Characteristics of climate change in the Changjiang Delta were analyzed based on the annual mean meteorological data since 1961,including air temperature,maximum and minimum air temperature,precipitation,sunshine dura...Characteristics of climate change in the Changjiang Delta were analyzed based on the annual mean meteorological data since 1961,including air temperature,maximum and minimum air temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and visibility at 48 stations in that area(southern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang),and its adjacent areas(northern Jiangsu,eastern Anhui and southern Zhejiang),together with the environmental data.The results indicate that it is getting warmer in the Changjiang Delta and cooler in adjacent areas,thus the Changjiang Delta becomes a big heat island,containing many little heat islands consisting of central cities,in which Shanghai City is the strongest heat island.The intensity of heat islands enhances as economic development goes up. From the year 1978.the beginning year of reform and opening policy,to the year 1997,the intensity of big heat island of Changjiang Delta has increased 0.5℃ and Shanghai heat island increased 0.8℃. However.since 1978 the constituents of SO_2,NO_x and TSP(total suspended particles)in the atmosphere,no matter whether in the Changjiang Delta or in the adjacent areas,have all increased, but pH values of precipitation decreased.In the meantime,both sunshine duration and visibility are also decreased,indicating that there exists a mechanism for climate cooling in these areas.Our analyses show that the mechanism for climate warming in the Changjiang Delta may be associated with heating increase caused by,economic development and increasing energy consumption.It is estimated that up to 1997 the intensity of warming caused by this mechanism in the Changjiang Delta has reached 0.8—0.9℃,about 4—4.5 times as large as the mean values before 1978.Since then, the increase rate has become 0. 035℃/a for the Changjiang Delta.It has reached 1.3℃ for Shanghai in 1997,about 12—13 times as large as the mean values before 1978.This is a rough estimation of increasing energy consumption rate caused by economic development.展开更多
The research topic related to the analysis of banking activity is relevant since the banking sector is complex and dynamic and requires constant monitoring and analysis to make informed decisions. Using a mathematical...The research topic related to the analysis of banking activity is relevant since the banking sector is complex and dynamic and requires constant monitoring and analysis to make informed decisions. Using a mathematical model of system dynamics to analyse banking activities can help banks make better decisions, manage risk, ensure the stability and efficiency of operations, and adapt to changing conditions. The purpose of the study is to determine the influence of various factors, in particular economic activity, on the final profit of the bank. Among the methods used, the analytical method, the functional method, the system analysis method, the deduction method, the synthesis method, and the comparison method were applied. In the course of this study, an extensive analytical review of banking activities was carried out using a system dynamics model, taking into account the requirements of the International Financial Reporting Standards(IFRS 9). The study included various scenario analyses to explore the impact of changes in economic conditions on the bank's loan portfolio,risk level, and profitability. Both economic growth scenarios and recession scenarios were considered in order to more fully assess their impact on the financial condition of the bank. A forecast and analysis of the risks associated with lending, investments, and other bank operations was carried out. The practical significance lies in the application of the results obtained to address issues related to banking in order to increase the efficiency of this process and achieve a new level of development.展开更多
基金the key project"Interaction of lower atmospheric physico-chemical processes with ecological system in Changjiang Delta"sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Characteristics of climate change in the Changjiang Delta were analyzed based on the annual mean meteorological data since 1961,including air temperature,maximum and minimum air temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and visibility at 48 stations in that area(southern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang),and its adjacent areas(northern Jiangsu,eastern Anhui and southern Zhejiang),together with the environmental data.The results indicate that it is getting warmer in the Changjiang Delta and cooler in adjacent areas,thus the Changjiang Delta becomes a big heat island,containing many little heat islands consisting of central cities,in which Shanghai City is the strongest heat island.The intensity of heat islands enhances as economic development goes up. From the year 1978.the beginning year of reform and opening policy,to the year 1997,the intensity of big heat island of Changjiang Delta has increased 0.5℃ and Shanghai heat island increased 0.8℃. However.since 1978 the constituents of SO_2,NO_x and TSP(total suspended particles)in the atmosphere,no matter whether in the Changjiang Delta or in the adjacent areas,have all increased, but pH values of precipitation decreased.In the meantime,both sunshine duration and visibility are also decreased,indicating that there exists a mechanism for climate cooling in these areas.Our analyses show that the mechanism for climate warming in the Changjiang Delta may be associated with heating increase caused by,economic development and increasing energy consumption.It is estimated that up to 1997 the intensity of warming caused by this mechanism in the Changjiang Delta has reached 0.8—0.9℃,about 4—4.5 times as large as the mean values before 1978.Since then, the increase rate has become 0. 035℃/a for the Changjiang Delta.It has reached 1.3℃ for Shanghai in 1997,about 12—13 times as large as the mean values before 1978.This is a rough estimation of increasing energy consumption rate caused by economic development.
文摘The research topic related to the analysis of banking activity is relevant since the banking sector is complex and dynamic and requires constant monitoring and analysis to make informed decisions. Using a mathematical model of system dynamics to analyse banking activities can help banks make better decisions, manage risk, ensure the stability and efficiency of operations, and adapt to changing conditions. The purpose of the study is to determine the influence of various factors, in particular economic activity, on the final profit of the bank. Among the methods used, the analytical method, the functional method, the system analysis method, the deduction method, the synthesis method, and the comparison method were applied. In the course of this study, an extensive analytical review of banking activities was carried out using a system dynamics model, taking into account the requirements of the International Financial Reporting Standards(IFRS 9). The study included various scenario analyses to explore the impact of changes in economic conditions on the bank's loan portfolio,risk level, and profitability. Both economic growth scenarios and recession scenarios were considered in order to more fully assess their impact on the financial condition of the bank. A forecast and analysis of the risks associated with lending, investments, and other bank operations was carried out. The practical significance lies in the application of the results obtained to address issues related to banking in order to increase the efficiency of this process and achieve a new level of development.
