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中国降水准2年主振荡模态与全球500 hPa环流联系的年代际变化 被引量:20
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作者 杨秋明 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2006年第1期131-145,共15页
用近51年(1951-2001年)观测资料,研究太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷暖位相中国降水量准2年主振荡型传播特征的差异,并讨论对应的全球500hPa环流低频波列传播途径的变化及可能原因。同时提出年际振荡强度不稳定指数,讨论了中国降水和全... 用近51年(1951-2001年)观测资料,研究太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷暖位相中国降水量准2年主振荡型传播特征的差异,并讨论对应的全球500hPa环流低频波列传播途径的变化及可能原因。同时提出年际振荡强度不稳定指数,讨论了中国降水和全球500hPa高度准2年周期振荡(QBO)强度时间不稳定的空间分布。通过主振荡型分析(POP)发现,在PDO冷位相(1951~1976年),准2年时间尺度的中国降水POP1的主要活动区域在长江中游地区,对应的500hPa低频场是大西洋欧亚波列(AEU)和西大西洋遥相关型(WA)以及南太平洋副热带波列(SSP);在PDO暖位相(1977-2001年),POP1的活动区域迅速北移并扩大到整个长江和淮河流域,对应的500hPa低频场变为欧亚太平洋-南印度洋-南北大西洋波列(EUP—SI—SNA)。因此,PDO冷暖位相中影响中国降水准2年主振荡模态的低频波列的传播途径和强度存在显著差异,PDO对中国降水量准2年主振荡型主要模态(POP1)及其伴随的全球500hPa环流低频波列活动区域的时间变化有重要调制作用,与两个半球中纬度西风气流强度的年代际变化密切相关。由振荡强度时间变化指数分析表明,中国降水QBO强度不稳定区域位于长江中游、长江下游、浙江东部、广东东部、华北地区和青藏高原东北侧附近地区,这些地区降水QBO的强度随PDO位相转变而发生显著的年代际突变。对于全球500hPa高度,其QBO强度不稳定区域在南太平洋中高纬度、副热带南北大西洋地区和亚洲、北太平洋、北美大陆中高纬度地区、北半球副热带西太平洋地区以及南北半球热带和副热带东太平洋地区,表现为对于赤道的非对称空间分布,特别是南北太平洋热带和副热带地区500hPa环流QBO强度在年代际时间尺度上呈现正负反向变化的空间结构,而且南北极附近地区的QBO强度� 展开更多
关键词 中国降水 准2年周期振荡 全球500 hPa环流 低频振荡强度 年代际变化
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厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的成因与预测 被引量:19
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作者 杨冬红 杨学祥 《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2008年第5期1-10,共10页
通过对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、臭氧变化资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的综合验证,发现了构造运动与厄尔尼诺因果关系。大气、海洋与岩石圈的角动量交换在南半球和北半球有不同的形式,这是... 通过对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、臭氧变化资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的综合验证,发现了构造运动与厄尔尼诺因果关系。大气、海洋与岩石圈的角动量交换在南半球和北半球有不同的形式,这是由陆海分布的差异决定的。南极上空臭氧变化和环南极海冰变化是赤道海温和全球气候准两年振荡的原因。其中,德雷克海峡的海冰变化起主要作用。这个结论给出了作者提出的"海洋锅炉效应"、"臭氧洞漏能效应"、"德雷克海冰气候开关效应"和"大洋地壳跷跷板运动"的相互关系,证明构造运动对厄尔尼诺的重要影响。强潮汐准4a周期的发现,表明南极海冰变化、东太平洋海温变化、地球自转变化和厄尔尼诺都具有4a准周期变化的原因。海温和海冰开关的准2a周期和日食—厄尔尼诺系数理论有较好的预测效果。 展开更多
关键词 日食-厄尔尼诺系数 拉尼娜 海冰 地震 地球自转 两年振荡 潮汐
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太平洋环流速度减慢的原因 被引量:10
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作者 杨学祥 《世界地质》 CAS CSCD 2003年第4期380-384,共5页
 对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证,发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因,德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。这一...  对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证,发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因,德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。这一综合检验结果给出以日食—厄尔尼诺系数预测厄尔尼诺事件的有效性和准确性。两年周期的太平洋海温振荡使日食与厄尔尼诺之间存在12~24个月的位相差。 展开更多
关键词 日食—厄尔尼诺系数 环南极大陆海冰 太平洋海温 太平洋环流速度 两年振荡
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Dynamical mechanism of the stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon 被引量:7
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作者 ZHENG Bin GU DeJun +1 位作者 LIN AiLan LI ChunHui 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2007年第9期1424-1432,共9页
The National Center for the Atmospheric Research(NCAR)middle atmospheric model is used to study the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere(QBO)on the tropopause and uppe troposphere,and the rela... The National Center for the Atmospheric Research(NCAR)middle atmospheric model is used to study the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere(QBO)on the tropopause and uppe troposphere,and the relationship between the QBO and South China Sea Summer Monsoon SCSSM is explored through NCEP(the National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR,ECMWF(Euro pean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)monthly mean wind data and in situ sounding data The simulations show that the QBO-induced residual circulations propagate downwards,and affect the tropopause and upper troposphere during the periods of mid-late QBO phase and phase transition Meanwhile,diagnostic analyses indicate that anomalous circulation similar to SCSSM circulation is generated to strengthen the SCSSM during the easterly phase and anomalous Hadley-like circulation weakens the SCSSM during the westerly.Though the QBO has effects on the SCSSM by meridiona circulation,it is not a sole mechanism on the SCSSM TBO mode. 展开更多
