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DECISION MAKING - THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY AND NETWORK PROCESSES (AHP/ANP) 被引量:258
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作者 Thomas L.SAATY 《Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 CSCD 2004年第1期1-35,共35页
This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and ... This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives as in the AHP and also with dependence and feedback in the entire decision structure as in the ANP. This part explains the Analytic Hierarchy Process, with examples, and presents in some detail the mathematical foundations. An exposition of the Analytic Network Process and its applications will appear in later issues of this journal. 展开更多
关键词 decision making Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Analytic Network Process (ANP)
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基于三层BP网络的多指标综合评估方法及应用 被引量:126
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作者 戴文战 《系统工程理论与实践》 EI CSCD 北大核心 1999年第5期29-34,40,共7页
提出一种基于人工神经网络的综合指标评估方法.文章首先提出了一种新的归一化效用函数,把不同类型,不同量纲的原始评估值转换到[-1,1]区间,该效用函数较好地体现了“奖优罚劣”原则,同时对于神经网络又更容易学习和训练;其... 提出一种基于人工神经网络的综合指标评估方法.文章首先提出了一种新的归一化效用函数,把不同类型,不同量纲的原始评估值转换到[-1,1]区间,该效用函数较好地体现了“奖优罚劣”原则,同时对于神经网络又更容易学习和训练;其次,分析了一般多指标评估中各权值的确定方法及存在的困难;第三,详细介绍了基于人工神经网络的多指标综合评价原理及实现方法,并将之实际应用到一柴油机行业的综合经济效益评估中,取得了较满意的结果. 展开更多
关键词 人工神经网络 多指标符合评价 项目评价
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OWA算子赋权新方法 被引量:89
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作者 王煜 徐泽水 《数学的实践与认识》 CSCD 北大核心 2008年第3期51-61,共11页
对于如何对决策数据给出合理的权重,介绍基于OWA算子理论的两种赋权的方法.提出两种赋权的方法.由于组合数和整数联系相关的,提出一种新颖的基于组合数给出OWA算子权重的方法;由于正态分布的良好性质,从已知的OWA算子赋权方法出发,提出... 对于如何对决策数据给出合理的权重,介绍基于OWA算子理论的两种赋权的方法.提出两种赋权的方法.由于组合数和整数联系相关的,提出一种新颖的基于组合数给出OWA算子权重的方法;由于正态分布的良好性质,从已知的OWA算子赋权方法出发,提出一种与决策数据关联紧密的赋权的方法,也给出这两种方法的简单分析.最后通过算例对该法进行说明和分析. 展开更多
关键词 决策 决策数据 权重 组合数 正态分布
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Survey of the research on dynamic weapon-target assignment problem 被引量:48
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作者 Cai Huaiping Liu Jingxu Chen Yingwu Wang Hao 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2006年第3期559-565,共7页
The basic concepts and models of weapon-target assignment (WTA) are introduced and the mathematical nature of the WTA models is also analyzed. A systematic survey of research on WTA problem is provided. The present ... The basic concepts and models of weapon-target assignment (WTA) are introduced and the mathematical nature of the WTA models is also analyzed. A systematic survey of research on WTA problem is provided. The present research on WTA is focused on models and algorithms. In the research on models of WTA, the static WTA models are mainly studied and the dynamic WTA models are not fully studied in deed. In the research on algorithms of WTA, the intelligent algorithms are often used to solve the WTA problem. The small scale of static WTA problems has been solved very well, however, the large scale of dynamic WTA problems has not been solved effectively so far. Finally, the characteristics of dynamic WTA are analyzed and directions for the future research on dynamic WTA are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 military operational research dynamic weapon-target assignment SURVEY firepower assignment decision making combination optimization.
