Several sensitivity experiments are done by using the T42L9 global spectral model developed by IAP for investigating the influence of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in different regions on the South China Sea ...Several sensitivity experiments are done by using the T42L9 global spectral model developed by IAP for investigating the influence of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in different regions on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSM).It shows that when SSTA presents a La Nina pattern,the onset date of SCSM will be earlier and the convection in the South China Sea region will be consistently stronger,and vice versa.Specially,SSTA in the central and eastern Pacific plays a main role in the variation of the onset and the strength of SCSM.When SSTA of this area is lower,the onset of SCSM comes earlier,the strength of SCSM becomes stronger, otherwise,the conclusion is contrary.The influence of SSTA in the tropical West Pacific on the onset date of SCSM is not clear,but it strongly affects the strength of the monsoon.The warmer SST in this region will bring about a stronger SCSM,and vice versa.The relationship between SSTA in the tropical western Indian Ocean and SCSM has been investigated.It is found that the SSTA in this region can influence the onset of SCSM,and plays a role similar to the one in the eastern Pacific.The above results also reflect that the activity of SCSM has a close relationship with the El Nino or La Nina events.The onset and the strength change of the SCSM are obviously influenced by the heating status anomaly on the tropic Pacific through the Walker circulation.展开更多
Numerical experiments with a low resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted to investigate the influences of SST anomalies (SSTA) over the South China Sea- tropical eastern indian Ocean (SC...Numerical experiments with a low resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted to investigate the influences of SST anomalies (SSTA) over the South China Sea- tropical eastern indian Ocean (SCS-TEIO) on the onset of the South China Sea summer Monsoon (SCSM).With positive SSTA over the SCS-TEIO,the anomalous cyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which weakens the Somali and Australian cross-equatorial SW flow. The anomalous anticyclone in the east of Phillips strengthens the subtropical high with its ridge southwestward shifted.The anomalous anticyclones over both sides of equator at high layer strengthen the South Asia high,thus weaken the SCSM and delay its onset.With negative SSTA over the SCS-ETIO,the anomalous anticyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which strengthen the Australian but weaken the Somali cross-equatorial SW flow.The anomalous cyclone in northeast of Phillips will weaken the subtropical high.The stronger monsoon meridional circulation over the tropical western Pacific will strengthen the cross-equatorial southerly flow,and the anomalous cyclones over both sides of equator at high layer will weaken the South Asia high,hence strengthen the SCSM and advance its onset.展开更多
利用最小二乘回归支持向量机LS-SVMR(least square support vectors machines for regression)对2个不同长度的时间序列资料,国家气候中心1982年1月~2005年12月Nino3区逐月海温距平指数(短序列),及1950年1月~2006年12月Nino3区逐月海温...利用最小二乘回归支持向量机LS-SVMR(least square support vectors machines for regression)对2个不同长度的时间序列资料,国家气候中心1982年1月~2005年12月Nino3区逐月海温距平指数(短序列),及1950年1月~2006年12月Nino3区逐月海温距平指数(长序列)资料进行了预测试验,以验证支持向量机对气候变化中非线性时间序列的预测效果。结果表明:通过训练建立的最小二乘回归支持向量机模型,较好地反映了Nino3区海温距平指数的变化规律,36个月的预报效果较好,具有一定的可信度。资料的长度越长,预测结果与实测值的变化趋势越接近,但资料长度对均方根预报误差不敏感。展开更多
基金the Climbing Programme"A"of SCSMEX under the Ministry of Science and Technology of Chinathe project ZKCX2-SW-210 under the Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe key project 40135020 of NSFC
文摘Several sensitivity experiments are done by using the T42L9 global spectral model developed by IAP for investigating the influence of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in different regions on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSM).It shows that when SSTA presents a La Nina pattern,the onset date of SCSM will be earlier and the convection in the South China Sea region will be consistently stronger,and vice versa.Specially,SSTA in the central and eastern Pacific plays a main role in the variation of the onset and the strength of SCSM.When SSTA of this area is lower,the onset of SCSM comes earlier,the strength of SCSM becomes stronger, otherwise,the conclusion is contrary.The influence of SSTA in the tropical West Pacific on the onset date of SCSM is not clear,but it strongly affects the strength of the monsoon.The warmer SST in this region will bring about a stronger SCSM,and vice versa.The relationship between SSTA in the tropical western Indian Ocean and SCSM has been investigated.It is found that the SSTA in this region can influence the onset of SCSM,and plays a role similar to the one in the eastern Pacific.The above results also reflect that the activity of SCSM has a close relationship with the El Nino or La Nina events.The onset and the strength change of the SCSM are obviously influenced by the heating status anomaly on the tropic Pacific through the Walker circulation.
基金National Climbing Programme"South China Sea Monsoon Experiment"National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900
文摘Numerical experiments with a low resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted to investigate the influences of SST anomalies (SSTA) over the South China Sea- tropical eastern indian Ocean (SCS-TEIO) on the onset of the South China Sea summer Monsoon (SCSM).With positive SSTA over the SCS-TEIO,the anomalous cyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which weakens the Somali and Australian cross-equatorial SW flow. The anomalous anticyclone in the east of Phillips strengthens the subtropical high with its ridge southwestward shifted.The anomalous anticyclones over both sides of equator at high layer strengthen the South Asia high,thus weaken the SCSM and delay its onset.With negative SSTA over the SCS-ETIO,the anomalous anticyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which strengthen the Australian but weaken the Somali cross-equatorial SW flow.The anomalous cyclone in northeast of Phillips will weaken the subtropical high.The stronger monsoon meridional circulation over the tropical western Pacific will strengthen the cross-equatorial southerly flow,and the anomalous cyclones over both sides of equator at high layer will weaken the South Asia high,hence strengthen the SCSM and advance its onset.
文摘利用最小二乘回归支持向量机LS-SVMR(least square support vectors machines for regression)对2个不同长度的时间序列资料,国家气候中心1982年1月~2005年12月Nino3区逐月海温距平指数(短序列),及1950年1月~2006年12月Nino3区逐月海温距平指数(长序列)资料进行了预测试验,以验证支持向量机对气候变化中非线性时间序列的预测效果。结果表明:通过训练建立的最小二乘回归支持向量机模型,较好地反映了Nino3区海温距平指数的变化规律,36个月的预报效果较好,具有一定的可信度。资料的长度越长,预测结果与实测值的变化趋势越接近,但资料长度对均方根预报误差不敏感。
