By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice mode...By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/ NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.展开更多
Using the monthly mean reanalysis data of height, wind and vertical velocity of NCEP/NCAR from 1958 to 2003, the characteristics of 500hPa height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, convergence and divergence on the...Using the monthly mean reanalysis data of height, wind and vertical velocity of NCEP/NCAR from 1958 to 2003, the characteristics of 500hPa height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, convergence and divergence on the levels of 200hPa and 925hPa and vertical stream over the Shandong province were studied and compared with that over North China. The study shows that the teleconnection pattern called East Asia-Pacific pattern (EAP) plays important roles in the summer rainfall of Shandong. Weaker Okhotsk sea high, stronger upward stream over tropical areas and Shandong and northward location of subtropical high and stronger Indian low, are likely to lead to more rain in Shandong province in summer, but there are some flood (drought) years in which these characteristics such as the location and intensity of subtropical high change with the least extent. The difference between Shandong and North China in 500hPa height is that there is a teleconnection pattern called Europe / Asia pattern in North China, while there is a negative East Asia Pattern in Shandong during drought years. There is a teleconnection relation between Shandong summer rainfall and convective activities happening in tropical areas in spring and summer accomplished by the Rossby waves. During the flood years in Shandong, the convective activities happening in tropical India Ocean and tropical west Pacific and Walker circulation are much stronger than that during the drought years, but the convective activities happening in tropical east Pacific are weaker than those during the drought years.展开更多
Using OLR and 850 hPa and 200 hPa wind fields data (1979 - 2006), this paper diagnoses the characteristics of convection over the tropical area in preceding autumns and winters in association with April precipitation ...Using OLR and 850 hPa and 200 hPa wind fields data (1979 - 2006), this paper diagnoses the characteristics of convection over the tropical area in preceding autumns and winters in association with April precipitation anomalies in Shandong province. It is found that preceding convection anomalies over the Western Pacific Warm Pool in December have close relationships with the April precipitation in Shandong. Further analysis of the relationship with the general circulation over the East Asia shows that the convection anomaly over the Western Pacific Warm Pool has close relationships with the Main East Asian Trough, the Hadley cell over East Asia and the Walker cell. The characteristics of East Asian atmospheric circulation anomalies accompanied with stronger (weaker) convection are consistent with those of less (more) April precipitation anomalies in Shandong. Therefore, the convection anomaly over the tropics in December may be an important indicator for April precipitation in Shandong.展开更多
以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气...以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气耦合模式对东亚季风区夏季降水和环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式基本上都能够模拟出降水由东亚东南部海洋至东亚西北部中国内陆减少的空间分布特征,部分模式能够模拟出降水的部分主要模态;(2)大部分模式基本上能够模拟出中国东部陆地降水的季节进退。但同时也存在相当的差异,这包括:(1)多数模式普遍存在模拟降水量偏少、降水变幅偏小的缺陷;(2)雨带的季节推进过程与观测存在一定偏差,尤其海洋上的季节进退过程模拟较差,有的模式甚至不能模拟出东亚季风区东部海洋上大致的季节进程。因此,模式对东亚季风区降水的模拟能力还是比较有限的,需要进一步改进。多模式集合的夏季环流场以偏弱为主,不利于降水的形成,这在中国东部大陆部分比较明显。另外,空气湿度模拟值偏低、从而造成水汽输送偏弱也是导致东亚季风区夏季降水模拟偏小的原因之一。展开更多
基金This research was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G1998040900-Patr 1)the Operational Fund of National Climate Center.
文摘By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal, interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982—1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/ NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.
基金Dedicated Research Fund for Public Interest from the Ministry of Science and Technology (2001DIB20104) "Relationship Between Subtropical Monsoon Circulation and Summer Precipitation in Shandong", a key science project for 2002 in the Shandong province.
文摘Using the monthly mean reanalysis data of height, wind and vertical velocity of NCEP/NCAR from 1958 to 2003, the characteristics of 500hPa height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, convergence and divergence on the levels of 200hPa and 925hPa and vertical stream over the Shandong province were studied and compared with that over North China. The study shows that the teleconnection pattern called East Asia-Pacific pattern (EAP) plays important roles in the summer rainfall of Shandong. Weaker Okhotsk sea high, stronger upward stream over tropical areas and Shandong and northward location of subtropical high and stronger Indian low, are likely to lead to more rain in Shandong province in summer, but there are some flood (drought) years in which these characteristics such as the location and intensity of subtropical high change with the least extent. The difference between Shandong and North China in 500hPa height is that there is a teleconnection pattern called Europe / Asia pattern in North China, while there is a negative East Asia Pattern in Shandong during drought years. There is a teleconnection relation between Shandong summer rainfall and convective activities happening in tropical areas in spring and summer accomplished by the Rossby waves. During the flood years in Shandong, the convective activities happening in tropical India Ocean and tropical west Pacific and Walker circulation are much stronger than that during the drought years, but the convective activities happening in tropical east Pacific are weaker than those during the drought years.
文摘Using OLR and 850 hPa and 200 hPa wind fields data (1979 - 2006), this paper diagnoses the characteristics of convection over the tropical area in preceding autumns and winters in association with April precipitation anomalies in Shandong province. It is found that preceding convection anomalies over the Western Pacific Warm Pool in December have close relationships with the April precipitation in Shandong. Further analysis of the relationship with the general circulation over the East Asia shows that the convection anomaly over the Western Pacific Warm Pool has close relationships with the Main East Asian Trough, the Hadley cell over East Asia and the Walker cell. The characteristics of East Asian atmospheric circulation anomalies accompanied with stronger (weaker) convection are consistent with those of less (more) April precipitation anomalies in Shandong. Therefore, the convection anomaly over the tropics in December may be an important indicator for April precipitation in Shandong.
文摘以CMAP(Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)月平均降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的40年再分析资料集ERA40为观测基础,分析了当前政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的17个全球海气耦合模式对东亚季风区夏季降水和环流的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)模式基本上都能够模拟出降水由东亚东南部海洋至东亚西北部中国内陆减少的空间分布特征,部分模式能够模拟出降水的部分主要模态;(2)大部分模式基本上能够模拟出中国东部陆地降水的季节进退。但同时也存在相当的差异,这包括:(1)多数模式普遍存在模拟降水量偏少、降水变幅偏小的缺陷;(2)雨带的季节推进过程与观测存在一定偏差,尤其海洋上的季节进退过程模拟较差,有的模式甚至不能模拟出东亚季风区东部海洋上大致的季节进程。因此,模式对东亚季风区降水的模拟能力还是比较有限的,需要进一步改进。多模式集合的夏季环流场以偏弱为主,不利于降水的形成,这在中国东部大陆部分比较明显。另外,空气湿度模拟值偏低、从而造成水汽输送偏弱也是导致东亚季风区夏季降水模拟偏小的原因之一。
