考虑到冰相云微物理过程对冷锋降雪的数值预报结果起重要作用,针对2014年4月22—24日新疆一次强寒潮引起的冷锋暴雪过程,分别采用WRFv3.5.1中尺度模式中Lin、WSM6、Thompson和WDM6四种云微物理方案进行数值模拟,探究不同云微物理方案对...考虑到冰相云微物理过程对冷锋降雪的数值预报结果起重要作用,针对2014年4月22—24日新疆一次强寒潮引起的冷锋暴雪过程,分别采用WRFv3.5.1中尺度模式中Lin、WSM6、Thompson和WDM6四种云微物理方案进行数值模拟,探究不同云微物理方案对其预报结果的影响。从降水预报结果看,四种方案对中天山强降雪中心的预报能力明显优于伊犁河谷地区,Lin方案对中天山强降雪中心的雨强变化趋势、起止时间以及强降水落区的预报能力总体优于其他三种方案。从温湿特征预报结果来看,四种方案对降雪过程前后的温度和过程之后的露点温度预报效果均较好,但对过程前期800 h Pa以上的露点温度预报偏高,这可能由于模式预报的降雪时间较实况提前、预报降水量偏大引起;四种方案预报的潜热通量和感热通量的量值与再分析资料有一定差异,但对其变化趋势的预报与再分析资料较一致。从云微物理特征来看,不同方案预报的水凝物粒子总量有所差异,但均以冰相粒子为主,且其变化趋势与强降雪时段比较一致。不同方案之间水凝物粒子含量差异也较大,Lin方案中霰和雪粒子含量最多,WSM6和WDM6两种方案以雪和冰粒子最多,Thompson方案中几乎全部为雪粒子。展开更多
This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES...This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES_Meso）. A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme（WSM6）, and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei（CCN）number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration（Nc） but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration（Nr）, inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.展开更多
分别利用weather research and forecasting（WRF）中尺度模式中的bulk和bin微物理参数化方案,对2014年7月12日发生在华东地区的一次飑线过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明：bulk方案基本模拟出了飑线初生、发展、成熟和消亡的生命史,但与...分别利用weather research and forecasting（WRF）中尺度模式中的bulk和bin微物理参数化方案,对2014年7月12日发生在华东地区的一次飑线过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明：bulk方案基本模拟出了飑线初生、发展、成熟和消亡的生命史,但与实况存在1~2 h的延迟,且强度偏弱;而bin方案模拟的雷达回波结构松散,组织化程度较低,更类似于现状对流。从模拟的地面降水看,bin方案模拟的雨带偏窄,且强降水区偏北;而bulk方案则基本模拟出了强降水区的位置。在此基础上进一步分析了两种方案模拟的各水凝物的垂直分布,结果表明bulk方案在高层产生了大量云冰,而bin方案中雪和霰粒子数量较多。展开更多
文摘考虑到冰相云微物理过程对冷锋降雪的数值预报结果起重要作用,针对2014年4月22—24日新疆一次强寒潮引起的冷锋暴雪过程,分别采用WRFv3.5.1中尺度模式中Lin、WSM6、Thompson和WDM6四种云微物理方案进行数值模拟,探究不同云微物理方案对其预报结果的影响。从降水预报结果看,四种方案对中天山强降雪中心的预报能力明显优于伊犁河谷地区,Lin方案对中天山强降雪中心的雨强变化趋势、起止时间以及强降水落区的预报能力总体优于其他三种方案。从温湿特征预报结果来看,四种方案对降雪过程前后的温度和过程之后的露点温度预报效果均较好,但对过程前期800 h Pa以上的露点温度预报偏高,这可能由于模式预报的降雪时间较实况提前、预报降水量偏大引起;四种方案预报的潜热通量和感热通量的量值与再分析资料有一定差异,但对其变化趋势的预报与再分析资料较一致。从云微物理特征来看,不同方案预报的水凝物粒子总量有所差异,但均以冰相粒子为主,且其变化趋势与强降雪时段比较一致。不同方案之间水凝物粒子含量差异也较大,Lin方案中霰和雪粒子含量最多,WSM6和WDM6两种方案以雪和冰粒子最多,Thompson方案中几乎全部为雪粒子。
基金Supported by the National Key Project(2016YFC0203306)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41590874)+2 种基金National(Key)973 Program(2014CB441201)Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences’ Project(2017Z001)Key Project of Air Pollution Cause and Control(DQGG0104)
文摘This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model double-moment 6-class（WDM6） microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System（GRAPES_Meso）. A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme（WSM6）, and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei（CCN）number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration（Nc） but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration（Nr）, inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.
文摘分别利用weather research and forecasting（WRF）中尺度模式中的bulk和bin微物理参数化方案,对2014年7月12日发生在华东地区的一次飑线过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明：bulk方案基本模拟出了飑线初生、发展、成熟和消亡的生命史,但与实况存在1~2 h的延迟,且强度偏弱;而bin方案模拟的雷达回波结构松散,组织化程度较低,更类似于现状对流。从模拟的地面降水看,bin方案模拟的雨带偏窄,且强降水区偏北;而bulk方案则基本模拟出了强降水区的位置。在此基础上进一步分析了两种方案模拟的各水凝物的垂直分布,结果表明bulk方案在高层产生了大量云冰,而bin方案中雪和霰粒子数量较多。
基金the National Key Project of China(No.GJXM92579)the Aero⁃nautic Science Foundation of China(No.2018ZA53014)the Shenyang Key Laboratory of Aircraft Icing and Ice Protection.