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基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警 被引量:39
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作者 雷勋平 吴杨 +2 位作者 叶松 陈兆荣 王亮 《农业工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2012年第6期233-239,共7页
定量评价区域粮食安全及客观的预警指标权重选取对于区域粮食安全至关重要。该文考虑影响粮食供给和需求等因素构建区域粮食安全预警指标体系,结合熵权和可拓学理论,建立基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警模型,并对安徽省近11a(20... 定量评价区域粮食安全及客观的预警指标权重选取对于区域粮食安全至关重要。该文考虑影响粮食供给和需求等因素构建区域粮食安全预警指标体系,结合熵权和可拓学理论,建立基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警模型,并对安徽省近11a(2000-2010年)的粮食安全进行预警分析。研究结果表明:安徽省粮食安全状况可以分为3个阶段,分别是重警阶段(2000-2004年)、中警阶段(2005-2006年)和安全阶段(2007-2010年);粮食安全预警安全度变化与单项预警指标值波动基本一致,综合安全度逐渐提高。该文建立的粮食安全预警模型能够提高区域粮食安全预警能力、定量评价粮食安全状态并有效预警,为实施粮食安全过程监管提供了新思路和方法。 展开更多
关键词 粮食 决策 模型 熵权 可拓决策 粮食安全预警 安全度
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基于数据的决策方法综述 被引量:30
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作者 王红卫 祁超 +2 位作者 魏永长 李彬 朱松 《自动化学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2009年第6期820-833,共14页
现代的决策问题与传统环境相比具有两个特点,首先是系统自动化水平的提高带来的大量原始数据,另外则是由于现实决策问题的复杂性和不确定性导致的机理模型无法准确建立.面对这样的特点,传统的基于机理模型的决策方法无法得到有效应用,于... 现代的决策问题与传统环境相比具有两个特点,首先是系统自动化水平的提高带来的大量原始数据,另外则是由于现实决策问题的复杂性和不确定性导致的机理模型无法准确建立.面对这样的特点,传统的基于机理模型的决策方法无法得到有效应用,于是,大量的研究工作围绕基于数据的决策方法展开.本文根据决策问题的性质从三个方面综述了当前被普遍关注和应用的基于数据的决策方法:分类方法、决策分析方法和优化方法,针对各种具体方法,总结了该方法的特征、发展过程以及前景. 展开更多
关键词 基于数据 决策 分类 决策分析 优化
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时间压力下的决策策略和决策理论 被引量:24
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作者 刘金平 李红锋 《河南大学学报(社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第6期73-78,共6页
时间压力是指在时间限制下个体的一种心理状态或情绪体验,是对时间限制的一种应激反应。时间压力下的决策策略有基于决策结果和基于决策过程两种分类。基于决策过程的决策策略包括:加速策略、选择性策略、补偿性策略或非补偿性策略、以... 时间压力是指在时间限制下个体的一种心理状态或情绪体验,是对时间限制的一种应激反应。时间压力下的决策策略有基于决策结果和基于决策过程两种分类。基于决策过程的决策策略包括:加速策略、选择性策略、补偿性策略或非补偿性策略、以选项为主策略或以属性为主策略。时间压力下的决策理论有:成本/收益理论、构像理论、差异化统合理论、努力/准确性交换理论。 展开更多
关键词 决策 时间压力 决策策略 决策理论
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“知识论”基础研究 被引量:17
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作者 钟义信 《电子学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2001年第1期96-102,共7页
知识是人类所创造的宝贵财富 ,但至今没有形成系统的知识理论 .本文旨在提出和建立知识论的必要基础 ,给出知识的概念、定义、表示、度量、推理和决策规则 .知识论的建立将为信息论 知识论 智能论的统一理论奠定坚实的基础 ,促进人们... 知识是人类所创造的宝贵财富 ,但至今没有形成系统的知识理论 .本文旨在提出和建立知识论的必要基础 ,给出知识的概念、定义、表示、度量、推理和决策规则 .知识论的建立将为信息论 知识论 智能论的统一理论奠定坚实的基础 ,促进人们在更高的水平上利用信息和知识 ,研究、设计和应用各种智能机器 . 展开更多
关键词 推理 知识论 信息论 智能论
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Scoring system for prediction of metastatic spine tumor prognosis 被引量:20
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作者 Yasuaki Tokuhashi Hiroshi Uei +1 位作者 Masashi Oshima Yasumitsu Ajiro 《World Journal of Orthopedics》 2014年第3期262-271,共10页
Assessing the prognosis before treatment for metastatic spine tumor is extremely important in therapy selection.Therefore,we review some prognostic scoring systems and their outcomes.Articles with combinations of two ... Assessing the prognosis before treatment for metastatic spine tumor is extremely important in therapy selection.Therefore,we review some prognostic scoring systems and their outcomes.Articles with combinations of two keywords among"metastatic spine tumor"and"prognosis","score","scoring system","predicting",or"life expectancy"were searched for in Pub Med.As a result,236 articles were extracted.Those referring to representative scoring systems about predicting the survival of patients with metastatic spine tumors were used.The significance and limits of these scoring systems,and the future perspectives were described.Tokuhashi score,Tomita score,Baur score,Linden score,Rades score,and Katagiri score were introduced.They are all scoring systems prepared by combining factors that affect prognosis.The primary site of cancer and visceral metastasis were common factors in all of these scoring systems.Other factors selected to influence the prognosis varied.They were useful to roughly predict thesurvival period,such as,"more than one year or not"or"more than six months or not".In particular,they were utilized for decision-making about operative indications and avoidance of excessive medical treatment.Because the function depended on the survival period in the patients with metastatic spine tumor,it was also utilized in assessing functional prognosis.However,no scoring system had more than 90%consistency between the predicted and actual survival periods.Future perspectives should adopt more oncological viewpoints with adjustment of the process of treatment for metastatic spine tumor. 展开更多
关键词 METASTATIC SPINE tumor PROGNOSIS evaluation system Surgical INDICATION Treatment MODALITY decision-making