关键词 stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation South China Sea Summer Monsoon tropospheric biennial oscillation
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Evaluating the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its responses to ENSO,QBO,and the solar cycle in different reanalyses 被引量:7
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作者 Jian Rao YueYue Yu +3 位作者 Dong Guo ChunHua Shi Dan Chen DingZhu Hu 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 CSCD 2019年第2期166-181,共16页
This study compares the climatology and long-term trend of northern winter stratospheric residual mean meridional circulation(RMMC), as well as its responses to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), stratospheric Quasi ... This study compares the climatology and long-term trend of northern winter stratospheric residual mean meridional circulation(RMMC), as well as its responses to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation(QBO), and solar cycle in ten reanalyses and a stratosphere-resolving model, CESM1-WACCM. The RMMC is a large-scale meridional circulation cell in the stratosphere, usually referred to as the estimate of the Brewer Dobson circulation(BDC). The distribution of the BDC is generally consistent among multiple reanalyses except that the NOAA twentieth century reanalysis(20RC) largely underestimates it. Most reanalyses(except ERA40 and ERA-Interim) show a strengthening trend for the BDC during 1979–2010. All reanalyses and CESM1-WACCM consistently reveal that the deep branch of the BDC is significantly enhanced in El Ni?o winters as more waves from the troposphere dissipate in the stratospheric polar vortex region. A secondary circulation cell is coupled to the temperature anomalies below the QBO easterly center at 50 hPa with tropical upwelling/cooling and midlatitude downwelling/warming, and similar secondary circulation cells also appear between 50–10 hPa and above 10 hPa to balance the temperature anomalies. The direct BDC response to QBO in the upper stratosphere creates a barrier near 30°N to prevent waves from propagating to midlatitudes, contributing to the weakening of the polar vortex. The shallow branch of the BDC in the lower stratosphere is intensified during solar minima, and the downwelling warms the Arctic lower stratosphere. The stratospheric responses to QBO and solar cycle in most reanalyses are generally consistent except in the two 20 CRs. 展开更多
关键词 residual mean meridional stream function(RMMSF) Brewer-Dobson circulation(BDC) El Nino-Southern oscillation(ENSO) Quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)
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2004年厄尔尼诺事件的理论预测和实践检验 被引量:4
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作者 林玎 杨学祥 杨冬红 《海洋预报》 2005年第3期5-10,共6页
地球自转速度减慢、赤道东太平洋表层海温升高、日食-厄尔尼诺系数增大与厄尔尼诺事件发生时间在一切细节上有惊人的对应关系。这个综合检验结果给出了地球自转减速和日食-厄尔尼诺系数预测厄尔尼诺事件的有效性和准确性。2004年的弱厄... 地球自转速度减慢、赤道东太平洋表层海温升高、日食-厄尔尼诺系数增大与厄尔尼诺事件发生时间在一切细节上有惊人的对应关系。这个综合检验结果给出了地球自转减速和日食-厄尔尼诺系数预测厄尔尼诺事件的有效性和准确性。2004年的弱厄尔尼诺已得到初步证实,2005年的拉尼娜有待检验。 展开更多
关键词 日食-厄尔尼诺系数 厄尔尼诺预测 准两年振荡 拉尼娜
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Regional relationship between the Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies 被引量:4
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作者 QIAN WeiHong ZHU Jiang +1 位作者 WANG YongGuang FU JiaoLan 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2009年第1期113-119,共7页
