潜在植被是指在没有人为干扰、在现有的环境条件下,植被的全部演替系列完成时立地应该存在的植被状况。西北干旱区生态环境问题突出,以潜在植被为研究对象来探究西北干旱区植被背景及其变化规律,成为西部生态环境恢复重建的基础性工作...潜在植被是指在没有人为干扰、在现有的环境条件下,植被的全部演替系列完成时立地应该存在的植被状况。西北干旱区生态环境问题突出,以潜在植被为研究对象来探究西北干旱区植被背景及其变化规律,成为西部生态环境恢复重建的基础性工作。本研究以IOCSG(integrated orderly classification system of grassland)模型为潜在植被评定模型,在GIS研究方法的支持下,对西北干旱区潜在植被进行了模拟,并对其动态变化进行了分析,得出以下结论:1)采用IOCSG评定模型对中国西北干旱区潜在植被分布进行了模拟,通过检验得出,IOCSG评定模型对研究区植被模拟精度达到了78%,较好的重现了研究区潜在植被分布格局。2)分布在研究区的潜在植被类型有21类,不同区域植被的多样性差异较大。天山、阿尔泰山一带及大兴安岭地区植被分布较为丰富。相比之下,准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地、巴丹吉林沙漠地区分布比较单一,主要以荒漠、半荒漠为主。3)由于立地气候环境的改变,区域植被系统表现出不稳定性,主要表现为4个特点:扩展变化、缩减变化、波动性变化以及消亡变化。4)气候环境适应性的改变使潜在植被发生了演替过程,从2个周期的变化来看,天山、阿尔泰山、大兴安岭及以西地区以及呼伦贝尔高原地区成为植被演替的敏感区。展开更多
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and...Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and in the future 35 years（2016–2050）. Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.展开更多
在对1980年以来气候要素进行空间化的基础上,利用分类回归树模型CART计算中国的潜在归一化植被指数(NDVI),采用改进的光能利用率模型(CASA)和潜在NDVI数据对中国的潜在植被净初级生产力(NPP)进行模拟。结果表明:中国潜在NDVI和潜在NPP...在对1980年以来气候要素进行空间化的基础上,利用分类回归树模型CART计算中国的潜在归一化植被指数(NDVI),采用改进的光能利用率模型(CASA)和潜在NDVI数据对中国的潜在植被净初级生产力(NPP)进行模拟。结果表明:中国潜在NDVI和潜在NPP均呈现出南高北低、东高西低的格局,低值多分布在沙漠、戈壁等干旱地带,高值多出现在低、中山平原区;400 mm等降水量线是潜在NDVI和潜在NPP高值与低值的分界线;全国潜在NDVI和潜在NPP的平均值分别为0.396和319.31 g C·m-2;夏季潜在NPP的平均值最大,其次是春季,冬季最小;依据潜在NPP与2015年现实NPP的差异,可将中国植被恢复区划分为西部高潜力区、北部低潜力区和南部非潜力区3部分;潜在NDVI和潜在NPP的空间模拟可以将人类活动对自然生态系统的直接影响与气候变化的影响分离,量化了外界压力下真实的生态状况和潜在生态状况的差异,为制定差别化的生态恢复对策提供了科学依据。展开更多
The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961 1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences durin...The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961 1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961-1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections, together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961-1990. In contrast, potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s, but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961 1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s, particularly in western China. Additionally, there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s, which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35°N and to the joint changes of surface temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35°N.展开更多
草地综合顺序分类法(comprehensive and sequential classification system of grassland,CSCS)经过60多年的不断探索和完善,已成为具有中国知识产权的唯一的可数量化的草地分类系统。特别是2008年任继周等在Rangeland Journal专门著文...草地综合顺序分类法(comprehensive and sequential classification system of grassland,CSCS)经过60多年的不断探索和完善,已成为具有中国知识产权的唯一的可数量化的草地分类系统。特别是2008年任继周等在Rangeland Journal专门著文推介CSCS,开启了CSCS在国内外研究的新高潮。本研究以CSCS作为关键词从Wed of Science及中国知网等科技论文数据库检索得2008-2020年发表的中英文文献分别为48和29篇。通过系统梳理,获得最新的研究成果如下:1)将CSCS与国际公认的Holdridge Life Zone、BIOME4分类体系在全球尺度上进行对比验证,论证了CSCS在草地类型划分方面的突出优势;2)使用数字高程模型数据的坡度、坡向和坡度变化率等因子修正传统空间插值法,引入海拔、坡度等变量的多元回归和残差分析插值法,有效解决高海拔和复杂地形所带来的气候数据插值误差,提高了CSCS的模拟精度,也为深入广泛的应用提供了方法论依据;3)基于CSCS发生学特征,研究草地对全球气候变化的响应。现已在区域、全国及全球尺度上研究草地生态系统对全球气候变化的响应,为进一步的草地精细化分类管理和相关政策制定提供了数据基础;4)热量状况和水分条件的组合是草原现象和过程的本质的因素,以CSCS为理论框架,用分类指标为参数构建草地第一性生产力(NPP)分类指数模型,该模型不仅揭示草地类型与其净第一性生产力的内在联系,也为进一步研究地带性草地类型的生产潜力、草地净第一性生产力的区域分布和全球分布提供了可能。在区域、全国和全球尺度上的比较验证可知,基于CSCS的草地NPP模型已发展成为草地生态系统第一性生产力评估及碳汇计算的新工具。未来CSCS研究亟待开展的工作主要有:1)完善CSCS亚类及型的定量分类体系;2)通过开发CSCS方法在草地营养载畜量和生态服务价值评估等方面的应用,完善基�展开更多
文摘潜在植被是指在没有人为干扰、在现有的环境条件下,植被的全部演替系列完成时立地应该存在的植被状况。西北干旱区生态环境问题突出,以潜在植被为研究对象来探究西北干旱区植被背景及其变化规律,成为西部生态环境恢复重建的基础性工作。本研究以IOCSG(integrated orderly classification system of grassland)模型为潜在植被评定模型,在GIS研究方法的支持下,对西北干旱区潜在植被进行了模拟,并对其动态变化进行了分析,得出以下结论:1)采用IOCSG评定模型对中国西北干旱区潜在植被分布进行了模拟,通过检验得出,IOCSG评定模型对研究区植被模拟精度达到了78%,较好的重现了研究区潜在植被分布格局。2)分布在研究区的潜在植被类型有21类,不同区域植被的多样性差异较大。天山、阿尔泰山一带及大兴安岭地区植被分布较为丰富。相比之下,准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地、巴丹吉林沙漠地区分布比较单一,主要以荒漠、半荒漠为主。3)由于立地气候环境的改变,区域植被系统表现出不稳定性,主要表现为4个特点:扩展变化、缩减变化、波动性变化以及消亡变化。4)气候环境适应性的改变使潜在植被发生了演替过程,从2个周期的变化来看,天山、阿尔泰山、大兴安岭及以西地区以及呼伦贝尔高原地区成为植被演替的敏感区。
基金Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749 Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education,No.15ZB0023+1 种基金 Youth Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41301196,No.41501202 Chongqing Foundation and Advanced Research Project,No.cstc2014jcyj A0808
文摘Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and in the future 35 years（2016–2050）. Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.
