As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth...As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.展开更多
Sea level rise （SLR） is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions, Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze Riv...Sea level rise （SLR） is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions, Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）, It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncer- tain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors, This paper attempts to map the causes and mag- nitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale, We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921, We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes （AGCs）, besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise （ESLR）, tectonic subsidence （TS）, and urban land subsidence （ULS）, The first new behavior is regional sea level rise （RSLR）, which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation, The second is regional sea level fall （RSLF）, which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment, The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise （LTDR）. Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030, Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision- makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges,展开更多
Suzhou is one of China＇s most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the fut...Suzhou is one of China＇s most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the future. In order to investigate the flood response to the extreme scenario in this region, 1-D hydrodynamic model with real-time operations of sluices and pumps is established. The rain-runoff processes of the urban and rural areas are simulated by two lumped hydrologic models, respectively. Indicators for a quantitative assessment of the flood severity in this region are proposed. The results indicate that the existing flood control system could prevent the Suzhou Downtown from inundation in the future. The difficulty of draining the Taihu Lake floods should be given attention to avoid the flood hazard. The modelling approach based on the in-bank model and the evaluation parameters could be effective for the flood severity estimation in the plain river network catchment. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may assist the policy making and the flood control planning.展开更多
文摘As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.
基金This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research-Research Councils UK （NSFC-NWO-RCUK） （51761135023）, the Shanghai Science and Technology Committee （10dz1210600）, the National Sea Welfare Project （201005019- 09）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41476075）, and the China Geological Survey （DD20160246）. We would like to give a special acknowledgement to the second author, ProfessorJi-Yu Chen, who was a great scientist of estuarine and coastal research, for the excellent suggestions and guidelines he provided over a considerable period of time before he passed away.
文摘Sea level rise （SLR） is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions, Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）, It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncer- tain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors, This paper attempts to map the causes and mag- nitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale, We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921, We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes （AGCs）, besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise （ESLR）, tectonic subsidence （TS）, and urban land subsidence （ULS）, The first new behavior is regional sea level rise （RSLR）, which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation, The second is regional sea level fall （RSLF）, which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment, The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise （LTDR）. Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030, Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision- makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges,
基金Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0405600,2016YFC0401503)the Special Fund for Public Welfare of Water Resources Ministry(Grant No.201501007,201201017)the State Key Pro-gram of National Natural Science of China(Grant No.51239003)
文摘Suzhou is one of China＇s most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the future. In order to investigate the flood response to the extreme scenario in this region, 1-D hydrodynamic model with real-time operations of sluices and pumps is established. The rain-runoff processes of the urban and rural areas are simulated by two lumped hydrologic models, respectively. Indicators for a quantitative assessment of the flood severity in this region are proposed. The results indicate that the existing flood control system could prevent the Suzhou Downtown from inundation in the future. The difficulty of draining the Taihu Lake floods should be given attention to avoid the flood hazard. The modelling approach based on the in-bank model and the evaluation parameters could be effective for the flood severity estimation in the plain river network catchment. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may assist the policy making and the flood control planning.