The Jiang-Huai Meiyu rainy season can be distinguished into the Jiangnan Meiyu spell and the Huaihe Meiyu spell. The Jiangnan Meiyu spell appears on the last ten days in June and the Huaihe Meiyu spell lasts from earl... The Jiang-Huai Meiyu rainy season can be distinguished into the Jiangnan Meiyu spell and the Huaihe Meiyu spell. The Jiangnan Meiyu spell appears on the last ten days in June and the Huaihe Meiyu spell lasts from early July to middle July. An inter-decadal transition was observed in 1998 respectively from the anomalies of Jiangnan Meiyu rainfall,the sea surface temperature (SST),and the subsurface tem-perature in the equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21st century,opposite trends and biennial oscillations of the Meiyu rainfall are observed in the Jiangnan and Huaihe basins. Before the strong La Nia of 1999―2000,the positive SST anomalies usually occurred in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Since the beginning of the 21st century,a precursory warming signal of SST anomaly comes from the subsurface temperature which is centrally exposed near the dateline in the central equatorial Pacific. The above-normal Meiyu rainfall in 2003,2005 and 2007 over the Huaihe basin followed the prior winter-spring positive SST anomaly near the dateline. A relationship shows that the more Jiangnan (Huaihe) Meiyu follows the winter-spring warm water in the eastern (central) equatorial Pacific. 展开更多
关键词 长江流域 淮河流域 梅雨季节 赤道 温度
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Conceptual model about the interaction between El Nio/ Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific 被引量:3
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作者 LIU Qinyu1, LIU Zhengyu2,1 & PAN Aijun 1,3 1. Physical Oceanography Lab. & Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction and Climate Lab., Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China 2. Center for Climate Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706-1695, USA 3. Environment and Dynamics Lab., Third Institute of Oceanography, Xiamen 361005, China 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2006年第8期889-896,共8页
Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorialPacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model.In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects ... Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorialPacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model.In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanicKelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSOeffects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosisanalysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a moreimportant role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvinwave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a freeENSO oscillation with 3-5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennialperiod, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacifictends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in thecoupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interactionbetween ENSO and QBOWP. 展开更多
关键词 El nino/southern oscillation quasi-biennial oscillation interaction coupled system kelvin wave walker circulation
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Low Frequency Characteristics of Tropical Pacific Wind Stress Anomalies in Observations and Simulations from a Simple and a Comprehensive Models
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作者 倪允琪 张勤 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1996年第4期445-460,共16页
Low frequency characteristics of tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies in observation and simulations from the CZ simple atmospheric model and COLA R15 AGCM are analyzed.The results show that ENSO event may be a mult... Low frequency characteristics of tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies in observation and simulations from the CZ simple atmospheric model and COLA R15 AGCM are analyzed.The results show that ENSO event may be a multi-scale process,that is,ENSO time scale has the period longer than three years; biennial oscillation and annual variability.Dynamical characteristics are involved in the evolution process of wind stress anomaly with ENSO time scale: 1) the development and eastward movement of a cyclonic anomaly circulation