This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia （ACA） and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU）. O...This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia （ACA） and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU）. Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend （0.7 mm/10 a） in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions （Ⅰ West Kazakhstan region, Ⅱ East Kazakhstan region, ⅢCentral Asia Plains region, Ⅳ Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region）. The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions （regions Ⅰ and Ⅱ, approximately north of 45°N）, whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring （accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation） in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA （subregion Ⅴ） during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions Ⅰ and Ⅲ. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region.展开更多
Three well-dated Sabina Przewalskii ring-width chronologies from Dulan, China, have been used to reconstruct annual precipitation (from prior July to current June) variations on the northeast Tibetan Plateau since 850...Three well-dated Sabina Przewalskii ring-width chronologies from Dulan, China, have been used to reconstruct annual precipitation (from prior July to current June) variations on the northeast Tibetan Plateau since 850 AD. The reconstructions account of the instrumentally recorded precipitation variance are: 54.7% for the period of 1385-2000AD; 50.5% for 1099-1384AD and 45.7% for 850-1098AD. On the millenary scale, the precipitation variation over this region displays “W” shape, which has three peaks and two valleys. The precipitation is low during 1571-1879 AD, and high during 1880-2000 AD. 1900-2000 AD is the century with the highest precipitation over the northeast Tibetan Plateau in the last 1000 years, and 1962-2000 is the period with the highest pre- cipitation, and the highest variability of precipitation as well in the last 1000 years. The reconstructed series also reveals that the variability of annual precipitation is large when the precipitation is more, and contrarily, variability is small when the precipitation is low. With the temperature increasing obvi- ously in the 20th century, the precipitation in the study region significantly increased too, the variability of precipitation became larger, and drought and flooding occurred more frequently. The yearly tree-ring width (high frequency signal) series in this region reflects the local annually precipitation variation. However, the series with 40-year moving average (low frequency signal) cor- responds to the Northern Hemisphere temperature variations on the decadal to centurial scale. It correlates significantly with seven temperature curves of the Northern Hemisphere in the different time spans. For example, the correlation coefficients with the most temperature curves are around 0.9 during the period of 1852-1982 AD. In general, the temperature and the precipitation change syn- chronously in the Dulan region. It means that low temperature corresponds to low precipitation, andvice versa. This relationship may indicate that the climatic pattern i展开更多
There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional a...There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.展开更多
13C of 367 C3 herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ13C values vary between ?21.7%. and ?30.0%., with a mean of ?26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual pr...13C of 367 C3 herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ13C values vary between ?21.7%. and ?30.0%., with a mean of ?26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual precipitation of 400–600 mm, the δ13 C values of C3 herbaceous plants range from ?24.4%. to ?28.5%., with a mean of ?27.5%.. In the west of Loess Plateau (semiarid and arid area) with annual precipitation less than 400 mm, they range between ?21.7%. and ?30.0%., with a mean of ?26.2%.. Annual precipitation is the main factor that makes δ13C values of C3 herbaceous plants in the west greater than those in the central Loess Plateau. The composition of δ13C in C3 plants increases with deceasing annual precipitation, and the mean change is ?49%./100 mm.展开更多
We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used metho...We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using t展开更多
A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-...A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.展开更多
Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 4...Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 48 sites （including temperate meadow steppe, temperate steppe, temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow） were gathered from 31 published papers and monographs to analyze the relationship between above-ground net primary productivity （ANPP） and precipitation by the method of regression analysis. The results indicated that there was a great difference between spatial pattern and temporal pattern by which precipitation influenced grassland ANPP. Mean annual precipitation （MAP） was the main factor determining spatial distribution of grassland ANPP （r^2 = 0.61, P 〈 0.01）; while temporally, no significant relationship was found between the variance of AN PP and inter-annual precipitation for the four types of grassland. However, after dividing annual preeipitation into monthly value and taking time lag effect into account, the study found significant relationships between ANPP and precipitation. For the temperate meadow steppe, the key variable determining inter-annual change of ANPP was last August-May precipitation （r^2 = 0.47, P = 0.01）; for the temperate steppe, the key variable was July precipitation （r^2 = 0.36, P = 0.02）; for the temperate desert steppe, the key variable was April-June precipitation （r^2 = 0.51, P 〈 0.01）; for the alpine meadow, the key variable was last September-May precipitation （r^2 = 0.29, P 〈 0.05）. In comparison with analogous research, the study demonstrated that the key factor determining inter-annual changes of grassland ANPP was the cumulative precipitation in certain periods of that year or the previous year.展开更多
Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by usin...Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indi-cates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.展开更多
The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely us...The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature （SAT） in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability （ILV） than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions （annual or summer or winter mean） of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.展开更多
Based on 3 years （2003-05） of the eddy covariance （EC） observations on degraded grassland and cropland surfaces in a semi-arid area of Tongyu （44°25′N, 122°52′E, 184 m a.s.1.）, Northeast China, seaso...Based on 3 years （2003-05） of the eddy covariance （EC） observations on degraded grassland and cropland surfaces in a semi-arid area of Tongyu （44°25′N, 122°52′E, 184 m a.s.1.）, Northeast China, seasonal and annual variations of water, energy and CO2 fluxes have been investigated. The soil moisture in the thin soil layer （at 0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m） clearly indicates the pronounced annual wet-dry cycle; the annual cycle is divided into the wet （growing season） and dry seasons （non-growing season）. During the growing season （from May to September）, the sensible and latent heat fluxes showed a linear dependence on the global solar radiation. However, in the non-growing season, the latent heat flux was always less than 50 W m^-2, while the available energy was dissipated as sensible, rather than latent heat flux. During the growing season in 2003-05, the daily average sensible and latent heat fluxes were larger on the cropland surface than on the degraded grassland surface. The cropland ecosystem absorbed more CO2 than the degraded grassland ecosystem in the growing season in 2003-05. The total evapotranspiration on the cropland was more than the total precipitation, while the total evapotranspiration on the degraded grassland was almost the same as the total annual precipitation in the growing season. The soil moisture had a good correlation with the rainfall in the growing season. Precipitation in the growing season is an important factor on the water and carbon budget in the semi-arid area.展开更多
Two years of eddy covariance measurements of above- and below-canopy carbon fluxes and static opaque chamber and gas chromatography technique measurements of soil respiration for three treatments (bare soil, soil+litt...Two years of eddy covariance measurements of above- and below-canopy carbon fluxes and static opaque chamber and gas chromatography technique measurements of soil respiration for three treatments (bare soil, soil+litterfall, soil+litterfall+seedling) were carried out in a tropical seasonal rain forest. In addition, data of photosynthesis of dominant tree species and seedlings, leaf area index, litter production and decomposing speed, soil moisture, soil temperature and photosynthetic photon flux density within the forest were all measured concurrently. Data from January 2003 to December 2004 are used to present annual variability of carbon flux and relationships between carbon flux and impact factors. The results show that carbon flux of this forest presented unusual tendency of annual variation; above-canopy carbon fluxes were negative in the dry season (November-April) and mainly positive in the rainy season, but overall the forest is a carbon sink. Carbon flux has obviously diurnal variation in this tropical seasonal rain forest. Above-canopy carbon fluxes were negative in the daytime and absolute values were larger in the dry season than that in the rainy season, causing the forest to act as a carbon sink; at night, carbon fluxes were mainly positive, causing the forest to act as a carbon source. Dominant tree species have greater photosynthesis capability than that of seedlings, which have a great effect on above-canopy carbon flux. There was a significant correlation between above-canopy carbon flux and rate of photosynthesis of tree species. There was also a significant correlation between above-canopy carbon flux and rate of photosynthesis of seedlings; however, the below-canopy carbon flux was only significantly correlated with rate of photosynthesis of seedlings during the hot-dry season. Soil respiration of the three treatments displayed a markedly seasonal dynamic; in addition, above-canopy carbon fluxes correlated well with soil respiration, litterfall production, litterfall decomposition rate, preci展开更多
Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMI...Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.展开更多
Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes （the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights） with respect to a modulated annual cycle （MAC）, and those associated exclusively with we...Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes （the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights） with respect to a modulated annual cycle （MAC）, and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations （WIF） in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm （cold） nights were found to have increased （decreased） significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm （cold） days have increased （decreased） in northern China （north of 40°N）. However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas （by 10%–20%）; summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.展开更多
