The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate t...The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.展开更多
Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interes...Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.展开更多
建立了网红减肥类食品中非法添加匹可硫酸钠检测的超高效液相色谱-串联质谱(UHPLC-MS/MS)方法。样品经甲醇水溶液-盐析辅助体系提取,Oasis PRiME HLB通过式固相萃取柱净化,C_(18)色谱柱分离,流动相为乙腈-乙酸铵,采用梯度洗脱,电喷雾离...建立了网红减肥类食品中非法添加匹可硫酸钠检测的超高效液相色谱-串联质谱(UHPLC-MS/MS)方法。样品经甲醇水溶液-盐析辅助体系提取,Oasis PRiME HLB通过式固相萃取柱净化,C_(18)色谱柱分离,流动相为乙腈-乙酸铵,采用梯度洗脱,电喷雾离子源正离子(ESI+)电离模式,多反应监测(MRM)进行扫描,外标法定量。本研究优化了提取体系,实现不同基质样品很好的分散,抗干扰效果好。采用该实验建立的方法,匹可硫酸钠在0.50~250.00 ng/mL范围内线性关系良好,相关系数(r^(2))大于0.998,方法检出限(S/N≥3)为10.00μg/kg,定量限(S/N≥10)为25.00μg/kg。在低(25.00μg/kg)、中(50.00μg/kg)、高(250.00μg/kg)3个浓度水平下平均回收率在81.51%~104.53%之间,相对标准偏差相对标准偏差(RSD)在1.14%~5.64%之间。该方法简便、高效、准确性好、抗干扰能力强,适用于减肥类食品中非法添加匹可硫酸钠的准确定性、定量分析。展开更多
During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation ...During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.展开更多
This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts s...This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate.By estimating the level of exchange rate pass-through and trade volume elasticity,we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries,predicted by the producer currency pricing(PCP)paradigm.We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries.The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes,reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination,whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China s important position in global value chains.展开更多
The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an ...The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.展开更多
The minimum wage policy should take into account production costs of enterprises and welfare benefits of families.This paper describes the pass-through process of the minimum wage costs in the enterprise sector and th...The minimum wage policy should take into account production costs of enterprises and welfare benefits of families.This paper describes the pass-through process of the minimum wage costs in the enterprise sector and the household sector by building a theoretical model,investigates the impact of the minimum wage adjustment on urban household consumption utility and its price pass-through mechanism from the perspective of living costs based on several sets of databases,such as household survey,supermarket prices and industrial enterprises for the first time,and further estimates the net welfare changes including income compensation and consumption utility loss.The findings of the study are as below:(1)The price transfer behavior of enterprises is the main cause of the loss of household consumption utility.The average wage level and labor costs of enterprises rise with the increase of minimum wages.Both the cost-price pass-through elasticity estimated based on the theoretical model and the minimum wage price elasticity coefficient obtained by empirical estimation show that the price transfer behavior of enterprises leads to the rise of final consumer prices;(2)With a 10% increase in minimum wages,the overall household living costs increase by 2.47%-6.76%,and the economic living costs increase by about 122-334 yuan per quarter,among which the living costs are most affected in terms of food,shoes and clothing;(3)Under the combined effect of income compensation and consumption utility loss,the bottom 20% of households and middle 60% of households will get 658 yuan and 469-556 yuan per quarter,respectively.The findings of this paper are conducive to improving the supporting minimum wage policy by taking a number of measures simultaneously,so as to provide a path reference for promoting the realization of Chinese modernization and expanding domestic demand for common prosperity for all.展开更多
We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error corr...We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.展开更多
The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses...The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post-reform period, after 2005, allowing greater ftexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass-through. Evidence reveals that China＇s share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass-through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China＇s exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.展开更多
This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based o...This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based on data from July 1997 to December 2012 reveal that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between inflation in Chinese Mainland and inflation in both Hong Kong and Macao, the two Special Administrative Regions of China. The degree of inflation pass-through is higher for Macao than for Hong Kong. Moreover, we find no evidence of asymmetries in either Hong Kong and Macao＇s adjustment speeds towards long-run equilibrium or in the short-run pass-through of accelerating or decelerating inflation in the Mainland. Collectively, our results show a close relationship among price dynamics of the three economies and call for a reconsideration of the exchange rate anchor in the Greater China Region.展开更多
Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonst...Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate that export products with higher productivity, or with larger market share, or of higher quality will experience a less complete passthrough. Using the six-digit harmonized system export data from the CEPII database over the period of 2000 to 2013, the present paper examines how product heterogeneity affects the exchange rate pass-through of Chinese exports. The empirical results show that the most competitive Chinese export products, or those least affected by exchange rate risks, are those of higher quality, with higher technological complexity and at the high end of the international value chain. Therefore, Chinese exporting firms should pay more attention to improving export quality and upgrading technology to better cope with exchange rate risks and to enjoy more bargaining power in the international market.展开更多
文摘The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.