in subtropical northwestern Pacific and weakening of Southern Oscillation result in the eastward propagation of westerly anomaly along the equator,therefore,interactions between flows in subtropics and in tropics play an important role in the evolution of wind stress anomaly with ENSO time scale; 2) easterly and westerly anomalies with ENSO time scale are one kind of propagating wave,which differs from Barnett's (1991).It is interesting that the evolution of observed and simulated wind stress anomalies with biennial time scale bears a strong resemble to that with ENSO time scale although their period is different.Observed annual variability is weak during 1979-1981 and intensified after 1981,especially it reaches to maximum during 1982-1984,and the spatial structure of the first mode is the ENSO-like pattern. 展开更多
关键词 Low frequency Wind stress anomaly Comprehensive model biennial oscillation Annual variability
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ADVANCE IN STUDIES OF TROPOSPHERIC BIENNIAL OSCILLATION
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作者 郑彬 梁建茵 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2005年第1期1-9,共9页
There are obvious biennial phenomena of circulation, meteorological and climatic elements in the troposphere, named as Tropospheric (Quasi-) Biennial Oscillation (TBO). Many phenomena of TBO are discovered, such as va... There are obvious biennial phenomena of circulation, meteorological and climatic elements in the troposphere, named as Tropospheric (Quasi-) Biennial Oscillation (TBO). Many phenomena of TBO are discovered, such as variations of TBO in tropospheric temperature, pressure, winds field, monsoon and subtropical high etc. The mechanism of TBO is explored and the results demonstrate that tropical ocean (the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, mainly) and Stratospheric QBO play important roles in the TBO. In addition, Eurasian snow cover and solar activity of 11yr period can affect TBO very possibly. 展开更多
关键词 tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) tropical ocean quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)
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FURTHER RESEARCH ON MECHANISM OF TBO IN SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON REGION 被引量:1
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作者 李崇银 李琳 阙志萍 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2014年第3期202-207,共6页
The results of this study prove that there is significant troposphere biennial oscillation(TBO) in the South Asian climate, especially with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In order to explore the mechanism of TBO ... The results of this study prove that there is significant troposphere biennial oscillation(TBO) in the South Asian climate, especially with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In order to explore the mechanism of TBO in the South Asian region, we defined a unified South Asian monsoon index to depict South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) and South Asian winter monsoon(SAWM) and the transition features between SASM and SAWM. Through further analysis, the connection between the abnormity of SASM and SAWM was discovered. Normally, a strong SAWM is beneficial for a weak SASM later, while a weak SAWM favors a strong SASM. Meanwhile, a strong SASM is favorable for a weak SAWM and a weak SAWM always happens after a weak SASM. Such results suggest the evolution of the South Asian monsoon, which may be an important mechanism to excite TBO in South Asia. 展开更多
关键词 South Asia troposphere biennial oscillation (TBO) MONSOON
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Intensified Impact of the Equatorial QBO in August–September on the Northern Stratospheric Polar Vortex in December–January since the Late 1990s
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作者 Haibo ZHOU Ke FAN 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第5期703-717,共15页
