The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably ...The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.展开更多
By analysing the instability process of various nonlinear systems, we conclude that their instability precursors are the continual heightening of the response rate or response ratio.Applying this theory to earthquake ...By analysing the instability process of various nonlinear systems, we conclude that their instability precursors are the continual heightening of the response rate or response ratio.Applying this theory to earthquake prediction, we adopt the periodical change of the stress in crust caused by the tide-generating force as the loading and unloading. If we can measure the ratio of the response (such as crust deformation, gravity and seismicity) during the loading period to that during the unloading period, this parameter must contain some characteristic information about the seismogenic process.With nine earthquakes (M≥7) data that occurred in Chinese mainland during 1970-1988, we take the sum of square root o?energy of small earthquakes, which is called the released strain by Benioff, as the response to the tidal loading and unloading. We find that the response ratios of seven earthquakes increase obviously before the main earthquakes.展开更多
The load/unload experiments on rock failure under pressure have been carried out in Material Test System (MTS) in the Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics of Continuous Media (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Acad...The load/unload experiments on rock failure under pressure have been carried out in Material Test System (MTS) in the Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics of Continuous Media (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and load/unload response ratio (LURR) values with strain as response (i.e. inverse elastic constant as response rate) have been obtained. The experimental results are in accordance with theoretical results and those in real earthquakes: LURR rises just before rock failure. So LURR can be used as the precursor of rock failure and earthquake prediction.展开更多
The load/unload response ratio YQ with the geophysical parameter coda Q-1 of the crust as response is denned in this study.The variation in YQ-1 before and after the Northridge earthquake of January 17,1994(California...The load/unload response ratio YQ with the geophysical parameter coda Q-1 of the crust as response is denned in this study.The variation in YQ-1 before and after the Northridge earthquake of January 17,1994(California)has been investigated by using the data of coda Q-1 with frequencies of 1.5,3.0,6.0,12.0,and 24.0 Hz in the Southern California from 1987 to 1994.It can be found that YQ-1 for coda waves with all frequencies,the frequency of 12.0 Hz excluded,ascended to a certain extent prior to the occurrence of the rnainshock and returned to normality after the main shock.展开更多
In this paper, the theory of the load/unload response ratio is applied to the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquakes, and variation of the load/unload response ratio Y preceding the occurrence of main shocks ...In this paper, the theory of the load/unload response ratio is applied to the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquakes, and variation of the load/unload response ratio Y preceding the occurrence of main shocks of the reservoir-induced earthquakes in Xinfengjiang, Foziling, Danjiangkou, and Shenwo. The results show that the load/unload response ratio Y rises evidently prior to the main shocks.展开更多
This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certai...This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certain megnitude are mainly positive ones a certain time before the main shock in or near the focal regions of most strong quakes,and form a concentratingintervals of positive quakes,The main quakes generally locate in or near the areas of positive quake distribution.Negative quakes often occur several months before the main shocks (not excluding positive ones), with the decrease of LURR (Loading/Unloading Response Ratio) values.It possibly shows that earthquake generating process has come to a short term stage.These characteristics may help to predict the time and location of the future earthquakes,and have been applied to the preliminary prediction of the time and the location of the earthquake of M =6.6 on Sep.11,1996 in Kanto area.展开更多
The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the...The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.展开更多
文摘The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.
基金This work is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation and the Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China.
文摘By analysing the instability process of various nonlinear systems, we conclude that their instability precursors are the continual heightening of the response rate or response ratio.Applying this theory to earthquake prediction, we adopt the periodical change of the stress in crust caused by the tide-generating force as the loading and unloading. If we can measure the ratio of the response (such as crust deformation, gravity and seismicity) during the loading period to that during the unloading period, this parameter must contain some characteristic information about the seismogenic process.With nine earthquakes (M≥7) data that occurred in Chinese mainland during 1970-1988, we take the sum of square root o?energy of small earthquakes, which is called the released strain by Benioff, as the response to the tidal loading and unloading. We find that the response ratios of seven earthquakes increase obviously before the main earthquakes.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 19732006), China and Ninth Five-year Plan, China Seismological Bureau.
文摘The load/unload experiments on rock failure under pressure have been carried out in Material Test System (MTS) in the Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics of Continuous Media (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and load/unload response ratio (LURR) values with strain as response (i.e. inverse elastic constant as response rate) have been obtained. The experimental results are in accordance with theoretical results and those in real earthquakes: LURR rises just before rock failure. So LURR can be used as the precursor of rock failure and earthquake prediction.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation, China
文摘The load/unload response ratio YQ with the geophysical parameter coda Q-1 of the crust as response is denned in this study.The variation in YQ-1 before and after the Northridge earthquake of January 17,1994(California)has been investigated by using the data of coda Q-1 with frequencies of 1.5,3.0,6.0,12.0,and 24.0 Hz in the Southern California from 1987 to 1994.It can be found that YQ-1 for coda waves with all frequencies,the frequency of 12.0 Hz excluded,ascended to a certain extent prior to the occurrence of the rnainshock and returned to normality after the main shock.
基金This project was sponsored by the Joint Earthquake Science Function and Natural Science Function, China.
文摘In this paper, the theory of the load/unload response ratio is applied to the prediction of the reservoir-induced earthquakes, and variation of the load/unload response ratio Y preceding the occurrence of main shocks of the reservoir-induced earthquakes in Xinfengjiang, Foziling, Danjiangkou, and Shenwo. The results show that the load/unload response ratio Y rises evidently prior to the main shocks.
文摘This paper studies the evolution charateristics of positive and negative quakes before Hyugo earthquake of M =7.2 and several strong quakes in Kanto area in Japan.The results show that the earthquakes over a certain megnitude are mainly positive ones a certain time before the main shock in or near the focal regions of most strong quakes,and form a concentratingintervals of positive quakes,The main quakes generally locate in or near the areas of positive quake distribution.Negative quakes often occur several months before the main shocks (not excluding positive ones), with the decrease of LURR (Loading/Unloading Response Ratio) values.It possibly shows that earthquake generating process has come to a short term stage.These characteristics may help to predict the time and location of the future earthquakes,and have been applied to the preliminary prediction of the time and the location of the earthquake of M =6.6 on Sep.11,1996 in Kanto area.
文摘The spatial temPOral evolution characteristics of the load/unload response ratio (Y) before strong earthquakes is studied in this paper. The results show that the regions of high value of Y migrate and converge to the impending earthquake epicenter from different directions before the occurrence of the event. Basing on this discovery, it is proposed that the method can be used to predict the three elements of an earthquake. It was applied to predict that an earthquake would occur in the western part of Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The three elements (time, space and magnitude) of the Menglian earthquake with Ms7.3 which occurred on July 12, 1995 in Yunnan Province tallied with our prediction.