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Evolutionary decision-makings for the dynamic weapon-target assignment problem 被引量:20
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作者 CHEN Jie1,2, XIN Bin1,2, PENG ZhiHong1,2, DOU LiHua1,2 & ZHANG Juan1,2 1 School of Automation, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China 2 Key Laboratory of Complex System Intelligent Control and Decision, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100081, China 《Science in China(Series F)》 2009年第11期2006-2018,共13页
The dynamic weapon-target assignment (DWTA) problem is an important issue in the field of military command and control. An asset-based DWTA optimization model was proposed with four kinds of constraints considered, ... The dynamic weapon-target assignment (DWTA) problem is an important issue in the field of military command and control. An asset-based DWTA optimization model was proposed with four kinds of constraints considered, including capability constraints, strategy constraints, resource constraints and engagement feasibility constraints. A general "virtual" representation of decisions was presented to facilitate the generation of feasible decisions. The representation is in essence the permutation of all assignment pairs. A construction procedure converts the permutations into real feasible decisions. In order to solve this problem, three evolutionary decision-making algorithms, including a genetic algorithm and two memetic algorithms, were developed. Experimental results show that the memetic algorithm based on greedy local search can generate obviously better DWTA decisions, especially for large-scale problems, than the genetic algorithm and the memetic algorithm based on steepest local search. 展开更多
关键词 decision-making dynamic weapon-target assignment (DWTA) military command and control evolutionary computation memetic algorithms constraints handling
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基于故障投诉电话信息的配电网故障定位粗糙集方法 被引量:14
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作者 束洪春 孙向飞 司大军 《电网技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2004年第1期64-66,70,共4页
运用粗糙集理论研究并提出了利用故障投诉电话信息实现配电网故障定位的新方法。该方法首先根据配电网拓扑结构的特点,将配电网络描述为树状结构,以便自动形成基于故障投诉电话的故障定位决策表,然后利用粗糙集方法对决策表进行化简,导... 运用粗糙集理论研究并提出了利用故障投诉电话信息实现配电网故障定位的新方法。该方法首先根据配电网拓扑结构的特点,将配电网络描述为树状结构,以便自动形成基于故障投诉电话的故障定位决策表,然后利用粗糙集方法对决策表进行化简,导出故障定位规则的最小约简形式,揭示故障投诉电话信息内在的冗余性。该方法既不 需要进行繁琐的计算,大大缩短了对故障的定位和隔离时间,又保证了规则的客观性,而且在故障投诉电话信息不完备的情况下,仍能达到快速、准确故障定位的目的,具有良好的容错性能。大量仿真算例表明,该方法简单、可行、有效。 展开更多
关键词 配电网 故障定位 粗糙集理论 拓扑结构 决策表 SCADA 故障信息 投诉电话
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通过医患沟通引导病人就医行为:美国的做法 被引量:16
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作者 张岩 魏来临 +1 位作者 晋运玲 高蕾 《医学与哲学》 北大核心 2005年第12S期61-62,共2页
病人对病情的理解和对医疗信息的记忆能力是医生影响病人就医的基础。耐心的积极教育是病人自愿同意推荐诊疗计划的必须。在协商时尊重病人和知晓病人的期盼对医生如何影响病人的就医行为是很有帮助的。
关键词 医患沟通 决策 教育 知情同意 协商
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DEA在企业效率评价中的应用研究 被引量:8
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作者 孙建 《地质技术经济管理》 2003年第5期61-63,78,共4页
本文在介绍DEA中C2R模型的基础上,分析了模型参数的经济含义,并就其在企业投入产出相对有效性评价中的应用作了实证,以期为管理者提供借鉴。
关键词 DEA 数据包络分析 决策 企业 投入产出 相对有效性评价 效率评价
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认知决策与篮球运动训练 被引量:14
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作者 董伦红 周威 《广州体育学院学报》 北大核心 2001年第3期42-45,共4页
本文根据现代认知心理学关于认知与决策理论研究成果 ,分析篮球运动中认知决策的特点、影响因素 ,提出其表征模式及训练中的建议 ,从而为教练员科学心理训练提供理论参考。
关键词 认知 决策 篮球训练
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区间层次分析法(IAHP)在财务决策中的应用 被引量:14
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作者 岳方彤 《山东轻工业学院学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2006年第4期91-95,共5页
影响财务决策的因素繁多,不同因素对企业财务决策的影响不容易确定,采用传统的层次分析法对某些因子的影响权重进行确定时难度较大。本文采用区间层次分析法来解决这一问题。研究表明,区间层次分析法是解决企业财务决策中多目标复杂问... 影响财务决策的因素繁多,不同因素对企业财务决策的影响不容易确定,采用传统的层次分析法对某些因子的影响权重进行确定时难度较大。本文采用区间层次分析法来解决这一问题。研究表明,区间层次分析法是解决企业财务决策中多目标复杂问题的定性与定量相结合一种很好的决策分析方法。 展开更多
关键词 区间层次分析法 财务 决策
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Evaluation of a simulation-based workshop on clinical performance for emergency physicians and nurses 被引量:14
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作者 Chi Ho Chan Tung Ning Chan +1 位作者 Man Cheuk Yuen Wai Kit Tung 《World Journal of Emergency Medicine》 CAS 2015年第1期16-22,共7页