This study reveals an intensified impact of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)in August–September(QBO_AS)on the northern stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)in December–January(SPV_DJ)since the late 1990s.The... This study reveals an intensified impact of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)in August–September(QBO_AS)on the northern stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)in December–January(SPV_DJ)since the late 1990s.The unstable relationship may be related to the differences in the deep convection anomaly over the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans in October–November(ON)related to the QBO_AS prior to and after the late 1990s.During 1998–2017,the easterly phase of the QBO_AS is accompanied by a colder tropical tropopause in ON,which enhances the deep convective activity over the tropical western Pacific and suppresses it over the Indian Ocean.The deep convection anomaly generates anomalous Rossby waves that propagate into the northern mid-to-high latitudes to constructively interfere with the climatological wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 components,thereby resulting in enhanced upward-propagating tropospheric planetary-scale waves and a weakened SPV_DJ anomaly.During1979–1997,however,the deep convection anomaly over the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans in ON related to the easterly phase of the QBO_AS is weaker and shifts eastward,which excites the anomalous Rossby waves to constructively/destructively interfere with the climatological wavenumber-1 component in the midlatitudes/high latitudes,thereby weakening the upward-propagating planetary-scale waves and leading to a weaker linkage with the SPV_DJ.Further analyses reveal that the unstable relationship may be associated with the interdecadal differences in deep convection over the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the upward-propagating tropospheric planetary-scale waves in ON. 展开更多
关键词 equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation stratospheric polar vortex deep convection over the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans planetary-scale waves
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Quasi-biennial oscillation signal detected in the stratospheric zonal wind at 55–65°N 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Yu ZHOU Li-Bo 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2016年第3期147-152,共6页
To investigate the impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on high-latitude circulation and the Arctic vortex, stratospheric zonal wind at 55-65°N is analyzed. The seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and linea... To investigate the impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on high-latitude circulation and the Arctic vortex, stratospheric zonal wind at 55-65°N is analyzed. The seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and linear trend in the zonal wind at these latitudes are analyzed and removed, and the QBO signal is retrieved from the monthly zonal wind for the period 1979-2014. The zonal wind has a strong decreasing trend in winter, with a maximum decrease (less than -0.35 m s-1 yr-1) occurring within 70-100°E. The zonal wind has an in-phase response of 1.6 m s-1 to the solar cycle, with a maximum within 100-140°E. A clear QBO signal is detected in the zonal wind during the period 1979-2014, with an amplitude of 2.5 m s-1 and a period of 30 months. The latitudinal distribution of the QBO signal is inhomogeneous, with a maximum within 120-180°E and a minimum within 25-45°E. 展开更多
关键词 Quasi-biennial oscillation zonal wind Arctic vortex
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Dynamic Seasonal Transition from Winter to Summer in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Yu-Li LIU Yi LIU Chuan-Xi 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2014年第3期180-185,共6页
