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基于总体最小二乘法的系统响应修正方法 被引量:10
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作者 包为民 孙逸群 +3 位作者 周俊伟 司伟 张乾 程翔 《水利学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第5期560-567,共8页
为了提高实时洪水预报的预报精度,提出了基于总体最小二乘平差理论的系统响应方法。传统的系统响应方法基于最小二乘法,只能考虑观测值的误差,因而传统的系统响应方法不能考虑动态系统响应矩阵存在的误差。对传统方法进行了分析并引入... 为了提高实时洪水预报的预报精度,提出了基于总体最小二乘平差理论的系统响应方法。传统的系统响应方法基于最小二乘法,只能考虑观测值的误差,因而传统的系统响应方法不能考虑动态系统响应矩阵存在的误差。对传统方法进行了分析并引入了总体最小二乘平差理论,改进方法同时考虑了动态系统响应矩阵和观测值的误差。针对动态系统响应矩阵的病态情形,通过总体最小二乘的岭估计解法给出稳定解。通过改进方法对新安江模型中的土壤含水量进行修正,应用于七里街流域,并与传统的系统响应方法进行比较。结果表明,两种方法都能提高模拟精度,改进方法相比于传统方法精度明显提升;改进方法的修正效果要优于传统方法,更加稳定。 展开更多
关键词 洪水预报 误差修正 系统响应方法 总体最小二乘平差 新安江模型
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Coupling the Xinanjiang model with geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph for flood forecasting in northeast China 被引量:2
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作者 Fanghua Hao Mingze Sun +2 位作者 Xiaojun Geng Weijia Huang Wei Ouyangn 《International Soil and Water Conservation Research》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期66-76,共11页
The Xinanjiang(XAJ)model has been successfully applied in humid and semi-humid regions.Considering the geomorphologic factors to accurately estimate floods,this study adopted the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydr... The Xinanjiang(XAJ)model has been successfully applied in humid and semi-humid regions.Considering the geomorphologic factors to accurately estimate floods,this study adopted the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH)method to calculate the surface runoff instead of the experience unit hydrograph(EUH)in the original model.The geomorphologic factors of the case study basin were obtained by using a digital elevation model(DEM)and the Terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Models(TauDEM).Furthermore,the dynamic Muskingum model was used for the channel flood routing.This study focused on the simulation of heavy precipitation and floods over the Chong River,which is a tributary river to the Songhua River on the right bank in northeast China.The detailed steps of the method were shown,up to the estimated value of flood runoff discharges and flood peaks and their comparison with observed values.The average deterministic coefficients(DCs)of model calibration and validation were 0.89 and 0.83,respectively.The results show that the model precision is high and the model is feasible for flood forecasting.Lastly,some methodological perspectives to enhance the method are presented. 展开更多
关键词 Hydrological model xinanjiang(xaj)model Geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH) Muskingum model Flood forecasting
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