综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度...综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度策略的制定带来挑战,而且会对系统的可靠性产生影响,甚至可能引起负荷断供。针对上述问题,首先提出了基于改进PMV-PPD(predicted mean vote-predicted percentage of dissatisfied)指标的用户参与意愿评估模型;其次,基于云模型理论,建立了考虑混合不确定性的价格型IDR模型;在此基础上,综合考虑各类能源响应量边界和价格弹性系数等因素的不确定性,提出了IES优化调度策略。算例结果表明所提的IES优化调度策略可以更好地应对IDR不确定性带来的负荷波动,有效提升系统可靠性。展开更多
This study investigates the cloud macro-and micro-physical characteristics in the convective and stratiform regions and their different responses to the seeding for mixed convective-stratiform clouds that occurred in ...This study investigates the cloud macro-and micro-physical characteristics in the convective and stratiform regions and their different responses to the seeding for mixed convective-stratiform clouds that occurred in Shandong province on 21 May 2018,based on the observations from the aircraft,the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership(NPP)satellite,and the high-resolution Himawari-8(H8)satellite.The aircraft observations show that convection was deeper and radar echoes were significantly enhanced with higher tops in response to seeding in the convective region.This is linked with the conversion of supercooled liquid droplets to ice crystals with released latent heat,resulting in strengthened updrafts,enhanced radar echoes,higher cloud tops,and more and larger precipitation particles.In contrast,in the stratiform cloud region,after the Silver Iodide(AgI)seeding,the radar echoes become significantly weaker at heights close to the seeding layer,with the echo tops lowered by 1.4–1.7 km.In addition,a hollow structure appears at the height of 6.2–7.8 km with a depth of about 1.6 km and a diameter of about 5.5 km,and features such as icing seeding tracks appear.These suggest that the transformation between droplets and ice particles was accelerated by the seeding in the stratiform part.The NPP and H8 satellites also show that convective activity was stronger in the convective region after seeding;while in the stratiform region,a cloud seeding track with a width of 1–3 km appears 10 km downstream of the seeding layer 15 minutes after the AgI seeding,which moves along the wind direction as width increases.展开更多
文摘综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度策略的制定带来挑战,而且会对系统的可靠性产生影响,甚至可能引起负荷断供。针对上述问题,首先提出了基于改进PMV-PPD(predicted mean vote-predicted percentage of dissatisfied)指标的用户参与意愿评估模型;其次,基于云模型理论,建立了考虑混合不确定性的价格型IDR模型;在此基础上,综合考虑各类能源响应量边界和价格弹性系数等因素的不确定性,提出了IES优化调度策略。算例结果表明所提的IES优化调度策略可以更好地应对IDR不确定性带来的负荷波动,有效提升系统可靠性。
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project(Grant No.2019YFA0606803,2016YFA0601704)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41925022)+1 种基金the Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J036)the Science and Technology Development Fund of Hubei Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.2017Y06,2017Y07,2016Y06,2019Y10).
文摘This study investigates the cloud macro-and micro-physical characteristics in the convective and stratiform regions and their different responses to the seeding for mixed convective-stratiform clouds that occurred in Shandong province on 21 May 2018,based on the observations from the aircraft,the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership(NPP)satellite,and the high-resolution Himawari-8(H8)satellite.The aircraft observations show that convection was deeper and radar echoes were significantly enhanced with higher tops in response to seeding in the convective region.This is linked with the conversion of supercooled liquid droplets to ice crystals with released latent heat,resulting in strengthened updrafts,enhanced radar echoes,higher cloud tops,and more and larger precipitation particles.In contrast,in the stratiform cloud region,after the Silver Iodide(AgI)seeding,the radar echoes become significantly weaker at heights close to the seeding layer,with the echo tops lowered by 1.4–1.7 km.In addition,a hollow structure appears at the height of 6.2–7.8 km with a depth of about 1.6 km and a diameter of about 5.5 km,and features such as icing seeding tracks appear.These suggest that the transformation between droplets and ice particles was accelerated by the seeding in the stratiform part.The NPP and H8 satellites also show that convective activity was stronger in the convective region after seeding;while in the stratiform region,a cloud seeding track with a width of 1–3 km appears 10 km downstream of the seeding layer 15 minutes after the AgI seeding,which moves along the wind direction as width increases.
