including their general forecast skills,specific attributes(reliability and resolution),and related economic values.The results indicate that the REPS generally performs significantly better for the short-range precipitation forecasts than the GEPS,and for light to heavy rainfall events,the REPS provides more skillful forecasts for accumulated 6-and 24-h precipitation.By further identifying the performance of the REPS through the attribute-focused measures,it is found that the advantages of the REPS over the GEPS come from better reliability(smaller biases and better dispersion) and increased resolution.Also,evaluation of a decision-making score reveals that a much larger group of users benefits from using the REPS forecasts than using the single model(the control run) forecasts,especially for the heavy rainfall events. 展开更多
关键词 regional ensemble prediction ensemble verification probabilistic scores
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区域集合预报系统2m温度预报的校准技术 被引量:35
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作者 王敏 李晓莉 +1 位作者 范广洲 李泽椿 《应用气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第4期395-401,共7页
采用非齐次高斯回归(NGR)技术对国家气象中心区域集合预报系统的2 m温度预报结果开展了一阶偏差和二阶离散度的校准研究。对预报结果比较详尽的检验分析表明:校准后的2 m温度预报可靠性和预报技巧均显著提高,表现为校准后集合预报成员... 采用非齐次高斯回归(NGR)技术对国家气象中心区域集合预报系统的2 m温度预报结果开展了一阶偏差和二阶离散度的校准研究。对预报结果比较详尽的检验分析表明:校准后的2 m温度预报可靠性和预报技巧均显著提高,表现为校准后集合预报成员的均方根误差与离散度更为接近;原Talagrand直方图中的"L"形分布现象得到有效改善;Brier评分、最小连续分级概率评分(CRPS)明显减小,相对作用特征(ROC)面积增大,说明校准后的2 m温度预报表现出更好的预报技能。此外,NGR技术与自适应误差订正技术的对比试验表明,NGR在消除集合平均偏差和提高集合离散度两个方面均有优势。 展开更多
关键词 集合预报 偏差校准 非齐次高斯回归(NGR) 检验评分
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