This study applied the modified spatial similarity coefficient method to define the seasonal transition(ST) from winter to summer in the extratropical stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere.The features of the ST wer... This study applied the modified spatial similarity coefficient method to define the seasonal transition(ST) from winter to summer in the extratropical stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere.The features of the ST were examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Interim reanalysis data;and the results showed that the time and duration of the ST,which is affected by the activity of planetary waves(PW) in the stratosphere,largely depended on the geophysical locations.This study also investigated the interannual variability of the ST and its relationship with stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO).It was shown that the late-onset SSW events(after 22 January) are close to the start of the ST.An easterly(westerly) QBO hastens(delays) the onset of the ST in high and low latitudes,whereas it delays(hastens) the ST in midlatitudes.The duration of the ST is significantly affected by the QBO.The influence of SSW and the QBO have different significance in different latitudes,so they are both important and irreplaceable factors. 展开更多
关键词 SEASONAL transitionstratospherestratospheric SUDDEN warmingquasi-biennial oscillation
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On Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Air-Sea System
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作者 邵永宁 陈隆勋 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1991年第1期11-22,共12页
From the COADS (Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) I and the COADS II, we got a monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional wind components at sea level (U,V) and sea level pressure (... From the COADS (Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) I and the COADS II, we got a monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional wind components at sea level (U,V) and sea level pressure (SLP) with 4°× 4° grid system covering the period from Jan. 1950 to Dec. 1987 to study the evolutional features of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the air-sea system. The analytic method of complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) is used to obtain the composite temporal sequences of amplitude (six phases for half a period) for the first and the second main components of SST, U, V and SLP. It is shown from the results that the main characteristics for different phases of the sea surface temperature anomaly's (SSTA) QBO are warm water / cold water in the equator of the eastern Pacific (EEP). There are two warm or cold water centers of the SSTA in the EEP, which are located in the equator of the central Pacific (ECP) and the east part of the EEP. The features of the source propagation and the influence of these two centers on atmospheric circulation are discussed and it can be seen that in the formation of these two centers, there are different features in oceanic and atmospheric circulations and air-sea coupled process. 展开更多
关键词 On Quasi-biennial oscillation in Air-Sea System SSTA
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Chinese sunspot drawings and their digitization–(Ⅲ)quasi-biennial oscillation of the hand-drawn sunspot records
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作者 Miao Wan Shu-Guang Zeng +1 位作者 Sheng Zheng Gang-Hua Lin 《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第11期354-360,共7页
Quasi-biennial Oscillations(QBOs)of the Sun have a significant meaning as a benchmark of solar cycle,not only for understanding the dynamo action but also in terms of space weather prediction.In this paper,the hand-dr... Quasi-biennial Oscillations(QBOs)of the Sun have a significant meaning as a benchmark of solar cycle,not only for understanding the dynamo action but also in terms of space weather prediction.In this paper,the hand-drawn sunspot images recorded from the Purple Mountain Observatory are used to investigate the solar QBOs and the Gnevyshev gap of the sunspot relative numbers(Rs)and group sunspot numbers(Rg)during the period 1954–2011.The main results are as follows:(1)both the Rs and Rg exhibit similar periods including the 22-year magnetic cycle,the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the QBOs modes;(2)the reconstructed QBOs of both data sets exhibit coherent behavior and tend to have a high amplitude during the maximum phase of each solar cycle;(3)the Gnevyshev gap is produced by the superposition of the QBOs and the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the Rs is better to study the variation of the Gnevyshev gap rather than the Rg. 展开更多
