The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions ...The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions according to their X ray classes, durations and intensities are constructed. The evolution of these distributions in solar cycle as well as from cycle to cycle is studied. The statistical analysis of the flare characteristics is made. There was confirmed the result of more frequent occurrence for powerful flares in cycle 21 decline phase.展开更多
We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attract...We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent （MLE） for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 （month^- 1）. Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.展开更多
文摘The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions according to their X ray classes, durations and intensities are constructed. The evolution of these distributions in solar cycle as well as from cycle to cycle is studied. The statistical analysis of the flare characteristics is made. There was confirmed the result of more frequent occurrence for powerful flares in cycle 21 decline phase.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent （MLE） for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 （month^- 1）. Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
