The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk （VaR） measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory （EVT） is applied to model the extre...The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk （VaR） measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory （EVT） is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution （GPD）, and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE （Hill） at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.展开更多
文摘测度金融市场动态风险VaR的一个关键在于如何准确刻画金融市场收益波动率。引入马尔可夫状态转移的ARCH(Regime switching ARCH,SWARCH)模型,构建出基于状态转移波动模型的金融市场动态风险测度模型,然后运用其对中国大陆上证综指和伦敦金融时报100指数的市场风险进行测度,并运用Back-testing中的似然比率检验方法(Likelihood Ratio Test,LRT)对金融市场风险测度的准确性进行检验。实证结果表明,基于SWARCH的风险测度模型,不仅能够准确测度不同类型金融市场的动态风险,而且在测度金融市场大风险方面展现出同样具有优越的测度能力。
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No70501025 & 70572089)
文摘The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk （VaR） measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory （EVT） is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution （GPD）, and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE （Hill） at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.