关键词 SUN activity SUN SUNSPOT SUN quasi-biennial oscillation
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亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测 被引量:105
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作者 丁一汇 孙颖 +6 位作者 刘芸芸 司东 王遵娅 朱玉祥 柳艳菊 宋亚芳 张锦 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第2期253-280,共28页
本文是对我们近五年在亚洲夏季风年代际与年际变率及其未来预测方面研究的一个综述。主要包括下列三个问题:(1)根据123年中国夏季降水资料和印度学者的分析,检测出亚洲夏季风具有明显的年代际尺度减弱,这种年代际变化使中国东部(包括东... 本文是对我们近五年在亚洲夏季风年代际与年际变率及其未来预测方面研究的一个综述。主要包括下列三个问题:(1)根据123年中国夏季降水资料和印度学者的分析,检测出亚洲夏季风具有明显的年代际尺度减弱,这种年代际变化使中国东部(包括东亚)和南亚夏季降水的格局在过去60年中发生了明显变化。在东亚,从1970年代后期开始,主要异常雨带有不断南移的趋势,结果造成了南涝北旱的降水分布,这主要受到60~80年年代际振荡的影响。青藏高原前冬和春季积雪的年代际减少与热带中东太平洋海表温度的年代际增加是东亚降水型改变的主要原因,这是通过减弱亚洲地区夏季海陆温差与夏季风强度而实现的。未来亚洲夏季风的预测表明,东亚夏季风和南亚夏季风对气候变暖有十分不同的响应。东亚夏季风在本世纪将增强,雨带北推,尤其在2040年代之后;而南亚夏季风环流将继续减弱。这种不同的变化是由于两者对高低层海陆热力差异的不同响应造成。(2)年际尺度的变率在亚洲夏季风区主要表现为2年与4~7年的振荡。本文着重分析了2年振荡(TBO)形成的过程、机理及其对东亚降水的影响。对TBO—海洋机理进行了具体的改进,说明了东亚夏季风降水深受TBO影响的原因,尤其是阐明了长江型(YRV)TBO和淮河型(HRV)TBO的特征及其形成的循环过程。(3)在总结亚洲夏季风时期遥相关型的基础上,本文提出了季节内和年际尺度的低空遥相关型:即西北太平洋季风的遥相关型与印度"南支"和"北支"遥相关型。它们基本上反映了沿低空夏季风强风速带Rossby波群速度传播的结果。据此可以根据西北太平洋和印度夏季风的变化分别预测中国梅雨和华北雨季来临和降水异常。最后研究还表明,在本世纪亚洲夏季风可能更显著地受到人类活动造成的全球变暖的影响,未来的亚洲夏季风活� 展开更多
关键词 亚洲夏季风 年代际和年际变率 对流层两年振荡(TBO) 遥相关型 季风预测
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中国东部夏季降水的准两年周期振荡及其成因 被引量:94
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作者 黄荣辉 陈际龙 +1 位作者 黄刚 张启龙 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2006年第4期545-560,共16页
应用中国160测站降水资料和ERA-40再分析资料以及EOF和熵谱分析方法,分析了中国夏季(6~8月)降水和东亚水汽输送通量的年际变化,表明中国(特别是华南、长江流域和淮河流域以及华北等地区)夏季降水具有2~3a周期变化特征,即准两... 应用中国160测站降水资料和ERA-40再分析资料以及EOF和熵谱分析方法,分析了中国夏季(6~8月)降水和东亚水汽输送通量的年际变化,表明中国(特别是华南、长江流域和淮河流域以及华北等地区)夏季降水具有2~3a周期变化特征,即准两年周期的振荡特征,并表明中国降水的这种周期振荡与东亚上空夏季风水汽输送通量的准两年周期振荡密切相关;并且,还利用NCEP/NCAR的海表温度和日本气象厅的沿137°E海温剖面观测资料,分析了热带西太平洋表层与次表层海温的年际变化,揭示了热带西太平洋热力状态的变化也有显著的准两年周期的变化特征。作者利用相关和集成分析来讨论热带西太平洋热状态的准两年周期振荡对中国夏季降水和东亚水汽输送的影响,表明了热带西太平洋海温的准两年周期振荡对东亚夏季风及其所驱动的水汽输送都有很大影响。此外,作者还利用东亚/太平洋型(EAP型)遥相关理论,简单地讨论了热带西太平洋热力状态的准两年周期振荡影响中国夏季风降水准两年周期变化的物理机制。 展开更多
关键词 东亚夏季风 降水 准两年周期变化 热带西太平洋
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近百年全球平均气温年际变率中的QBO长期变化特征 被引量:33
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作者 丁裕国 余锦华 施能 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第1期89-102,共14页
应用奇异谱分析(SSA)方法和奇异交叉谱分析(SCSA)方法,对全球及南北半球近100多年(1856~1997年)逐月地面气温距平序列中的准两年周期振荡(QBO)的长期演变特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:全球平均气温序列... 应用奇异谱分析(SSA)方法和奇异交叉谱分析(SCSA)方法,对全球及南北半球近100多年(1856~1997年)逐月地面气温距平序列中的准两年周期振荡(QBO)的长期演变特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:全球平均气温序列蕴含显著的 QBO分量,它们与全球气候系统中其他各个子系统所隐含的QBO信号具有各种耦合对应关系,尤其突出地表现在 Nino区海温和以 SLP序列为代表的全球大气环流系统中 QBO信号的耦合对应关系上。而平均气温的QBO的年代际特征及其变率的阶段性,不但表现在振幅上,而且其位相亦很明显。上述特征在全球、两半球具有明显的差异。 展开更多
关键词 全球平均气温 奇异谱分析 奇异交叉谱分析 QBO年代际变化 气候变化
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准两年振荡及其对东亚大气环流和气候的影响 被引量:29
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作者 李崇银 龙振夏 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 1992年第2期167-176,共10页
通过多年资料分析,本文研究了平流层准两年振荡(QBO)的演变特征及其对东亚及西太平洋地区大气环流和气候变化的影响.结果表明,平流层QBO的演变特征是:东风向西风转换最早出现在印度洋赤道地区;西风向东风转换最早出现在美洲和西太平洋... 通过多年资料分析,本文研究了平流层准两年振荡(QBO)的演变特征及其对东亚及西太平洋地区大气环流和气候变化的影响.结果表明,平流层QBO的演变特征是:东风向西风转换最早出现在印度洋赤道地区;西风向东风转换最早出现在美洲和西太平洋赤道地区.中国东部降水量、气温以及西太平洋副高和东亚急流都有准两年周期变化,并同平流层QBO有密切关系;平流层QBO对西太平洋台风活动也有一定影响,QBO的西风位相期西太平洋台风偏少.另外,ENSO对于平流层QBO有明显影响,一般在ENSO发生之后,QBO的西风位相期持续时间缩短. 展开更多
关键词 东亚 大气环流 气候 准两年振荡
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