Background:Gastrointestinal(GI)cancers were responsible for 26.3%of cancer cases and 35.4%of deaths worldwide in 2018.This study aimed to analyze the global incidence,mortality,prevalence,and contributing risk factors...Background:Gastrointestinal(GI)cancers were responsible for 26.3%of cancer cases and 35.4%of deaths worldwide in 2018.This study aimed to analyze the global incidence,mortality,prevalence,and contributing risk factors of the 6 major GI cancer entities[esophageal cancer(EC),gastric cancer(GC),liver cancer(LC),pancreatic cancer(PC),colon cancer,and rectal cancer].Methods:Using the Global Cancer Observatory and the Global Health Observatory databases,we reviewed the current GI cancer incidence,prevalence,and mortality,analyzed the association of GI cancer prevalence with national human development indices(HDIs),identified the contributing risk factors,and estimated developing age-and sex-specific trends in incidence and mortality.Results:In 2020,the trend in age-standardized rate of incidence of GI cancers closely mirrored that of mortality,with the highest rates of LC,EC,and GC in Asia and of colorectal cancer(CRC)and PC mainly in Europe.Incidence and mortality were positively,but the mortality-to-incidence ratio(MIR)was inversely correlated with the national HDI levels.High MIRs in developing countries likely reflected the lack of preventive strategies and effective treatments.GI cancer prevalence was highest in Europe and was also positively correlated with HDIs and lifestyle-associated risk factors,such as alcohol consumption,smoking,obesity,insufficient physical activity,and high blood cholesterol level,but negatively correlated with hypertension and diabetes.Incidences of EC were consistently and those of GC mostly decreasing,whereas incidences of CRC were increasing in most countries/regions,especially in the younger populations.Incidences of LC and PC were also increasing in all age-gender populations except for younger males.Mortalities were decreasing for EC,GC,and CRC in most countries/regions, and age-specific trends were observed in PC and LC with adecrease in the younger but an increase in the older population.Conclusions: On the global scale, higher GI cancer burden was accompanied,for the most part, 展开更多
The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2） in simulat ing global monsoon precipitation （GMP） was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-sl, higher skill in simulati...The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2） in simulat ing global monsoon precipitation （GMP） was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-sl, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon （NWPM） and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s 1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negatiw,＇ pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Nina years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Nifia years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere （lower-troposphere） divergence （convergence） over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical as cent （descent） over the Southwest Indian Ocean （South African monsoon region）, inducing local excessive （deficient） rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMR especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.展开更多
Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(...Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even >30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rat展开更多
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950202)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40971056 and 41021091)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. LZUJBKY-2009-82)
文摘This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia （ACA） and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU）. Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend （0.7 mm/10 a） in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions （Ⅰ West Kazakhstan region, Ⅱ East Kazakhstan region, ⅢCentral Asia Plains region, Ⅳ Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region）. The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions （regions Ⅰ and Ⅱ, approximately north of 45°N）, whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring （accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation） in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA （subregion Ⅴ） during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions Ⅰ and Ⅲ. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40525004,90211018,50279010,40531003 and 40121303)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2004CB720206).
文摘Three well-dated Sabina Przewalskii ring-width chronologies from Dulan, China, have been used to reconstruct annual precipitation (from prior July to current June) variations on the northeast Tibetan Plateau since 850 AD. The reconstructions account of the instrumentally recorded precipitation variance are: 54.7% for the period of 1385-2000AD; 50.5% for 1099-1384AD and 45.7% for 850-1098AD. On the millenary scale, the precipitation variation over this region displays “W” shape, which has three peaks and two valleys. The precipitation is low during 1571-1879 AD, and high during 1880-2000 AD. 1900-2000 AD is the century with the highest precipitation over the northeast Tibetan Plateau in the last 1000 years, and 1962-2000 is the period with the highest pre- cipitation, and the highest variability of precipitation as well in the last 1000 years. The reconstructed series also reveals that the variability of annual precipitation is large when the precipitation is more, and contrarily, variability is small when the precipitation is low. With the temperature increasing obvi- ously in the 20th century, the precipitation in the study region significantly increased too, the variability of precipitation became larger, and drought and flooding occurred more frequently. The yearly tree-ring width (high frequency signal) series in this region reflects the local annually precipitation variation. However, the series with 40-year moving average (low frequency signal) cor- responds to the Northern Hemisphere temperature variations on the decadal to centurial scale. It correlates significantly with seven temperature curves of the Northern Hemisphere in the different time spans. For example, the correlation coefficients with the most temperature curves are around 0.9 during the period of 1852-1982 AD. In general, the temperature and the precipitation change syn- chronously in the Dulan region. It means that low temperature corresponds to low precipitation, andvice versa. This relationship may indicate that the climatic pattern i
文摘There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40072059,40273006 , 49894174).
