The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)is a joint mission of the European Space Agency(ESA)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).Primary goals are investigating the dynamic response of the Eart...The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)is a joint mission of the European Space Agency(ESA)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).Primary goals are investigating the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind(SW)impact via simultaneous in situ magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field measurements,X-Ray images of the magnetosheath and magnetic cusps,and UV images of global auroral distributions.Magnetopause deformations associated with magnetosheath high speed jets(HSJs)under a quasi-parallel interplanetary magnetic field condition are studied using a threedimensional(3-D)global hybrid simulation.Soft X-ray intensity calculated based on both physical quantities of solar wind proton and oxygen ions is compared.We obtain key findings concerning deformations at the magnetopause:(1)Magnetopause deformations are highly coherent with the magnetosheath HSJs generated at the quasi-parallel region of the bow shock,(2)X-ray intensities estimated using solar wind h+and self-consistentO7+ions are consistent with each other,(3)Visual spacecraft are employed to check the discrimination ability for capturing magnetopause deformations on Lunar and polar orbits,respectively.The SMILE spacecraft on the polar orbit could be expected to provide opportunities for capturing the global geometry of the magnetopause in the equatorial plane.A striking point is that SMILE has the potential to capture small-scale magnetopause deformations and magnetosheath transients,such as HSJs,at medium altitudes on its orbit.Simulation results also demonstrate that a lunar based imager(e.g.,Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager,LEXI)is expected to observe a localized brightening of the magnetosheath during HSJ events in the meridian plane.These preliminary results might contribute to the pre-studies for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing qualitative and quantitative soft X-ray estimates of dayside kinetic processes.展开更多
All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a se...All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.展开更多
This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in Februa...This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.展开更多
Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma environments.The magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the prope...Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma environments.The magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still unclear.Here,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)spacecraft.They can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,<0.6 s)and large-duration magnetic holes(LDMHs,>0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,respectively.Approximately 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical polarization.The magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is weaker.Their occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some LDMHs.These observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.展开更多
Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early ident...Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock;type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern;2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D program of China No.2021YFA0718600NNFSC grants 42150105,42188101,and 42274210the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories of China。
文摘The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)is a joint mission of the European Space Agency(ESA)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).Primary goals are investigating the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind(SW)impact via simultaneous in situ magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field measurements,X-Ray images of the magnetosheath and magnetic cusps,and UV images of global auroral distributions.Magnetopause deformations associated with magnetosheath high speed jets(HSJs)under a quasi-parallel interplanetary magnetic field condition are studied using a threedimensional(3-D)global hybrid simulation.Soft X-ray intensity calculated based on both physical quantities of solar wind proton and oxygen ions is compared.We obtain key findings concerning deformations at the magnetopause:(1)Magnetopause deformations are highly coherent with the magnetosheath HSJs generated at the quasi-parallel region of the bow shock,(2)X-ray intensities estimated using solar wind h+and self-consistentO7+ions are consistent with each other,(3)Visual spacecraft are employed to check the discrimination ability for capturing magnetopause deformations on Lunar and polar orbits,respectively.The SMILE spacecraft on the polar orbit could be expected to provide opportunities for capturing the global geometry of the magnetopause in the equatorial plane.A striking point is that SMILE has the potential to capture small-scale magnetopause deformations and magnetosheath transients,such as HSJs,at medium altitudes on its orbit.Simulation results also demonstrate that a lunar based imager(e.g.,Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager,LEXI)is expected to observe a localized brightening of the magnetosheath during HSJ events in the meridian plane.These preliminary results might contribute to the pre-studies for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing qualitative and quantitative soft X-ray estimates of dayside kinetic processes.
文摘All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.
基金jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Project(2018YFC1503301)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(NSFC)(U1839211)the fundamental scientific research project of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(IGCEA2123)。
文摘This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.
基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.HIT.OCEF.2022041)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42241155,41974205,42130204,and 42241133)+4 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant Nos.2022A1515011698,2023A1515030132,and 2022A1515010257)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Research Program(Grant Nos.JCYJ20210324121412034 and JCYJ20210324121403009)the Shenzhen Key Laboratory Launching Project(Grant No.ZDSYS20210702140800001)the Joint Open Fund of Mengcheng National Geophysical Observatory(Grant No.MENGO-202315)the Macao Foundation,the pre-research Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies(Grant No.D020103)funded by the China National Space Administration,and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology。
文摘Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma environments.The magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still unclear.Here,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)spacecraft.They can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,<0.6 s)and large-duration magnetic holes(LDMHs,>0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,respectively.Approximately 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical polarization.The magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is weaker.Their occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some LDMHs.These observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.
文摘Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock;type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern;2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.
