Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more f...Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.展开更多
Since the recent economic crisis, the undervaluation of China＇s exchange rate has been a focus in the debate on the global policy mix. Using a non-competitive input-output table, we establish a comparative-static gen...Since the recent economic crisis, the undervaluation of China＇s exchange rate has been a focus in the debate on the global policy mix. Using a non-competitive input-output table, we establish a comparative-static general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of real exchange rate changes on Sino-US trade and labor markets. The simulation shows that the impacts of a lO-percent RMB revaluation on the trade surplus of China and the labor market of the USA are more modest than is generally perceived, and the negative impact on the output of the non-processing industry in China is more significant than that on the processing industry. The Sino--US trade imbalance will continue to deteriorate, China ＇s non-processing trade surplus will decline and the processing trade will increase, with the combined effect being small. For the USA, labor-intensive goods imported from China will shift to different Asian countries instead of transferring back to the US market. The simulation results indicate that the impacts of an RMB revaluation on both Chinese and US labor markets would be limited.展开更多
文摘Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.70810107020)the Science Foundation of Ministfy of Education of China(Grant No.2009JJD790002)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.20100470125)
文摘Since the recent economic crisis, the undervaluation of China＇s exchange rate has been a focus in the debate on the global policy mix. Using a non-competitive input-output table, we establish a comparative-static general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of real exchange rate changes on Sino-US trade and labor markets. The simulation shows that the impacts of a lO-percent RMB revaluation on the trade surplus of China and the labor market of the USA are more modest than is generally perceived, and the negative impact on the output of the non-processing industry in China is more significant than that on the processing industry. The Sino--US trade imbalance will continue to deteriorate, China ＇s non-processing trade surplus will decline and the processing trade will increase, with the combined effect being small. For the USA, labor-intensive goods imported from China will shift to different Asian countries instead of transferring back to the US market. The simulation results indicate that the impacts of an RMB revaluation on both Chinese and US labor markets would be limited.
