借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Ana...借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Analysis Tool)建立了气候-陆面单向连接系统。将未来气候情景(日降水量、最高和最低气温情景),输入到SWAT模型模拟径流,重点预测评估黄河源区未来不同时期的径流变化情况,并分析讨论气候变化情景下径流深的空间分布及响应。其结果表明,SWAT模型可以较好地模拟黄河源区的流量过程,未来气候变化对黄河源区径流量变化影响很大,而且不同的降尺度情景对模拟结果会产生不同的影响。统计降尺度(SDS)情景模拟表明,黄河源区未来径流量的减少趋势不可避免,未来3个时期(2020s、2050s和2080s)将分别减少88.61m3/(s24.15%)、116.64m3/(s31.79%)和151.62m3/(s41.33%),而Delta情景下研究区年平均流量变化相对较小,与基准期相比未来2020s和2050s分别减少63.69m3/s(17.36%)和1.73m3/s(0.47%),而2080s将增加46.93m3/(s12.79%)。展开更多
Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time an...Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climate modeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a more substantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regional climate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the world and the outlook of regional climate modeling.展开更多
Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be...Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.展开更多
Investigations on the short-term climate predictions by general circulation models(GCMs)in China have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The research shows that GCMs have the capability to predict the seasonal...Investigations on the short-term climate predictions by general circulation models(GCMs)in China have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The research shows that GCMs have the capability to predict the seasonal and annual characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the patterns of temperature and precipitation over China.It is inspiring to notice that the GCMs have the ability to predict the summer rainfall over China before two seasons.Several issues for the short-term climate prediction by the GCMs have been discussed in this paper.展开更多
Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approa...Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.展开更多
文摘借助大气环流模式(GCMs)进行区域气候影响评价往往受气候模式的分辨率限制,缺少对应尺度的气候情景,目前一般的做法是通过降尺度方法弥补GCMs气候情景的不足。本文集成GCMs输出数据、降尺度模型和分布式水文模型SWAT(Soil and Water Analysis Tool)建立了气候-陆面单向连接系统。将未来气候情景(日降水量、最高和最低气温情景),输入到SWAT模型模拟径流,重点预测评估黄河源区未来不同时期的径流变化情况,并分析讨论气候变化情景下径流深的空间分布及响应。其结果表明,SWAT模型可以较好地模拟黄河源区的流量过程,未来气候变化对黄河源区径流量变化影响很大,而且不同的降尺度情景对模拟结果会产生不同的影响。统计降尺度(SDS)情景模拟表明,黄河源区未来径流量的减少趋势不可避免,未来3个时期(2020s、2050s和2080s)将分别减少88.61m3/(s24.15%)、116.64m3/(s31.79%)和151.62m3/(s41.33%),而Delta情景下研究区年平均流量变化相对较小,与基准期相比未来2020s和2050s分别减少63.69m3/s(17.36%)和1.73m3/s(0.47%),而2080s将增加46.93m3/(s12.79%)。
文摘Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy and society development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climate anomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climate modeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a more substantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regional climate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the world and the outlook of regional climate modeling.
基金National Key Project 96-908-02 and KZ981-B1-108 of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.
基金This paper was jointly supported by the National Key Project 96-908-02 and KZ981-B1-108 of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Investigations on the short-term climate predictions by general circulation models(GCMs)in China have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The research shows that GCMs have the capability to predict the seasonal and annual characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the patterns of temperature and precipitation over China.It is inspiring to notice that the GCMs have the ability to predict the summer rainfall over China before two seasons.Several issues for the short-term climate prediction by the GCMs have been discussed in this paper.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40971026)Key State Lab of Urban Water Resource and Environment,China(No.ES201109)+1 种基金National Science and Technology Infrastructure Program,China(No.2012BAC19B05-4)Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province,China(No.20130101085JC)
文摘Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.
