Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively inc...Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.展开更多
This paper presents the step-by-step genetic algorithm based on artificial intelligence guidance and builds a long-term daily optimized operating model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Complex with single gene...This paper presents the step-by-step genetic algorithm based on artificial intelligence guidance and builds a long-term daily optimized operating model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Complex with single generating set as the based operating unit. Actual operating data from 2004 to 2006 are used to verify the model, and results show that the simulation accuracy determined by measuring the total amount of cascade power generation reaches 99.66%. Statistic hydrological data of normal years and actual data of three years of 2004―2006 are respectively used to perform an optimized prediction of the power generation process and benefits in future when the water stored in the TGP Reservoir reaches 175 m level and power generation benefits under different operation modes, such as delayed subsiding water level, advance water storage, and adopting of different flood-limited water levels, are forecasted. In the case of years with normal inflows, the total amount of cascade power generation running on current specifications reaches 107500 GWh per year. If the commencement of water storage after the flood season is moved forward by 20 days, the amount of power generation can be increased by 3400 GWh per year. If the limited water level in the flood season is raised by three to five meters, the amount of power generation can be increased by 1600 to 3200 GWh per year. If the commencement of water storage is moved forward while the maximum water level allowed in the flood season is raised, the amount of power generation can be increased by 6400 GWh per year.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51079015, 50979011)
文摘Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.
文摘This paper presents the step-by-step genetic algorithm based on artificial intelligence guidance and builds a long-term daily optimized operating model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Complex with single generating set as the based operating unit. Actual operating data from 2004 to 2006 are used to verify the model, and results show that the simulation accuracy determined by measuring the total amount of cascade power generation reaches 99.66%. Statistic hydrological data of normal years and actual data of three years of 2004―2006 are respectively used to perform an optimized prediction of the power generation process and benefits in future when the water stored in the TGP Reservoir reaches 175 m level and power generation benefits under different operation modes, such as delayed subsiding water level, advance water storage, and adopting of different flood-limited water levels, are forecasted. In the case of years with normal inflows, the total amount of cascade power generation running on current specifications reaches 107500 GWh per year. If the commencement of water storage after the flood season is moved forward by 20 days, the amount of power generation can be increased by 3400 GWh per year. If the limited water level in the flood season is raised by three to five meters, the amount of power generation can be increased by 1600 to 3200 GWh per year. If the commencement of water storage is moved forward while the maximum water level allowed in the flood season is raised, the amount of power generation can be increased by 6400 GWh per year.
