针对随机不确定性可能带来翼吊式飞机严重气动性能波动的问题,提出了一种基于主动学习加点策略的Gauss过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)代理模型方法用于不确定性分析,该主动学习加点策略能够有效地降低模型不确定性,提高不...针对随机不确定性可能带来翼吊式飞机严重气动性能波动的问题,提出了一种基于主动学习加点策略的Gauss过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)代理模型方法用于不确定性分析,该主动学习加点策略能够有效地降低模型不确定性,提高不确定预测的精度。关注来流不确定性输入,分别使用Smolyak稀疏网格多项式混沌展开(polynomial chaos expansion,PCE)方法和基于主动学习加点策略的GPR代理模型方法,结合Sobol灵敏度分析对翼-身-短舱-挂架几何进行了不确定性分析。结果表明,在跨声速条件下,攻角和Mach数的不确定性会引起翼吊式飞机升力系数和阻力系数的剧烈波动,其中升力系数的波动同时受攻角和Mach数的影响,阻力系数的波动主要由Mach数决定。展开更多
针对高升阻比风力机翼型前缘曲率半径较大的问题,传统的翼型参数化方法前缘控制能力不足,且基于面元法XFOIL预测精度差的问题,利用增强类函数/形函数转换(CST)参数化方法控制翼型的形状变化、拉丁超立方实验设计、计算流体力学(CFD)流...针对高升阻比风力机翼型前缘曲率半径较大的问题,传统的翼型参数化方法前缘控制能力不足,且基于面元法XFOIL预测精度差的问题,利用增强类函数/形函数转换(CST)参数化方法控制翼型的形状变化、拉丁超立方实验设计、计算流体力学(CFD)流场计算模块、高斯过程回归模型和遗传算法,提出了基于高可信度Reynolds average Navier-Stocks(RANS)和高斯回归模型辅助遗传算法的翼型优化设计方法。结果表明:基于高斯回归模型的翼型优化方法,可以将优化所用CFD计算次数降低一阶,从而大幅度提升优化设计效率。由标准算例超临界翼型RAE2822的降阻设计表明,在百次量级的CFD次数阻力降低43.16%,激波被削弱且升力、力矩和面积严格满足约束。由风力机翼型NACA64618的最大化升阻比优化设计表明,所设计翼型不仅在设计攻角和副设计攻角处升阻比大大增加,在整个小攻角范围内其气动性能都得到了提升,且两个主设计点,无不良阻力的产生。展开更多
Interval state estimation(ISE)can estimate state intervals of power systems according to confidence intervals of predicted pseudo-measurements,thereby analyzing the impact of uncertain pseudo-measurements on states.Ho...Interval state estimation(ISE)can estimate state intervals of power systems according to confidence intervals of predicted pseudo-measurements,thereby analyzing the impact of uncertain pseudo-measurements on states.However,predicted pseudo-measurements have prediction errors,and their confidence intervals do not necessarily contain the truth values,leading to estimation biases of the ISE.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a pseudo-measurement interval prediction framework based on the Gaussian process regression(GPR)model,thereby improving the prediction accuracy of pseudo-measurement confidence intervals.Besides,a weight assignment strategy for improving the robustness of weighted least squares(WLS)ISE is proposed.This strategy quantifies the deviation between the pseudo-measurement intervals and their estimated intervals and assigns smaller weights to the pseudo-measurement intervals with larger deviations,thereby improving the estimation accuracy and robustness of the ISE.This paper adopts the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system of the New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).It verifies the advantages of the GPR method for pseudo-measurement interval prediction by comparing it with the quantile regression and neural network methods.In addition,this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed weight assignment strategy through the IEEE 14-bus case.Finally,the differences in the estimation accuracy and the bad data identification between the robust interval state estimation and deterministic state estimation are discussed.展开更多
针对光伏功率预测中特征因素太多、关键特征与功率间映射关系难以有效挖掘和预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于随机森林RF(random forest)算法特征选择和灰狼优化算法GWO(grey wolf optimizer)优化高斯过程回归GPR(Gaussian process regr...针对光伏功率预测中特征因素太多、关键特征与功率间映射关系难以有效挖掘和预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于随机森林RF(random forest)算法特征选择和灰狼优化算法GWO(grey wolf optimizer)优化高斯过程回归GPR(Gaussian process regression)模型相结合的组合预测模型。首先,采用皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关系数对特征进行相关性分析,并进行初步筛选;接着,基于随机森林算法对特征进行重要性评价,并选取最优特征子集;然后,采用灰狼优化算法对高斯过程回归模型进行优化;最后,将最优特征子集输入到组合预测模型RFGWO-GPR中进行短期光伏功率预测。应用某光伏电站实测数据的仿真实验结果表明,提出的模型在不同天气条件下可以对特征进行有效选择,与未进行特征选择的单一模型相比,预测精度显著提高,并且明显优于其他优化算法与GPR模型组成的组合预测模型。展开更多
The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regressi...The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.展开更多
