The forecasting of the failure time of a slope remains a worldwide problem because of many different possibilities of geological conditions in combination with many varying external factors such as climate and vegetat...The forecasting of the failure time of a slope remains a worldwide problem because of many different possibilities of geological conditions in combination with many varying external factors such as climate and vegetation,and not well-defined or unknown time effects in deformation and failure models.The aim of this paper is to suggest a new method to carry out the phase division and to explore tangential angular features of the displacement-time curve of creep slopes as well as the acceleration characteristics in the process of slope deformation and the pre-warning criteria for critical failure.An imminent failure is pro-ceeded with usually three basic deformation phases,namely primary creep("decelerated") ,secondary creep("steadystate") and tertiary creep("accelerated") .Mostly,only during the accelerated phase the imminence of a possible slope failure is rec-ognized.The analysis of displacement data from a series of landslides allowed to recognize different evolutionary patterns of displacement.A quantitative approach was proposed to describe the tangential angle of the displacement-time curve and a new criterion based on the angle was put forward to divide the accelerated phase into three sub-phases:initial acceleration,medium acceleration,and the critical failure.A pre-warning criterion for critical failure is also proposed consequently. Changes of acceleration showed completely different characteristics from those of cumulative displacement and displacement in the process of slope deformation.The values of acceleration usually oscillate around 0 prior to the critical failure phase,whereas the acceleration increases abruptly when the deformation moves into the critical failure phase.This allows,therefore,for a method to forecast the time of the failure.So it is possible to define different alert acceleration threshold values to be used for emergency management.展开更多
准确预测电容器组在一段时间内的电容,分析其变化趋势,对并联电容器组的安全使用、延长寿命有很重要的意义。本文提出一种基于Microsoft时序算法,采用电能质量监测数据的10 k V侧并联电容器组电容预测模型,并在此基础上设计了并联电容...准确预测电容器组在一段时间内的电容,分析其变化趋势,对并联电容器组的安全使用、延长寿命有很重要的意义。本文提出一种基于Microsoft时序算法,采用电能质量监测数据的10 k V侧并联电容器组电容预测模型,并在此基础上设计了并联电容组电容趋势分析及预测预警系统。通过该系统,用户不仅能够监测电容器组的运行状态,为电容器组故障分析提供可靠依据,而且可以预测电容器组电容值的变化趋势,并实现其寿命预警。实际运行效果验证了该模型的可行性与准确性。展开更多
基金supported by Ya-lung River Joint Research Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China and ErTan Hydropower Development Company Ltd.(Grants No.50579099)the National Basic Research Program"973"+2 种基金Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(Grant No.2008CB425801)the Creative Team Program of the Ministry of Education in China(Grant No. IRT0812)the Major Cultivation Project in University Scientific and Technological Innovation Program of the Ministry of Education,the Development of Monitoring and Forecast System for Geohazards Based on WEB
文摘The forecasting of the failure time of a slope remains a worldwide problem because of many different possibilities of geological conditions in combination with many varying external factors such as climate and vegetation,and not well-defined or unknown time effects in deformation and failure models.The aim of this paper is to suggest a new method to carry out the phase division and to explore tangential angular features of the displacement-time curve of creep slopes as well as the acceleration characteristics in the process of slope deformation and the pre-warning criteria for critical failure.An imminent failure is pro-ceeded with usually three basic deformation phases,namely primary creep("decelerated") ,secondary creep("steadystate") and tertiary creep("accelerated") .Mostly,only during the accelerated phase the imminence of a possible slope failure is rec-ognized.The analysis of displacement data from a series of landslides allowed to recognize different evolutionary patterns of displacement.A quantitative approach was proposed to describe the tangential angle of the displacement-time curve and a new criterion based on the angle was put forward to divide the accelerated phase into three sub-phases:initial acceleration,medium acceleration,and the critical failure.A pre-warning criterion for critical failure is also proposed consequently. Changes of acceleration showed completely different characteristics from those of cumulative displacement and displacement in the process of slope deformation.The values of acceleration usually oscillate around 0 prior to the critical failure phase,whereas the acceleration increases abruptly when the deformation moves into the critical failure phase.This allows,therefore,for a method to forecast the time of the failure.So it is possible to define different alert acceleration threshold values to be used for emergency management.
文摘准确预测电容器组在一段时间内的电容,分析其变化趋势,对并联电容器组的安全使用、延长寿命有很重要的意义。本文提出一种基于Microsoft时序算法,采用电能质量监测数据的10 k V侧并联电容器组电容预测模型,并在此基础上设计了并联电容组电容趋势分析及预测预警系统。通过该系统,用户不仅能够监测电容器组的运行状态,为电容器组故障分析提供可靠依据,而且可以预测电容器组电容值的变化趋势,并实现其寿命预警。实际运行效果验证了该模型的可行性与准确性。
