在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以...在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以及改进后的最优概率阈值集合方法(deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold,DEFPT)对该区域次季节-季节降水的预测水平。评估结果表明:基于CMA-CPSv3预测系统的DEFPT方法可以提升天山北坡次季节-季节尺度1~5 mm阈值降水落区以及持续性的预测效果,优于传统集合平均预报和控制预报。从2016年7月29日—8月2日、2017年6月7—12日以及2020年7月8—12日时段发生在天山北坡的降水事件个例分析结果看,不论从降水落区、降水异常还是降水持续性,DEFPT集合预报在天山北坡西部和南部均有更好的效果,但在天山北坡东部和北部预测能力相对略低,这与该区域水汽的预报偏差增大有关。展开更多
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the per...Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the perfect model assumption. SVs and CNOPs have been utilized to generate the initial pertur-bations for ensemble prediction experiments. The results are compared for forecast lengths of up to 14 d. It is found that the forecast skill of samples,in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP,is com-paratively higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range (day 6―day 14). This conclusion is valid under the condition that analysis error is a kind of fast-growing ones regardless of its magnitude,whose nonlinear growth is faster than that of SV in the later part of the forecast. Fur-thermore,similarity index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis are performed to explain the above numerical results.展开更多
文摘在新疆天山大地形背景下,实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3(China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3)在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用,分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以及改进后的最优概率阈值集合方法(deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold,DEFPT)对该区域次季节-季节降水的预测水平。评估结果表明:基于CMA-CPSv3预测系统的DEFPT方法可以提升天山北坡次季节-季节尺度1~5 mm阈值降水落区以及持续性的预测效果,优于传统集合平均预报和控制预报。从2016年7月29日—8月2日、2017年6月7—12日以及2020年7月8—12日时段发生在天山北坡的降水事件个例分析结果看,不论从降水落区、降水异常还是降水持续性,DEFPT集合预报在天山北坡西部和南部均有更好的效果,但在天山北坡东部和北部预测能力相对略低,这与该区域水汽的预报偏差增大有关。
基金the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No.2006CB400503)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KZCX3-SW-230)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40221503 and 40675030)
文摘Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),which is a natural extension of singular vector (SV) into the nonlinear regime,is applied to ensemble prediction study by using a quasi-geostrophic model under the perfect model assumption. SVs and CNOPs have been utilized to generate the initial pertur-bations for ensemble prediction experiments. The results are compared for forecast lengths of up to 14 d. It is found that the forecast skill of samples,in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP,is com-paratively higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range (day 6―day 14). This conclusion is valid under the condition that analysis error is a kind of fast-growing ones regardless of its magnitude,whose nonlinear growth is faster than that of SV in the later part of the forecast. Fur-thermore,similarity index and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis are performed to explain the above numerical results.
