Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land...Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios-namely, land use planning scenario, natural development sce- nario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario-were explored accord- ing to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following： （1） Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989-2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989-2000 to 3.96% during 2000-2010. （2） Land use changed significantly throughout 1989-2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to for- estland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland. （3） Under the land use planning sce- nario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural d展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41171088,No.41571087
文摘Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios-namely, land use planning scenario, natural development sce- nario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario-were explored accord- ing to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following： （1） Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989-2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989-2000 to 3.96% during 2000-2010. （2） Land use changed significantly throughout 1989-2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to for- estland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland. （3） Under the land use planning sce- nario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural d
