采用FNL再分析资料和美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)资料,运用中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,分别使用增长模繁殖法(Breeding of Growing Mode,BGM)和集合卡尔曼变换方法(Ensemble Transf...采用FNL再分析资料和美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)资料,运用中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,分别使用增长模繁殖法(Breeding of Growing Mode,BGM)和集合卡尔曼变换方法(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF),对1209号台风"苏拉"进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明:采用BGM或ETKF初始扰动的集合预报系统,集合平均预报对风场、温度场、位势高度场的预报效果均优于控制预报;ETKF方法的预报改进程度较BGM方法更大,且对风场和温度场预报技巧的优势尤为明显。BGM方法所得到的集合成员离散度小于ETKF方法,对大气真实状态的表征能力不及后者;两种扰动方法的集合平均都明显改善了台风"苏拉"的路径预报结果,尤其是控制预报在福建沿海第二次登陆后移速过快的问题,但对台风登陆位置预报的改进不明显;此外,采用ETKF方法的集合平均对台风"苏拉"路径预报的改进效果远优于采用BGM方法的集合平均预报。展开更多
Forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks from six global models during 2010 and 2012 were assessed to study the current capability of track forecast guidance over the western North Pacific.To measure the performance of...Forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks from six global models during 2010 and 2012 were assessed to study the current capability of track forecast guidance over the western North Pacific.To measure the performance of the global model forecasts,a series of statistical evaluations of track forecasts up to 120 h were carried out,including the mean,median,percentile distribution,regional distribution,relative position,correlation analysis,and binned analysis.Results showed that certain improvements have been made for the six global models in their prediction accuracy and stability in the past three years.Remarkably,stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were found at all lead time levels from 2010 to 2012 for NCEP-GFS.An analysis of the regional distribution of position errors showed that a high-latitude region,low-latitude region(which covers mostly the TC genesis region)and the South China Sea are the three main areas within which large errors tend to concentrate.The majority of the models show their own respective characteristics of systematic bias at each lead time,as established through the relative position analysis results.Only the results of NCEP-GFS and CMA-T639 did not show any obvious systematic bias in the three-year study period.Binned analyses indicated that the prediction accuracy and stability of most of the models were better for strong TCs than for weak TCs at short lead time levels.It was also found that the models tend to perform better for initially large TCs,or for those with weak vertical wind shear at lead times shorter than 48 h.The results demonstrate the heavy reliance of forecast errors upon the initial characteristics of a TC or its environmental conditions.展开更多
文摘采用FNL再分析资料和美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)资料,运用中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,分别使用增长模繁殖法(Breeding of Growing Mode,BGM)和集合卡尔曼变换方法(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF),对1209号台风"苏拉"进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明:采用BGM或ETKF初始扰动的集合预报系统,集合平均预报对风场、温度场、位势高度场的预报效果均优于控制预报;ETKF方法的预报改进程度较BGM方法更大,且对风场和温度场预报技巧的优势尤为明显。BGM方法所得到的集合成员离散度小于ETKF方法,对大气真实状态的表征能力不及后者;两种扰动方法的集合平均都明显改善了台风"苏拉"的路径预报结果,尤其是控制预报在福建沿海第二次登陆后移速过快的问题,但对台风登陆位置预报的改进不明显;此外,采用ETKF方法的集合平均对台风"苏拉"路径预报的改进效果远优于采用BGM方法的集合平均预报。
基金supported by the Projects for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China(GYHY201006008)National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421505)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275067)the Science and technology Development Project of SMB(QM201202)WMO-TLFDP,the ESCAP/WMO typhoon Committee。
文摘Forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks from six global models during 2010 and 2012 were assessed to study the current capability of track forecast guidance over the western North Pacific.To measure the performance of the global model forecasts,a series of statistical evaluations of track forecasts up to 120 h were carried out,including the mean,median,percentile distribution,regional distribution,relative position,correlation analysis,and binned analysis.Results showed that certain improvements have been made for the six global models in their prediction accuracy and stability in the past three years.Remarkably,stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were found at all lead time levels from 2010 to 2012 for NCEP-GFS.An analysis of the regional distribution of position errors showed that a high-latitude region,low-latitude region(which covers mostly the TC genesis region)and the South China Sea are the three main areas within which large errors tend to concentrate.The majority of the models show their own respective characteristics of systematic bias at each lead time,as established through the relative position analysis results.Only the results of NCEP-GFS and CMA-T639 did not show any obvious systematic bias in the three-year study period.Binned analyses indicated that the prediction accuracy and stability of most of the models were better for strong TCs than for weak TCs at short lead time levels.It was also found that the models tend to perform better for initially large TCs,or for those with weak vertical wind shear at lead times shorter than 48 h.The results demonstrate the heavy reliance of forecast errors upon the initial characteristics of a TC or its environmental conditions.
