Trade facilitation is one of the five main agendas of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). Social network analysis has helped understand the complexity of trade networks, but existing studies tend to overlook the fact t...Trade facilitation is one of the five main agendas of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). Social network analysis has helped understand the complexity of trade networks, but existing studies tend to overlook the fact that not all bilateral trade relations are equally important to a country. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper focuses on the top 2 trade relations networks to illuminate the structure and evolution of B&R trade relations, the relative positions of different countries, and changes in the composition of trade communities(e.g., the community leaders) and the changing patterns of trade between them. We find rich dynamics over time both inter-and intra-communities. The overall international trade networks of B&R countries experienced a leadership change from Russia to China on one hand, some temporary communities experienced emergence, disappearance(e.g. the Kuwait-and Thailand-led communities) or reemergence(e.g. Poland-led community), and a community membership was generally consistent on the other hand. Since the future impacts of China's BRI will depend on the degree of integration of the connected regions, some countries with stable and high centrality indices(e.g. Russia, Singapore, Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Iran, Poland, Hungary and Romania) could be selected by China as strategic regional partners, and countries with a strategically important geographical position but weak trade links(e.g. Myanmar, Pakistan, and Belarus) should be prioritized.展开更多
Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Coope...Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants＇ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） is not only China＇s new action to drive its open and global develoPment, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, the topological relationship between the this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community （South Asia-West Asia）. Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Ger- many-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topo- logical analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-A展开更多
基金National Social Science Foundation of China,No.17VDL008The Project of Bureau of International Cooperation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.131A11KYSB20170014+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530751,No.41471113,No.41701125Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea,No.NRF-2015S1A3A2047036
文摘Trade facilitation is one of the five main agendas of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). Social network analysis has helped understand the complexity of trade networks, but existing studies tend to overlook the fact that not all bilateral trade relations are equally important to a country. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper focuses on the top 2 trade relations networks to illuminate the structure and evolution of B&R trade relations, the relative positions of different countries, and changes in the composition of trade communities(e.g., the community leaders) and the changing patterns of trade between them. We find rich dynamics over time both inter-and intra-communities. The overall international trade networks of B&R countries experienced a leadership change from Russia to China on one hand, some temporary communities experienced emergence, disappearance(e.g. the Kuwait-and Thailand-led communities) or reemergence(e.g. Poland-led community), and a community membership was generally consistent on the other hand. Since the future impacts of China's BRI will depend on the degree of integration of the connected regions, some countries with stable and high centrality indices(e.g. Russia, Singapore, Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Iran, Poland, Hungary and Romania) could be selected by China as strategic regional partners, and countries with a strategically important geographical position but weak trade links(e.g. Myanmar, Pakistan, and Belarus) should be prioritized.
基金CAS Priority Research Program,No.XDA20010102National Social Science Foundation of China,No.17VDL008
文摘Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants＇ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） is not only China＇s new action to drive its open and global develoPment, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, the topological relationship between the this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community （South Asia-West Asia）. Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Ger- many-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topo- logical analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-A