文摘13C of 367 C3 herbaceous plants was measured in loess area in northern China. Their δ13C values vary between ?21.7%. and ?30.0%., with a mean of ?26.7%.. In the center of Loess Plateau (semimoist area) with annual precipitation of 400–600 mm, the δ13 C values of C3 herbaceous plants range from ?24.4%. to ?28.5%., with a mean of ?27.5%.. In the west of Loess Plateau (semiarid and arid area) with annual precipitation less than 400 mm, they range between ?21.7%. and ?30.0%., with a mean of ?26.2%.. Annual precipitation is the main factor that makes δ13C values of C3 herbaceous plants in the west greater than those in the central Loess Plateau. The composition of δ13C in C3 plants increases with deceasing annual precipitation, and the mean change is ?49%./100 mm.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775057)
文摘We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using t
基金Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049)Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.
基金The National Basic Research Project (973) of China (No. 2002CB412500) and the Pilot Project of Knowledge and InnovationProgram of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX1-01-17)
文摘Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 48 sites （including temperate meadow steppe, temperate steppe, temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow） were gathered from 31 published papers and monographs to analyze the relationship between above-ground net primary productivity （ANPP） and precipitation by the method of regression analysis. The results indicated that there was a great difference between spatial pattern and temporal pattern by which precipitation influenced grassland ANPP. Mean annual precipitation （MAP） was the main factor determining spatial distribution of grassland ANPP （r^2 = 0.61, P 〈 0.01）; while temporally, no significant relationship was found between the variance of AN PP and inter-annual precipitation for the four types of grassland. However, after dividing annual preeipitation into monthly value and taking time lag effect into account, the study found significant relationships between ANPP and precipitation. For the temperate meadow steppe, the key variable determining inter-annual change of ANPP was last August-May precipitation （r^2 = 0.47, P = 0.01）; for the temperate steppe, the key variable was July precipitation （r^2 = 0.36, P = 0.02）; for the temperate desert steppe, the key variable was April-June precipitation （r^2 = 0.51, P 〈 0.01）; for the alpine meadow, the key variable was last September-May precipitation （r^2 = 0.29, P 〈 0.05）. In comparison with analogous research, the study demonstrated that the key factor determining inter-annual changes of grassland ANPP was the cumulative precipitation in certain periods of that year or the previous year.
基金Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03)Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127)Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)
文摘Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indi-cates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.
基金supported by Grant 2006CB400504 from the National Basic Research Program of ChinaGrant LCS-2006-03 fromthe Laboratory for Climate Studies, China MeteorologicalAdministration+1 种基金sponsored by the National Science Foundation of USA (ATM-0653136, ATM-0917743)sponsored by National Key Technologies R&D Pro-gram under Grant No. 2007BAC29B03
文摘The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature （SAT） in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability （ILV） than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions （annual or summer or winter mean） of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2006CB500401)
文摘Based on 3 years （2003-05） of the eddy covariance （EC） observations on degraded grassland and cropland surfaces in a semi-arid area of Tongyu （44°25′N, 122°52′E, 184 m a.s.1.）, Northeast China, seasonal and annual variations of water, energy and CO2 fluxes have been investigated. The soil moisture in the thin soil layer （at 0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m） clearly indicates the pronounced annual wet-dry cycle; the annual cycle is divided into the wet （growing season） and dry seasons （non-growing season）. During the growing season （from May to September）, the sensible and latent heat fluxes showed a linear dependence on the global solar radiation. However, in the non-growing season, the latent heat flux was always less than 50 W m^-2, while the available energy was dissipated as sensible, rather than latent heat flux. During the growing season in 2003-05, the daily average sensible and latent heat fluxes were larger on the cropland surface than on the degraded grassland surface. The cropland ecosystem absorbed more CO2 than the degraded grassland ecosystem in the growing season in 2003-05. The total evapotranspiration on the cropland was more than the total precipitation, while the total evapotranspiration on the degraded grassland was almost the same as the total annual precipitation in the growing season. The soil moisture had a good correlation with the rainfall in the growing season. Precipitation in the growing season is an important factor on the water and carbon budget in the semi-arid area.
基金We give thanks to Xishuangbanna Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences for help on this project. We offer special thanks to Mr. Liu Mengnan, Zhou Zhihua, Cao Bizhong, Chen Defu,Lu Yun, Li Qinghua and Li Zhongfei for assistance with the fieldwork. This work was supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX1-SW-01-01)the Development Program in Basic Science of China (Grant No. 2002CB412501).