高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)是一种基于高斯过程的非参数化贝叶斯回归方法,其可以灵活适应不同类型数据,用于建模和预测数据之间的复杂关系,具有拟合能力强、泛化能力好等特点。针对海量用户场景下用户量实时预测问...高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)是一种基于高斯过程的非参数化贝叶斯回归方法,其可以灵活适应不同类型数据,用于建模和预测数据之间的复杂关系,具有拟合能力强、泛化能力好等特点。针对海量用户场景下用户量实时预测问题,提出一种基于GPR的用户量预测优化方法。在滑动窗口方法处理数据的基础上,选择合适的核函数,基于k折交叉验证得到最佳超参数组合以实现GPR模型训练,完成在线用户量的实时预测并进行性能评估。实验结果表明,相比于采用训练集中输出数据方差的50%作为信号噪声估计量的传统方案,所提方法具有较高的预测准确度,并且在测试集均方根误差(root mean square,RMS)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)、平均偏差(mean bias error,MBE)和决定系数R 2这4个评估指标方面均有提升,其中MBE至少提升了43.3%。展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)are widely used in transportation,energy storage,and other fields.The prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium batteries not only provides a reference for health management but...Lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)are widely used in transportation,energy storage,and other fields.The prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium batteries not only provides a reference for health management but also serves as a basis for assessing the residual value of the battery.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the RUL of LIBs,a two-phase RUL early prediction method combining neural network and Gaussian process regression(GPR)is proposed.In the initial phase,the features related to the capacity degradation of LIBs are utilized to train the neural network model,which is used to predict the initial cycle lifetime of 124 LIBs.The Pearson coefficient’s two most significant characteristic factors and the predicted normalized lifetime form a 3D space.The Euclidean distance between the test dataset and each cell in the training dataset and validation dataset is calculated,and the shortest distance is considered to have a similar degradation pattern,which is used to determine the initial Dual Exponential Model(DEM).In the second phase,GPR uses the DEM as the initial parameter to predict each test set’s early RUL(ERUL).By testing four batteries under different working conditions,the RMSE of all capacity estimation is less than 1.2%,and the accuracy percentage(AP)of remaining life prediction is more than 98%.Experiments show that the method does not need human intervention and has high prediction accuracy.展开更多
In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximi...In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing revenues.Hence,it is necessary for a power generation company to develop an accurate electricity price forecasting algorithm.Given this background,this paper proposes a two-step day-ahead electricity price forecasting algorithm based on the weighted Knearest neighborhood(WKNN)method and the Gaussian process regression(GPR)approach.In the first step,several predictors,i.e.,operation indicators,are presented and the WKNN method is employed to detect the day-ahead price spike based on these indicators.In the second step,the outputs of the first step are regarded as a new predictor,and it is utilized together with the operation indicators to accurately forecast the electricity price based on the GPR approach.The proposed algorithm is verified by actual market data in Pennsylvania-New JerseyMaryland Interconnection(PJM),and comparisons between this algorithm and existing ones are also made to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can attain accurate price forecasting results even with several price spikes in historical electricity price data.展开更多
文摘针对随机不确定性可能带来翼吊式飞机严重气动性能波动的问题,提出了一种基于主动学习加点策略的Gauss过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)代理模型方法用于不确定性分析,该主动学习加点策略能够有效地降低模型不确定性,提高不确定预测的精度。关注来流不确定性输入,分别使用Smolyak稀疏网格多项式混沌展开(polynomial chaos expansion,PCE)方法和基于主动学习加点策略的GPR代理模型方法,结合Sobol灵敏度分析对翼-身-短舱-挂架几何进行了不确定性分析。结果表明,在跨声速条件下,攻角和Mach数的不确定性会引起翼吊式飞机升力系数和阻力系数的剧烈波动,其中升力系数的波动同时受攻角和Mach数的影响,阻力系数的波动主要由Mach数决定。
文摘针对高升阻比风力机翼型前缘曲率半径较大的问题,传统的翼型参数化方法前缘控制能力不足,且基于面元法XFOIL预测精度差的问题,利用增强类函数/形函数转换(CST)参数化方法控制翼型的形状变化、拉丁超立方实验设计、计算流体力学(CFD)流场计算模块、高斯过程回归模型和遗传算法,提出了基于高可信度Reynolds average Navier-Stocks(RANS)和高斯回归模型辅助遗传算法的翼型优化设计方法。结果表明:基于高斯回归模型的翼型优化方法,可以将优化所用CFD计算次数降低一阶,从而大幅度提升优化设计效率。由标准算例超临界翼型RAE2822的降阻设计表明,在百次量级的CFD次数阻力降低43.16%,激波被削弱且升力、力矩和面积严格满足约束。由风力机翼型NACA64618的最大化升阻比优化设计表明,所设计翼型不仅在设计攻角和副设计攻角处升阻比大大增加,在整个小攻角范围内其气动性能都得到了提升,且两个主设计点,无不良阻力的产生。
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51677012).
文摘Interval state estimation(ISE)can estimate state intervals of power systems according to confidence intervals of predicted pseudo-measurements,thereby analyzing the impact of uncertain pseudo-measurements on states.However,predicted pseudo-measurements have prediction errors,and their confidence intervals do not necessarily contain the truth values,leading to estimation biases of the ISE.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a pseudo-measurement interval prediction framework based on the Gaussian process regression(GPR)model,thereby improving the prediction accuracy of pseudo-measurement confidence intervals.Besides,a weight assignment strategy for improving the robustness of weighted least squares(WLS)ISE is proposed.This strategy quantifies the deviation between the pseudo-measurement intervals and their estimated intervals and assigns smaller weights to the pseudo-measurement intervals with larger deviations,thereby improving the estimation accuracy and robustness of the ISE.This paper adopts the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system of the New York Independent System Operator(NYISO).It verifies the advantages of the GPR method for pseudo-measurement interval prediction by comparing it with the quantile regression and neural network methods.In addition,this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed weight assignment strategy through the IEEE 14-bus case.Finally,the differences in the estimation accuracy and the bad data identification between the robust interval state estimation and deterministic state estimation are discussed.
文摘针对光伏功率预测中特征因素太多、关键特征与功率间映射关系难以有效挖掘和预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于随机森林RF(random forest)算法特征选择和灰狼优化算法GWO(grey wolf optimizer)优化高斯过程回归GPR(Gaussian process regression)模型相结合的组合预测模型。首先,采用皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关系数对特征进行相关性分析,并进行初步筛选;接着,基于随机森林算法对特征进行重要性评价,并选取最优特征子集;然后,采用灰狼优化算法对高斯过程回归模型进行优化;最后,将最优特征子集输入到组合预测模型RFGWO-GPR中进行短期光伏功率预测。应用某光伏电站实测数据的仿真实验结果表明,提出的模型在不同天气条件下可以对特征进行有效选择,与未进行特征选择的单一模型相比,预测精度显著提高,并且明显优于其他优化算法与GPR模型组成的组合预测模型。
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFB1503700)the Hunan Natural Science Foundation-Science and Education Joint Project(2019JJ70063)。
文摘The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.
文摘高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)是一种基于高斯过程的非参数化贝叶斯回归方法,其可以灵活适应不同类型数据,用于建模和预测数据之间的复杂关系,具有拟合能力强、泛化能力好等特点。针对海量用户场景下用户量实时预测问题,提出一种基于GPR的用户量预测优化方法。在滑动窗口方法处理数据的基础上,选择合适的核函数,基于k折交叉验证得到最佳超参数组合以实现GPR模型训练,完成在线用户量的实时预测并进行性能评估。实验结果表明,相比于采用训练集中输出数据方差的50%作为信号噪声估计量的传统方案,所提方法具有较高的预测准确度,并且在测试集均方根误差(root mean square,RMS)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)、平均偏差(mean bias error,MBE)和决定系数R 2这4个评估指标方面均有提升,其中MBE至少提升了43.3%。
基金supported by the Major Science and Technology Projects for Independent Innovation of China FAW Group Co.,Ltd.(Grant Nos.20220301018GX and 20220301019GX).
文摘Lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)are widely used in transportation,energy storage,and other fields.The prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium batteries not only provides a reference for health management but also serves as a basis for assessing the residual value of the battery.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the RUL of LIBs,a two-phase RUL early prediction method combining neural network and Gaussian process regression(GPR)is proposed.In the initial phase,the features related to the capacity degradation of LIBs are utilized to train the neural network model,which is used to predict the initial cycle lifetime of 124 LIBs.The Pearson coefficient’s two most significant characteristic factors and the predicted normalized lifetime form a 3D space.The Euclidean distance between the test dataset and each cell in the training dataset and validation dataset is calculated,and the shortest distance is considered to have a similar degradation pattern,which is used to determine the initial Dual Exponential Model(DEM).In the second phase,GPR uses the DEM as the initial parameter to predict each test set’s early RUL(ERUL).By testing four batteries under different working conditions,the RMSE of all capacity estimation is less than 1.2%,and the accuracy percentage(AP)of remaining life prediction is more than 98%.Experiments show that the method does not need human intervention and has high prediction accuracy.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52077195)Zhejiang University Academic Award for Outstanding Doctoral Candidates (No.202022)。
文摘In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing revenues.Hence,it is necessary for a power generation company to develop an accurate electricity price forecasting algorithm.Given this background,this paper proposes a two-step day-ahead electricity price forecasting algorithm based on the weighted Knearest neighborhood(WKNN)method and the Gaussian process regression(GPR)approach.In the first step,several predictors,i.e.,operation indicators,are presented and the WKNN method is employed to detect the day-ahead price spike based on these indicators.In the second step,the outputs of the first step are regarded as a new predictor,and it is utilized together with the operation indicators to accurately forecast the electricity price based on the GPR approach.The proposed algorithm is verified by actual market data in Pennsylvania-New JerseyMaryland Interconnection(PJM),and comparisons between this algorithm and existing ones are also made to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can attain accurate price forecasting results even with several price spikes in historical electricity price data.
