This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degre...This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.展开更多
Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calcula...Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.展开更多
文摘This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.
基金under the research project "The Opening Policy and Industrial Upgrading in China:Theory,Empirics and Policy"(10JJD790009)sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China
文摘Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.