基金support from the National Social ScienceFund of China(Grant Nos.10zd&034 and 12CJY115)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71373011)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. LY12G03027)
文摘Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.
文摘建立了网红减肥类食品中非法添加匹可硫酸钠检测的超高效液相色谱-串联质谱(UHPLC-MS/MS)方法。样品经甲醇水溶液-盐析辅助体系提取,Oasis PRiME HLB通过式固相萃取柱净化,C_(18)色谱柱分离,流动相为乙腈-乙酸铵,采用梯度洗脱,电喷雾离子源正离子(ESI+)电离模式,多反应监测(MRM)进行扫描,外标法定量。本研究优化了提取体系,实现不同基质样品很好的分散,抗干扰效果好。采用该实验建立的方法,匹可硫酸钠在0.50~250.00 ng/mL范围内线性关系良好,相关系数(r^(2))大于0.998,方法检出限(S/N≥3)为10.00μg/kg,定量限(S/N≥10)为25.00μg/kg。在低(25.00μg/kg)、中(50.00μg/kg)、高(250.00μg/kg)3个浓度水平下平均回收率在81.51%~104.53%之间,相对标准偏差相对标准偏差(RSD)在1.14%~5.64%之间。该方法简便、高效、准确性好、抗干扰能力强,适用于减肥类食品中非法添加匹可硫酸钠的准确定性、定量分析。
文摘During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.
文摘This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate.By estimating the level of exchange rate pass-through and trade volume elasticity,we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries,predicted by the producer currency pricing(PCP)paradigm.We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries.The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes,reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination,whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China s important position in global value chains.
文摘The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.
文摘The minimum wage policy should take into account production costs of enterprises and welfare benefits of families.This paper describes the pass-through process of the minimum wage costs in the enterprise sector and the household sector by building a theoretical model,investigates the impact of the minimum wage adjustment on urban household consumption utility and its price pass-through mechanism from the perspective of living costs based on several sets of databases,such as household survey,supermarket prices and industrial enterprises for the first time,and further estimates the net welfare changes including income compensation and consumption utility loss.The findings of the study are as below:(1)The price transfer behavior of enterprises is the main cause of the loss of household consumption utility.The average wage level and labor costs of enterprises rise with the increase of minimum wages.Both the cost-price pass-through elasticity estimated based on the theoretical model and the minimum wage price elasticity coefficient obtained by empirical estimation show that the price transfer behavior of enterprises leads to the rise of final consumer prices;(2)With a 10% increase in minimum wages,the overall household living costs increase by 2.47%-6.76%,and the economic living costs increase by about 122-334 yuan per quarter,among which the living costs are most affected in terms of food,shoes and clothing;(3)Under the combined effect of income compensation and consumption utility loss,the bottom 20% of households and middle 60% of households will get 658 yuan and 469-556 yuan per quarter,respectively.The findings of this paper are conducive to improving the supporting minimum wage policy by taking a number of measures simultaneously,so as to provide a path reference for promoting the realization of Chinese modernization and expanding domestic demand for common prosperity for all.
文摘We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.
文摘The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post-reform period, after 2005, allowing greater ftexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass-through. Evidence reveals that China＇s share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass-through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China＇s exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.
文摘This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based on data from July 1997 to December 2012 reveal that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between inflation in Chinese Mainland and inflation in both Hong Kong and Macao, the two Special Administrative Regions of China. The degree of inflation pass-through is higher for Macao than for Hong Kong. Moreover, we find no evidence of asymmetries in either Hong Kong and Macao＇s adjustment speeds towards long-run equilibrium or in the short-run pass-through of accelerating or decelerating inflation in the Mainland. Collectively, our results show a close relationship among price dynamics of the three economies and call for a reconsideration of the exchange rate anchor in the Greater China Region.
文摘Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate that export products with higher productivity, or with larger market share, or of higher quality will experience a less complete passthrough. Using the six-digit harmonized system export data from the CEPII database over the period of 2000 to 2013, the present paper examines how product heterogeneity affects the exchange rate pass-through of Chinese exports. The empirical results show that the most competitive Chinese export products, or those least affected by exchange rate risks, are those of higher quality, with higher technological complexity and at the high end of the international value chain. Therefore, Chinese exporting firms should pay more attention to improving export quality and upgrading technology to better cope with exchange rate risks and to enjoy more bargaining power in the international market.
