With the method of dynamic programming, two spatial variables,the expected utility and the probability of success of each crime, are used to model the criminal's location choices in urban areas in this paper.The m...With the method of dynamic programming, two spatial variables,the expected utility and the probability of success of each crime, are used to model the criminal's location choices in urban areas in this paper.The modeling results show that a criminal optimizes his crime locations according to the expected utility and the success probability during his planned period A criminal usually commits his first offense in the district that has the highest probability of success but a lower expected utility, and commits his last crime in the district where the expected utility is the highest and success probability is lower.If a location has both an expected utility and a higher probability of success, the criminal might commit all his offenses in thes place. The model also suggests that crime prevention measures should be adopted in accordance with local conditions. 'Covering' measures, such as patrolling, should be taken in the poor residential districts or juvenile delinquency districts, while more sophisticated and advanced measures should be introduced in the richer districts or the districts where professional criminals haunt.展开更多
文摘With the method of dynamic programming, two spatial variables,the expected utility and the probability of success of each crime, are used to model the criminal's location choices in urban areas in this paper.The modeling results show that a criminal optimizes his crime locations according to the expected utility and the success probability during his planned period A criminal usually commits his first offense in the district that has the highest probability of success but a lower expected utility, and commits his last crime in the district where the expected utility is the highest and success probability is lower.If a location has both an expected utility and a higher probability of success, the criminal might commit all his offenses in thes place. The model also suggests that crime prevention measures should be adopted in accordance with local conditions. 'Covering' measures, such as patrolling, should be taken in the poor residential districts or juvenile delinquency districts, while more sophisticated and advanced measures should be introduced in the richer districts or the districts where professional criminals haunt.
