This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the le...This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the leakages can be initiated.These are:gas and oil wells,pipelines,key facilities and third party damage.Conventional FTA requires precise values for the probability of failure of the basic events.However,since the failure data are uncertain,a fuzzy approach to these data is taken which leads to the so-called fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA),a method that employs expert elicitation and fuzzy set theories to calculate the failure probabilities of the intermediate events and the top event through identification of the minimal cut sets of the fault tree.A number of importance measures for minimal cut sets and the basic events have been obtained which helps to identify the nature of dependence of the top event on the basic events and thereby can identify the weakest links that may cause leakage in the subsea production system.展开更多
In this paper we proceed with the multiscale analysis of semilinear damped stochastic wave motions. The analysis is made by combining the well-known sigma convergence method with its stochastic counterpart, associated...In this paper we proceed with the multiscale analysis of semilinear damped stochastic wave motions. The analysis is made by combining the well-known sigma convergence method with its stochastic counterpart, associated to some compactness results such as the Prokhorov and Skorokhod theorems. We derive the equivalent model, which is of the same type as the micro-model. One of the novelties of the work is that the corrector problem is solved in the classical sense of distributions,thereby allowing numerical computations of the homogenized coefficients.展开更多
Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of...Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.展开更多
We explore an idea of transferring some classic measures of global dependence between random variables Χ1, Χ2, L, Χn into cumulative measures of dependence relative at any point?(χ1, χ2, L, χn)?in the sample spa...We explore an idea of transferring some classic measures of global dependence between random variables Χ1, Χ2, L, Χn into cumulative measures of dependence relative at any point?(χ1, χ2, L, χn)?in the sample space. It allows studying the behavior of these measures throughout the sample space, and better understanding and use of dependence. Some examples on popular copula distributions are also provided.展开更多
文摘This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the leakages can be initiated.These are:gas and oil wells,pipelines,key facilities and third party damage.Conventional FTA requires precise values for the probability of failure of the basic events.However,since the failure data are uncertain,a fuzzy approach to these data is taken which leads to the so-called fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA),a method that employs expert elicitation and fuzzy set theories to calculate the failure probabilities of the intermediate events and the top event through identification of the minimal cut sets of the fault tree.A number of importance measures for minimal cut sets and the basic events have been obtained which helps to identify the nature of dependence of the top event on the basic events and thereby can identify the weakest links that may cause leakage in the subsea production system.
文摘In this paper we proceed with the multiscale analysis of semilinear damped stochastic wave motions. The analysis is made by combining the well-known sigma convergence method with its stochastic counterpart, associated to some compactness results such as the Prokhorov and Skorokhod theorems. We derive the equivalent model, which is of the same type as the micro-model. One of the novelties of the work is that the corrector problem is solved in the classical sense of distributions,thereby allowing numerical computations of the homogenized coefficients.
文摘Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.
文摘We explore an idea of transferring some classic measures of global dependence between random variables Χ1, Χ2, L, Χn into cumulative measures of dependence relative at any point?(χ1, χ2, L, χn)?in the sample space. It allows studying the behavior of these measures throughout the sample space, and better understanding and use of dependence. Some examples on popular copula distributions are also provided.
