Rank Histograms are suitable tools to assess the quality of ensembles within an ensemble prediction system or framework. By counting the rank of a given variable in the ensemble, we are basically making a sample analy...Rank Histograms are suitable tools to assess the quality of ensembles within an ensemble prediction system or framework. By counting the rank of a given variable in the ensemble, we are basically making a sample analysis, which does not allow us to distinguish if the origin of its variability is external noise or comes from chaotic sources. The recently introduced Mean to Variance Logarithmic （MVL） Diagram accounts for the spatial variability, being very sensitive to the spatial localization produced by infinitesimal perturbations of spatiotemporal chaotic systems. By using as a benchmark a simple model subject to noise, we show the distinct information given by Rank Histograms and MVL Diagrams. Hence, the main effects of the external noise can be visualized in a graphic. From the MVL diagram we clearly observe a reduction of the amplitude growth rate and of the spatial localization （chaos suppression）, while from the Rank Histogram we observe changes in the reliability of the ensemble. We conclude that in a complex framework including spatiotemporal chaos and noise, both provide a more complete forecasting picture.展开更多
A novel theoretical model is presented maintaining that consciousness evolved on the basis of time distinctions. Various models of time pertain to the existence of future, present and past. It is proposed that the fut...A novel theoretical model is presented maintaining that consciousness evolved on the basis of time distinctions. Various models of time pertain to the existence of future, present and past. It is proposed that the future represents potentialities, the present the actualization of certain potentialities, and the past a record of actualized potentialities. Actualization of potentialities derives from micro quantum wave function collapses with specific constellations corresponding to macro level form. Consciousness provides for an awareness of potentialities being actualized in the present, the time frame of consciousness closely aligning with the time frame of potentialities being actualized in the moment. Evolution of such awareness is highly probable, given the ensuing motivation enabling behavior to be altered in the moment to minimize the actualization of maladaptive potentialities, and maximize the actualization of adaptive potentialities. The model also provides a logical proof for the occurrence of time distinctions.展开更多
基金support from MEC,Spain,through Grant No.CGL2007-64387/CLIthe AECID,Spain,for support through projects A/013666/07 and A/018685/08
文摘Rank Histograms are suitable tools to assess the quality of ensembles within an ensemble prediction system or framework. By counting the rank of a given variable in the ensemble, we are basically making a sample analysis, which does not allow us to distinguish if the origin of its variability is external noise or comes from chaotic sources. The recently introduced Mean to Variance Logarithmic （MVL） Diagram accounts for the spatial variability, being very sensitive to the spatial localization produced by infinitesimal perturbations of spatiotemporal chaotic systems. By using as a benchmark a simple model subject to noise, we show the distinct information given by Rank Histograms and MVL Diagrams. Hence, the main effects of the external noise can be visualized in a graphic. From the MVL diagram we clearly observe a reduction of the amplitude growth rate and of the spatial localization （chaos suppression）, while from the Rank Histogram we observe changes in the reliability of the ensemble. We conclude that in a complex framework including spatiotemporal chaos and noise, both provide a more complete forecasting picture.
文摘A novel theoretical model is presented maintaining that consciousness evolved on the basis of time distinctions. Various models of time pertain to the existence of future, present and past. It is proposed that the future represents potentialities, the present the actualization of certain potentialities, and the past a record of actualized potentialities. Actualization of potentialities derives from micro quantum wave function collapses with specific constellations corresponding to macro level form. Consciousness provides for an awareness of potentialities being actualized in the present, the time frame of consciousness closely aligning with the time frame of potentialities being actualized in the moment. Evolution of such awareness is highly probable, given the ensuing motivation enabling behavior to be altered in the moment to minimize the actualization of maladaptive potentialities, and maximize the actualization of adaptive potentialities. The model also provides a logical proof for the occurrence of time distinctions.
