Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system...Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.展开更多
A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nu...A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.展开更多
基金funded by the National Key Program for Global Change Research of China(Grant No.2010CB950504)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant No. 2012CB95570001)the nationallevel major cultivation project of Guangdong Province entitled:"The construction and application of coupled earth system and social economic models"(Grant No.2014GKXM058)
文摘Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.
基金supported by the Research Innovation Program for college graduates of Jiangsu Province (CXLX13 487)
文摘A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.
