Formal methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model outputs to assess the use of the CGE model of China （integrated energy-economyenvironment dynamic CGE, TEDCG...Formal methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model outputs to assess the use of the CGE model of China （integrated energy-economyenvironment dynamic CGE, TEDCGE） for carbon tax policy issues. Monte Carlo experiment was used for the parameter uncertainty propagation and unconditional sensitivity analysis, using the variance of the conditional expectation （VCE） as the importance index to identify critical uncertainties. The results illustrate the statistical characteristics of TEDCGE outputs and sensitivities of the TEDCGE outputs to 50 uncertain elasticities. The results show that the carbon tax level for a predefined emission reduction goal is quite sensitive to both capital-energy substitution elasticity and inter-fuel substitution elasticity in the production function, while the key parameter for the GDP reduction rate was only the inter-fuel substitution elasticity. Among the various sectors, heavy industry and electricity are most vitally affected by a carbon tax.展开更多
China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and ...China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the "triple high" phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic-world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon.Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011-2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self-sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self-sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.展开更多
Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM ...Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.展开更多
Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral...Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.展开更多
基金Supported by the Major Research Project of the Tenth Five-Plan (2001-2005) of China (No. 2004-BA611B)
文摘Formal methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model outputs to assess the use of the CGE model of China （integrated energy-economyenvironment dynamic CGE, TEDCGE） for carbon tax policy issues. Monte Carlo experiment was used for the parameter uncertainty propagation and unconditional sensitivity analysis, using the variance of the conditional expectation （VCE） as the importance index to identify critical uncertainties. The results illustrate the statistical characteristics of TEDCGE outputs and sensitivities of the TEDCGE outputs to 50 uncertain elasticities. The results show that the carbon tax level for a predefined emission reduction goal is quite sensitive to both capital-energy substitution elasticity and inter-fuel substitution elasticity in the production function, while the key parameter for the GDP reduction rate was only the inter-fuel substitution elasticity. Among the various sectors, heavy industry and electricity are most vitally affected by a carbon tax.
基金Zhu and Li acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71803085 and No.71673142)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2017M621766)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.KJQN201949)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
文摘China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the "triple high" phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic-world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon.Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011-2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self-sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self-sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72293605,72293600,72204013,72074022)R&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission(SM202310005005)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M700314,2023T160035).
文摘Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.
基金funded by the NASA Disasters Program grant#NH18ZDA001N001N.
文摘Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.