文摘Two years of eddy covariance measurements of above- and below-canopy carbon fluxes and static opaque chamber and gas chromatography technique measurements of soil respiration for three treatments (bare soil, soil+litterfall, soil+litterfall+seedling) were carried out in a tropical seasonal rain forest. In addition, data of photosynthesis of dominant tree species and seedlings, leaf area index, litter production and decomposing speed, soil moisture, soil temperature and photosynthetic photon flux density within the forest were all measured concurrently. Data from January 2003 to December 2004 are used to present annual variability of carbon flux and relationships between carbon flux and impact factors. The results show that carbon flux of this forest presented unusual tendency of annual variation; above-canopy carbon fluxes were negative in the dry season (November-April) and mainly positive in the rainy season, but overall the forest is a carbon sink. Carbon flux has obviously diurnal variation in this tropical seasonal rain forest. Above-canopy carbon fluxes were negative in the daytime and absolute values were larger in the dry season than that in the rainy season, causing the forest to act as a carbon sink; at night, carbon fluxes were mainly positive, causing the forest to act as a carbon source. Dominant tree species have greater photosynthesis capability than that of seedlings, which have a great effect on above-canopy carbon flux. There was a significant correlation between above-canopy carbon flux and rate of photosynthesis of tree species. There was also a significant correlation between above-canopy carbon flux and rate of photosynthesis of seedlings; however, the below-canopy carbon flux was only significantly correlated with rate of photosynthesis of seedlings during the hot-dry season. Soil respiration of the three treatments displayed a markedly seasonal dynamic; in addition, above-canopy carbon fluxes correlated well with soil respiration, litterfall production, litterfall decomposition rate, preci
文摘Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (GrantNo. 2011CB952000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41005039 and40810059003)+1 种基金Yan and Tu were sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421401)Wu was sponsored by the National Science Foundation of USA (ATM-0653136, ATM-0917743)
文摘Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes （the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights） with respect to a modulated annual cycle （MAC）, and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations （WIF） in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm （cold） nights were found to have increased （decreased） significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm （cold） days have increased （decreased） in northern China （north of 40°N）. However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas （by 10%–20%）; summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.
基金supported by the China Scholarship Council(grant number:201908080127).
文摘Background:Gastrointestinal(GI)cancers were responsible for 26.3%of cancer cases and 35.4%of deaths worldwide in 2018.This study aimed to analyze the global incidence,mortality,prevalence,and contributing risk factors of the 6 major GI cancer entities[esophageal cancer(EC),gastric cancer(GC),liver cancer(LC),pancreatic cancer(PC),colon cancer,and rectal cancer].Methods:Using the Global Cancer Observatory and the Global Health Observatory databases,we reviewed the current GI cancer incidence,prevalence,and mortality,analyzed the association of GI cancer prevalence with national human development indices(HDIs),identified the contributing risk factors,and estimated developing age-and sex-specific trends in incidence and mortality.Results:In 2020,the trend in age-standardized rate of incidence of GI cancers closely mirrored that of mortality,with the highest rates of LC,EC,and GC in Asia and of colorectal cancer(CRC)and PC mainly in Europe.Incidence and mortality were positively,but the mortality-to-incidence ratio(MIR)was inversely correlated with the national HDI levels.High MIRs in developing countries likely reflected the lack of preventive strategies and effective treatments.GI cancer prevalence was highest in Europe and was also positively correlated with HDIs and lifestyle-associated risk factors,such as alcohol consumption,smoking,obesity,insufficient physical activity,and high blood cholesterol level,but negatively correlated with hypertension and diabetes.Incidences of EC were consistently and those of GC mostly decreasing,whereas incidences of CRC were increasing in most countries/regions,especially in the younger populations.Incidences of LC and PC were also increasing in all age-gender populations except for younger males.Mortalities were decreasing for EC,GC,and CRC in most countries/regions, and age-specific trends were observed in PC and LC with adecrease in the younger but an increase in the older population.Conclusions: On the global scale, higher GI cancer burden was accompanied,for the most part,
基金supported by the"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110301)the Program of Excellent State Key Laboratories(Grant No.41023002)the National HighTech Research and Development Plan of China(Grant No.2010AA012302)
文摘The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-s2） in simulat ing global monsoon precipitation （GMP） was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-sl, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon （NWPM） and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s 1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negatiw,＇ pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Nina years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Nifia years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere （lower-troposphere） divergence （convergence） over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical as cent （descent） over the Southwest Indian Ocean （South African monsoon region）, inducing local excessive （deficient） rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMR especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.
基金supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306011)the Research on Key Prediction Technology of Warm Sector Rainstorm(Grant No.YBGJXM(2017)1A-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41475041)
文摘Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even >30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rat
