针对《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》报告对全球能源供需进行分析和总结。《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》中统计到2050年,在“快速转型情景”“净零情景”及“新动力情景”中,探索全球能源市场在减少碳排放、向低碳清洁能源转型路径中的发...针对《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》报告对全球能源供需进行分析和总结。《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》中统计到2050年,在“快速转型情景”“净零情景”及“新动力情景”中,探索全球能源市场在减少碳排放、向低碳清洁能源转型路径中的发展趋势。分析表明:到2050年前,三种情景下终端能源消费总量均已达到峰值;石油和煤炭需求都呈现下降趋势,全球能源开始逐步向更低碳方向转型;天然气消费量变化趋势差异较大;可再生能源增长速度最快;低碳氢作为低碳清洁能源需求增长强劲;碳排放量下降,碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS)技术发挥核心作用;中国实现“双碳”目标,向低碳清洁能源转型。分析结果可为全球能源转型发展提供参考。展开更多
Low carbon transformation plays an important role in promoting the energy production and consumption revolution. Currently, the power sector of China still faces a series of challenges, such as the overcapacity of coa...Low carbon transformation plays an important role in promoting the energy production and consumption revolution. Currently, the power sector of China still faces a series of challenges, such as the overcapacity of coal-fired power, the renewable energy consumption, the new constraints of carbon-emissions, and fragmented power planning. This study develops a multi-objective optimization model to predict the future trend of China power structure by 2035. The key factors such as network, power, load and storage are taken into account. Besides, the technical feasibility, economic rationality and social acceptable constraints are also fully considered. Through planning and optimization, the premise of low carbon transformation is to ensure the continuity of existing policies for removing inefficient assets, and the core is to develop and utilize non-fossil energy on a large scale. Specifically, the capacity of coal-fired power will be attained in the peak in 2025, and the factor will also transfer from main power supplier to main power and energy supplier. Before 2025, the clean replacement of incremental power installation will be completed. In 2035, 92% of new investment comes from non-fossil energy. The economy and competitiveness of wind power and PV(Photovoltaic) power generation are continuously increasing. By 2020, the coal-fired power and the wind power in eastern of China will be parity firstly. In 2025, the cost of PV and wind power will be the same. Furthermore, the evaluation dimension of modern power system with clean, low-carbon, safety and high efficiency are innovatively constructed, and the index system target of 2035 is quantitatively analyzed and prospected.展开更多
本文梳理了一些机构最新发布的世界能源展望报告,并对主要结果进行了对比分析和总结。结果表明:在总量方面,未来全球能源消费总量将持续增长,但增速趋缓;在能源供应侧,清洁替代将是全球能源供应结构变化的基本趋势,非化石能源占比达到20...本文梳理了一些机构最新发布的世界能源展望报告,并对主要结果进行了对比分析和总结。结果表明:在总量方面,未来全球能源消费总量将持续增长,但增速趋缓;在能源供应侧,清洁替代将是全球能源供应结构变化的基本趋势,非化石能源占比达到20%以上,但2030年全球化石能源仍占较高比重;在能源消费侧,交通和居民及其它部门是能源消费增长的主体,电能替代是终端能源结构变化的基本趋势;在电力方面,2030年电力需求总量达到39~45万亿k W h,年均电力需求增速约为2.0%~2.9%,不同机构对未来电源结构的判断差异较大,但都对非化石能源发电寄以厚望。展开更多
文摘针对《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》报告对全球能源供需进行分析和总结。《bp世界能源展望(2023年版)》中统计到2050年,在“快速转型情景”“净零情景”及“新动力情景”中,探索全球能源市场在减少碳排放、向低碳清洁能源转型路径中的发展趋势。分析表明:到2050年前,三种情景下终端能源消费总量均已达到峰值;石油和煤炭需求都呈现下降趋势,全球能源开始逐步向更低碳方向转型;天然气消费量变化趋势差异较大;可再生能源增长速度最快;低碳氢作为低碳清洁能源需求增长强劲;碳排放量下降,碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS)技术发挥核心作用;中国实现“双碳”目标,向低碳清洁能源转型。分析结果可为全球能源转型发展提供参考。
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under grant number 2017YFB0601803
文摘Low carbon transformation plays an important role in promoting the energy production and consumption revolution. Currently, the power sector of China still faces a series of challenges, such as the overcapacity of coal-fired power, the renewable energy consumption, the new constraints of carbon-emissions, and fragmented power planning. This study develops a multi-objective optimization model to predict the future trend of China power structure by 2035. The key factors such as network, power, load and storage are taken into account. Besides, the technical feasibility, economic rationality and social acceptable constraints are also fully considered. Through planning and optimization, the premise of low carbon transformation is to ensure the continuity of existing policies for removing inefficient assets, and the core is to develop and utilize non-fossil energy on a large scale. Specifically, the capacity of coal-fired power will be attained in the peak in 2025, and the factor will also transfer from main power supplier to main power and energy supplier. Before 2025, the clean replacement of incremental power installation will be completed. In 2035, 92% of new investment comes from non-fossil energy. The economy and competitiveness of wind power and PV(Photovoltaic) power generation are continuously increasing. By 2020, the coal-fired power and the wind power in eastern of China will be parity firstly. In 2025, the cost of PV and wind power will be the same. Furthermore, the evaluation dimension of modern power system with clean, low-carbon, safety and high efficiency are innovatively constructed, and the index system target of 2035 is quantitatively analyzed and prospected.
文摘本文梳理了一些机构最新发布的世界能源展望报告,并对主要结果进行了对比分析和总结。结果表明:在总量方面,未来全球能源消费总量将持续增长,但增速趋缓;在能源供应侧,清洁替代将是全球能源供应结构变化的基本趋势,非化石能源占比达到20%以上,但2030年全球化石能源仍占较高比重;在能源消费侧,交通和居民及其它部门是能源消费增长的主体,电能替代是终端能源结构变化的基本趋势;在电力方面,2030年电力需求总量达到39~45万亿k W h,年均电力需求增速约为2.0%~2.9%,不同机构对未来电源结构的判断差异较大,但都对非化石能源发电寄以厚望。
