This paper considers the well known problem of estimating reliability in discrete reliability growth context with sequence of dichotomous success-failure outcomes. More precisely, the authors generalize the simple ord...This paper considers the well known problem of estimating reliability in discrete reliability growth context with sequence of dichotomous success-failure outcomes. More precisely, the authors generalize the simple order relationship constraint with some coefficients. The authors prove that under some mild conditions, the generalized constraint MLE problem can be transformed to a traditional isotonic problem. The authors also study the lower confidence limit estimation of reliability with sample space ranking method. A simulation is conducted to illustrate the superiority of the proposed method.展开更多
Based on the zero-failure data of 30 Chinese 1. 5 MW wind turbine gearboxes( WTGs),the optimal confidence limit method was developed to predict the reliability and reliability lifetime of WTG. Firstly,Bayesian method ...Based on the zero-failure data of 30 Chinese 1. 5 MW wind turbine gearboxes( WTGs),the optimal confidence limit method was developed to predict the reliability and reliability lifetime of WTG. Firstly,Bayesian method and classical probability estimation method were introduced to estimate the value interval of shape parameter considering the engineering practice. Secondly,taking this value interval into the optimal confidence limit method,the reliability and reliability lifetime of WTG could be obtained under different confidence levels. Finally,the results of optimal confidence limit method and Bayesian method were compared. And the comparison results show that the rationality of this estimated range.Meantime, the rule of confidence level selection in the optimal confidence limit method is provided, and the reliability and reliability lifetime prediction of WTG can be acquired.展开更多
Stress-strength model is a basic and important tool for reliability analysis.There are few methods to assess the confidence limit of interference reliability when the distribution parameters of stress and strength are...Stress-strength model is a basic and important tool for reliability analysis.There are few methods to assess the confidence limit of interference reliability when the distribution parameters of stress and strength are all unknown.A new assessment method of interference reliability is proposed and the estimates of the distribution parameters are accordingly given.The lower confidence limit of interference reliability with given confidence can be obtained with the method even though the parameters are all unknown.Simulation studies and an engineering application are conducted to validate the method,which suggest that the method provides precise estimates even for sample size of approximately.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11171007/A011103
文摘This paper considers the well known problem of estimating reliability in discrete reliability growth context with sequence of dichotomous success-failure outcomes. More precisely, the authors generalize the simple order relationship constraint with some coefficients. The authors prove that under some mild conditions, the generalized constraint MLE problem can be transformed to a traditional isotonic problem. The authors also study the lower confidence limit estimation of reliability with sample space ranking method. A simulation is conducted to illustrate the superiority of the proposed method.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51265025)
文摘Based on the zero-failure data of 30 Chinese 1. 5 MW wind turbine gearboxes( WTGs),the optimal confidence limit method was developed to predict the reliability and reliability lifetime of WTG. Firstly,Bayesian method and classical probability estimation method were introduced to estimate the value interval of shape parameter considering the engineering practice. Secondly,taking this value interval into the optimal confidence limit method,the reliability and reliability lifetime of WTG could be obtained under different confidence levels. Finally,the results of optimal confidence limit method and Bayesian method were compared. And the comparison results show that the rationality of this estimated range.Meantime, the rule of confidence level selection in the optimal confidence limit method is provided, and the reliability and reliability lifetime prediction of WTG can be acquired.
文摘Stress-strength model is a basic and important tool for reliability analysis.There are few methods to assess the confidence limit of interference reliability when the distribution parameters of stress and strength are all unknown.A new assessment method of interference reliability is proposed and the estimates of the distribution parameters are accordingly given.The lower confidence limit of interference reliability with given confidence can be obtained with the method even though the parameters are all unknown.Simulation studies and an engineering application are conducted to validate the method,which suggest that the method provides precise estimates even for sample size of approximately.
