Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated...Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4＆#176;C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system （SRCS）, early triple cropping rice system （ETCRS）, medium triple cropping rice system （MTCRS）, and late triple cropping rice system （LTCRS） moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.展开更多
This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations...This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting re- gions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south bound- ary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt： south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt： south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.展开更多
Mango is an important cash crop in the tropics and subtropics. Determining the yield gap of mango and production constraints can potentially promote the sustainable development of the mango industry. In this study, bo...Mango is an important cash crop in the tropics and subtropics. Determining the yield gap of mango and production constraints can potentially promote the sustainable development of the mango industry. In this study, boundary line analysis based on survey data from 103 smallholder farmers and a yield gap model were used to determine the yield gap and production constraints in mango plantations in the northern mountain, central valley and southern mountains regions of Tianyang County, Guangxi, China. The results indicated that the yield of mango in three representing regions of Tianyang County,Northern Mountains, Central Valley and Southern Mountains, was 18.3, 17.0 and 15.4 t ha^–1 yr^–1, with an explainable yield gap of 10.9, 6.1 and 14.8 t ha^–1 yr^–1, respectively. Fertilization management, including fertilizer N, P2O5 and K2O application rates, and planting density were the main limiting factors of mango yield in all three regions. In addition, tree age influenced mango yield in the Northern Mountains(11.1%) and Central Valley(11.7%) regions. Irrigation time influenced mango yield in the Northern Mountains(9.9%) and Southern Mountains(12.2%). Based on a scenario analysis, the predicted yield would increase by up to 50%, and fertilizer N use would be reduced by as much as approximately 20%. An improved understanding of production constraints will aid in the development of management strategy measures to increase mango yield.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951502)the Special Fund for Meteorology-Scientific Research in the Public Interest,China(GYHY201106020)
文摘Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4＆#176;C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system （SRCS）, early triple cropping rice system （ETCRS）, medium triple cropping rice system （MTCRS）, and late triple cropping rice system （LTCRS） moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.
基金National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(Study on allocation of water and land resources based on food security at population peaks in ChinaNo.41471463)
文摘This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting re- gions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south bound- ary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt： south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt： south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFE0101100 and 2016YFD0201137)the Innovative Group Grant of the National Science Foundation of China (31421092)
文摘Mango is an important cash crop in the tropics and subtropics. Determining the yield gap of mango and production constraints can potentially promote the sustainable development of the mango industry. In this study, boundary line analysis based on survey data from 103 smallholder farmers and a yield gap model were used to determine the yield gap and production constraints in mango plantations in the northern mountain, central valley and southern mountains regions of Tianyang County, Guangxi, China. The results indicated that the yield of mango in three representing regions of Tianyang County,Northern Mountains, Central Valley and Southern Mountains, was 18.3, 17.0 and 15.4 t ha^–1 yr^–1, with an explainable yield gap of 10.9, 6.1 and 14.8 t ha^–1 yr^–1, respectively. Fertilization management, including fertilizer N, P2O5 and K2O application rates, and planting density were the main limiting factors of mango yield in all three regions. In addition, tree age influenced mango yield in the Northern Mountains(11.1%) and Central Valley(11.7%) regions. Irrigation time influenced mango yield in the Northern Mountains(9.9%) and Southern Mountains(12.2%). Based on a scenario analysis, the predicted yield would increase by up to 50%, and fertilizer N use would be reduced by as much as approximately 20%. An improved understanding of production constraints will aid in the development of management strategy measures to increase mango yield.