BACKGROUND: Simulation-based medical education has been growing rapidly and becomes one of the most popular teaching methods for improving patient safety and patient care. The Simulation Subcommittee of the Hong Kong ... BACKGROUND: Simulation-based medical education has been growing rapidly and becomes one of the most popular teaching methods for improving patient safety and patient care. The Simulation Subcommittee of the Hong Kong College of Emergency Medicine organized an educational program emphasizing the team training, clinical decision-making and communication skills. This study aimed to evaluate the attitude of the participants toward a new training program and the change in the knowledge on clinical performance in emergency physicians and nurses after attending the educational program.METHODS: A course evaluation form was filled in by the participants at the end of the workshop. An assessment of 20 multiple-choice questions with 5 options was administered to the participants before and after the 2-day simulation-based training workshop.RESULTS: A total of 72 doctors and nurses working in the Accident and Emergency Department were enrolled. The average pretest and posttest scores were 12 and 14.3 respectively. The percentage improvement in the mean score of the pretest and posttest was 11.5%. The Chi-square test showed signifi cant improvement in the pretest and posttest score grading(P=0.00). Paired t-test revealed signifi cant difference between the mean scores of the pretest and posttest(P=0.00).CONCLUSIONS: Participants had positive attitude toward this new training program. Significant improvement of the knowledge on clinical performance in healthcare professionals in the Accident and Emergency Department was observed after the participation in this simulation-based educational program. 展开更多
关键词 EDUCATION MEDICAL decision making Patient care team
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Stochastic optimization of cost-risk for integrated energy system considering wind and solar power correlated 被引量:12
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作者 Jiehui ZHENG Yanni KOU +1 位作者 Mengshi LI Qinghua WU 《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第6期1472-1483,共12页
Due to the growing penetration of renewable energies(REs)in integrated energy system(IES),it is imperative to assess and reduce the negative impacts caused by the uncertain REs.In this paper,an unscented transformatio... Due to the growing penetration of renewable energies(REs)in integrated energy system(IES),it is imperative to assess and reduce the negative impacts caused by the uncertain REs.In this paper,an unscented transformation-based mean-standard(UT-MS)deviation model is proposed for the stochastic optimization of cost-risk for IES operation considering wind and solar power correlated.The unscented transformation(UT)sampling method is adopted to characterize the uncertainties of wind and solar power considering the correlated relationship between them.Based on the UT,a mean-standard(MS)deviation model is formulated to depict the trade-off between the cost and risk of stochastic optimization for the IES optimal operation problem.Then the UT-MS model is tackled by a multi-objective group search optimizer with adaptive covariance and Levy flights embedded with a multiple constraints handling technique(MGSO-ACL-CHT)to ensure the feasibility of Peratooptimal solutions.Furthermore,a decision-making method,improved entropy weight(IEW),is developed to select a final operation point from the set of Perato-optimal solutions.In order to verify the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed UT-MS model in dealing with the uncertainties of correlative wind and solar power,simulation studies are conducted on a test IES.Simulation results show that the UT-MS model is capable of handling the uncertainties of correlative wind and solar power within much less samples and less computational burden.Moreover,the MGSOACL-CHT and IEW are also demonstrated to be effective in solving the multi-objective UT-MS model of the IES optimal operation problem. 展开更多
关键词 Integrated energy system RENEWABLE ENERGIES Unscented transformation Mean-standard deviation MULTI-OBJECTIVE optimization decision making
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ON INTEGRATION AND ADAPTATION IN COMPLEX SERVICE SYSTEMS 被引量:10
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作者 James M.TIEN 《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第4期385-415,共31页