文摘在对1980年以来气候要素进行空间化的基础上,利用分类回归树模型CART计算中国的潜在归一化植被指数(NDVI),采用改进的光能利用率模型(CASA)和潜在NDVI数据对中国的潜在植被净初级生产力(NPP)进行模拟。结果表明:中国潜在NDVI和潜在NPP均呈现出南高北低、东高西低的格局,低值多分布在沙漠、戈壁等干旱地带,高值多出现在低、中山平原区;400 mm等降水量线是潜在NDVI和潜在NPP高值与低值的分界线;全国潜在NDVI和潜在NPP的平均值分别为0.396和319.31 g C·m-2;夏季潜在NPP的平均值最大,其次是春季,冬季最小;依据潜在NPP与2015年现实NPP的差异,可将中国植被恢复区划分为西部高潜力区、北部低潜力区和南部非潜力区3部分;潜在NDVI和潜在NPP的空间模拟可以将人类活动对自然生态系统的直接影响与气候变化的影响分离,量化了外界压力下真实的生态状况和潜在生态状况的差异,为制定差别化的生态恢复对策提供了科学依据。
文摘The ability of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models to reproduce East Asian monthly surface temperature and precipitation climatologies during 1961 1990 is evaluated. January and July climate differences during the 2050s and 2090s relative to 1961-1990 projected by the seven-model ensemble under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 scenarios are then briefly discussed. These projections, together with the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, are subsequently used to drive the biome model BIOME3 to simulate potential vegetation distribution in China during the 2050s and 2090s. It is revealed that potential vegetation belts during the 2050s shift northward greatly in central and eastern China compared to those during 1961-1990. In contrast, potential vegetation change is slight in western China on the whole. The spatial pattern of potential vegetation during the 2090s is generally similar to that during the 2050s, but the range of potential vegetation change against 1961 1990 is more extensive during the 2090s than the 2050s, particularly in western China. Additionally, there exists model-dependent uncertainty of potential vegetation change under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s, which is due to the scatter of projected climate change by the models. The projected change in potential vegetation under the SRES A2 scenario during the 2090s is attributable to surface temperature change south of 35°N and to the joint changes of surface temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration north of 35°N.
文摘草地综合顺序分类法(comprehensive and sequential classification system of grassland,CSCS)经过60多年的不断探索和完善,已成为具有中国知识产权的唯一的可数量化的草地分类系统。特别是2008年任继周等在Rangeland Journal专门著文推介CSCS,开启了CSCS在国内外研究的新高潮。本研究以CSCS作为关键词从Wed of Science及中国知网等科技论文数据库检索得2008-2020年发表的中英文文献分别为48和29篇。通过系统梳理,获得最新的研究成果如下:1)将CSCS与国际公认的Holdridge Life Zone、BIOME4分类体系在全球尺度上进行对比验证,论证了CSCS在草地类型划分方面的突出优势;2)使用数字高程模型数据的坡度、坡向和坡度变化率等因子修正传统空间插值法,引入海拔、坡度等变量的多元回归和残差分析插值法,有效解决高海拔和复杂地形所带来的气候数据插值误差,提高了CSCS的模拟精度,也为深入广泛的应用提供了方法论依据;3)基于CSCS发生学特征,研究草地对全球气候变化的响应。现已在区域、全国及全球尺度上研究草地生态系统对全球气候变化的响应,为进一步的草地精细化分类管理和相关政策制定提供了数据基础;4)热量状况和水分条件的组合是草原现象和过程的本质的因素,以CSCS为理论框架,用分类指标为参数构建草地第一性生产力(NPP)分类指数模型,该模型不仅揭示草地类型与其净第一性生产力的内在联系,也为进一步研究地带性草地类型的生产潜力、草地净第一性生产力的区域分布和全球分布提供了可能。在区域、全国和全球尺度上的比较验证可知,基于CSCS的草地NPP模型已发展成为草地生态系统第一性生产力评估及碳汇计算的新工具。未来CSCS研究亟待开展的工作主要有:1)完善CSCS亚类及型的定量分类体系;2)通过开发CSCS方法在草地营养载畜量和生态服务价值评估等方面的应用,完善基�
