为研究非化石能源在中国未来电力行业发展中的作用,建立了中国电力政策评价模型(electric power policy assessment model for China,EPPAC)。在对未来电力需求和非化石能源发电装机进行情景设计的基础上,对非化石能源在中国电力行业发...为研究非化石能源在中国未来电力行业发展中的作用,建立了中国电力政策评价模型(electric power policy assessment model for China,EPPAC)。在对未来电力需求和非化石能源发电装机进行情景设计的基础上,对非化石能源在中国电力行业发展中的作用及其2020年发展目标核算的敏感性进行了分析,指出未来实现非化石能源发展目标所面临的困难及不确定性。结果表明:在政策情景下,2020年非化石能源在电力行业的应用按火电供电煤耗核算将达到7.1亿tce,在一次能源消费的占比将达到14.8%;而在水电与核电发展减速的情景下,为达到相同非化石能源占比,需将2020年风力发电装机容量增至310GW,或将太阳能发电增至220GW,这将分别是其"十二五"规划目标的1.7和8.7倍。展开更多
Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution an...Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution and the use of fossil fuels in north China, the economic zone of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the economic zone of the Pearl River Delta region. Researches indicate that the use of fossil fuels has been the main source of air pollution in the three regions. We present researches on global mean surface temperature (GMST) with the rise of carbon dioxide concentration (CDC) and global fossil fuel consumption (GFFC);researches indicate that the rise in CDC can account for 91% of the rise in GMST, and GFFC can account for 90% of the rise in GMST. We analyse the factors that bring about air pollution and temperature rise, they are the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. It is critically important to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, but renewable energy has also disadvantages. The world faces difficulties in solving air pollution and global warming, so governments of the world should cooperate to solve the technologies of clean energy, and preserve the forests and the natural environment.展开更多
Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, especially global CO2 emission (GCE) has greatly increased with the growth of global human population (GHP), which has caused climate change. Both GCE an...Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, especially global CO2 emission (GCE) has greatly increased with the growth of global human population (GHP), which has caused climate change. Both GCE and GHP are positively related with the rise of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our empirical research shows that the impact from GCE on GMST is 7.72 times of that from TSI, and the impact from GHP on GMST is 7.9 times of that from TSI. The growth rate of global surface temperature was slower from 1998 to 2012, which was mainly caused by the decadal cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean-La Niña. Deforestation and vegetation degradation affect climate change, feedback radiation between the atmosphere and the biosphere account for 30% of the variation in global surface radiation and precipitation. The share of renewable energy remains small in primary energy consumption due to their disadvantages.展开更多
文摘为研究非化石能源在中国未来电力行业发展中的作用,建立了中国电力政策评价模型(electric power policy assessment model for China,EPPAC)。在对未来电力需求和非化石能源发电装机进行情景设计的基础上,对非化石能源在中国电力行业发展中的作用及其2020年发展目标核算的敏感性进行了分析,指出未来实现非化石能源发展目标所面临的困难及不确定性。结果表明:在政策情景下,2020年非化石能源在电力行业的应用按火电供电煤耗核算将达到7.1亿tce,在一次能源消费的占比将达到14.8%;而在水电与核电发展减速的情景下,为达到相同非化石能源占比,需将2020年风力发电装机容量增至310GW,或将太阳能发电增至220GW,这将分别是其"十二五"规划目标的1.7和8.7倍。
文摘Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution and the use of fossil fuels in north China, the economic zone of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the economic zone of the Pearl River Delta region. Researches indicate that the use of fossil fuels has been the main source of air pollution in the three regions. We present researches on global mean surface temperature (GMST) with the rise of carbon dioxide concentration (CDC) and global fossil fuel consumption (GFFC);researches indicate that the rise in CDC can account for 91% of the rise in GMST, and GFFC can account for 90% of the rise in GMST. We analyse the factors that bring about air pollution and temperature rise, they are the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. It is critically important to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, but renewable energy has also disadvantages. The world faces difficulties in solving air pollution and global warming, so governments of the world should cooperate to solve the technologies of clean energy, and preserve the forests and the natural environment.
文摘Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, especially global CO2 emission (GCE) has greatly increased with the growth of global human population (GHP), which has caused climate change. Both GCE and GHP are positively related with the rise of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our empirical research shows that the impact from GCE on GMST is 7.72 times of that from TSI, and the impact from GHP on GMST is 7.9 times of that from TSI. The growth rate of global surface temperature was slower from 1998 to 2012, which was mainly caused by the decadal cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean-La Niña. Deforestation and vegetation degradation affect climate change, feedback radiation between the atmosphere and the biosphere account for 30% of the variation in global surface radiation and precipitation. The share of renewable energy remains small in primary energy consumption due to their disadvantages.
