In this paper, we first analyse the shortcomings of existing investment appraisal methodologs, and present the theory of cognitive influence diagrams, which is constructed by integrating cognitive maps and influence d...In this paper, we first analyse the shortcomings of existing investment appraisal methodologs, and present the theory of cognitive influence diagrams, which is constructed by integrating cognitive maps and influence diagrams. Simulation is used to solve the probabilistic inference by using the sample spare of each random variable involved in the analysis. A dynamic criterion is supposed based on the separable nature of value function. With this criterion. We combine influence diagrams with dynamic economic assessment. Thus the dynamic characteristics of investment proposal can be evaluated.展开更多
针对病险水库大坝失事这一涉及社会公众安全的突发事件,借鉴国外的洪灾评估技术,结合我国水库大坝管理现状,构建了基于W eb G IS技术的病险水库灾情动态评估系统架构.并研究了数据库的建立、灾前预测评估、灾中实时评估和灾后反馈评估的...针对病险水库大坝失事这一涉及社会公众安全的突发事件,借鉴国外的洪灾评估技术,结合我国水库大坝管理现状,构建了基于W eb G IS技术的病险水库灾情动态评估系统架构.并研究了数据库的建立、灾前预测评估、灾中实时评估和灾后反馈评估的4个阶段.展开更多
文摘In this paper, we first analyse the shortcomings of existing investment appraisal methodologs, and present the theory of cognitive influence diagrams, which is constructed by integrating cognitive maps and influence diagrams. Simulation is used to solve the probabilistic inference by using the sample spare of each random variable involved in the analysis. A dynamic criterion is supposed based on the separable nature of value function. With this criterion. We combine influence diagrams with dynamic economic assessment. Thus the dynamic characteristics of investment proposal can be evaluated.