The services sector employs a large and growing proportion of workers in the industrialized nations, and it is increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. While the interdependences, similari... The services sector employs a large and growing proportion of workers in the industrialized nations, and it is increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. While the interdependences, similarities and complementarities of manufacturing and services are significant, there are considerable differences between goods and services, including the shift in focus from mass production to mass customization (whereby a service is produced and delivered in response to a customer's stated or imputed needs). In general, services can be considered to be knowledge-intensive agents or components which work together as providers and consumers to create or co-produce value. Like manufacturing systems, an efficient service system must be an integrated system of systems, leading to greater connectivity and interdependence. Integration must occur over the physical, temporal, organizational and functional dimensions, and must include methods concerned with the component, the management, and the system. Moreover, an effective service system must also be an adaptable system, leading to greater value and responsiveness. Adaptation must occur over the dimensions of monitoring, feedback, cybernetics and learning, and must include methods concerned with space, time, and system. In sum, service systems are indeed complex, especially due to the uncertainties associated with the human-centered aspects of such systems. Moreover, the system complexities can only be dealt with methods that enhance system integration and adaptation. The paper concludes with several insights, including a plea to shift the current misplaced focus on developing a science or discipline for services to further developing a systems engineering approach to services, an approach based on the integration and adaptation of a host of sciences or disciplines (e.g., physics, mathematics, statistics, psychology, sociology, etc.). In fact, what is required is a services-related transdisciplinary - beyond a single disciplinary - ontology or taxon 展开更多
关键词 SERVICES service system system components system integration system adaptation system of systems decision informatics real-time decision making
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Optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling for survey of China's land with remotely sensed data 被引量:10
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作者 LI Lianfa WANG Jinfeng LIU Jiyuan 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2005年第6期752-764,共13页
In the remote sensing survey of the country land, cost and accuracy are a pair of conflicts, for which spatial sampling is a preferable solution with the aim of an optimal balance between economic input and accuracy o... In the remote sensing survey of the country land, cost and accuracy are a pair of conflicts, for which spatial sampling is a preferable solution with the aim of an optimal balance between economic input and accuracy of results, or in other words, acquirement of higher ac-curacy at less cost. Counter to drawbacks of previous application models, e.g. lack of compre-hensive and quantitative-comparison, the optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling is proposed. This model first acquires the possible accuracy-cost diagrams of multiple schemes through initial spatial exploration, then regresses them and standardizes them into a unified ref-erence frame, and finally produces the relatively optimal sampling scheme by using the discrete decision-making function (built by this paper) and comparing them in combination with the dia-grams. According to the test result in the survey of the arable land using remotely sensed data, the Sandwich model, while applied in the survey of the thin-feature and cultivated land areas with aerial photos, can better realize the goal of the best balance between investment and accuracy. With this case and other cases, it is shown that the optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling is a good choice in the survey of the farm areas using remote sensing, with its distin-guished benefit of higher precision at less cost or vice versa. In order to extensively apply the model in the surveys of natural resources, including arable farm areas, this paper proposes the prototype of development using the component technology, that could considerably improve the analysis efficiency by insetting program components within the software environment of GIS and RS. 展开更多
关键词 survey of countrywide land with RS data spatial sampling optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling.
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决策科学的发展和展望 被引量:5
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作者 杨继平 邱菀华 《北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版)》 2000年第4期61-64,共4页
本文回顾了决策科学发展的历史,介绍了决策科学现在发展的状况,对现在决策科学的几个研究方向做了介绍,并对决策科学的未来发展做了展望。
关键词 决策 决策分析 决策科学 规范性决策模型 风险型管理决策
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