According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and...According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and other one as the fast urbanization period from 1981 to 2000. Based on the 40-year’s precipi-tation data of 14 standard weather stations in Beijing area, the effect of urbanization on precipitation distribution is studied. It is found that there has been a noticeable and systematic change of winter precipitation distribution pattern between these two periods in Beijing area: in the slow urbanization period, the precipitation in the southern part of Beijing is more than that in the northern part; but in the fast urbanization period, the precipitation distribution pattern is reverse, i.e. the precipitation in the southern part is less than that in the northern part; But in other seasons, the precipitation distribution pattern did not change remarkably in general. The possible cause resulting in the change of winter precipitation distribution pattern, might be that with urban area extension, the effects of "urban heat island" and "urban dry island" become more and more intensified, and increase hydrometeors evapo-ration below precipitable cloud, and then cause less precipitation received on the ground surface in the downtown and the southern part. It is also noteworthy to further research why the precipitation distri-bution pattern does not change systematically in other seasons except winter after intense urbaniza-tion in Beijing area.展开更多
The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges...The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges are applied over the HB during the period of 1980-2007, and the precipitation samples are classified into unconditional rainy days and conditional rainy days which have a dry or wet preceding day over the years. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test and the comparison between the Gamma distribution probability density function and the sample frequency of daily precipitation records of five representative stations are conducted and analyzed. The results show that the HB is a ＂scale-dominated＂ region characterized with large scale parameters of the Gamma distribution, where rainfall is likely to exhibit large variability leading to extreme wet or dry conditions. Fklrther analysis shows that the confluence area of Sha River and Ying River within the stream between Wangjiaba dam and Bengbu station, the eastern branch of the Huaihe River （HR） between Bengbu station and the Hongze Lake, and the downstream area below the Hongze Lake, are all the areas with a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a dry preceding day. The eastern part of the Yishu River watershed and the region near Wangjiaba dam are the center of a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a wet preceding day. Moreover, the day following a dry preceding day has a greater probability of small rainfall. The probability distribution of summer daily precipitation of the HB is significantly skewed. The probability distribution could be more applicable if the rainy days are preceded by a dry or wet day.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the evolution situation of dry and wet degree in Benxi area in recent 57 years.[Method] By using the annual,quarterly and monthly temperature and precipitation data in Benxi a...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the evolution situation of dry and wet degree in Benxi area in recent 57 years.[Method] By using the annual,quarterly and monthly temperature and precipitation data in Benxi area during 1953-2009,the interdecadal variations of temperature,precipitation,dry and wet index were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature in Benxi area displayed the obvious increase trend,and the linear trend rate was 0.29 ℃/10 a.But the precipitation showed the obvious decrease trend,and the linear trend rate was-29.01 mm/10 a.The dry and wet index showed the decrease trend,and the linear trend rate was-33.61 mm/10 a,which closely related to the rise of temperature and the decrease of precipitation after the 1980s.[Conclusion] It showed the warming-drying development trend in Benxi area.展开更多
Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale....Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale.This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation,change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature.The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model.A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins.It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China,except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In West China,precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins(23%),particularly in parts of North Xinjiang,Qinghai and Gansu.On the other hand,dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins(16%)of China with other factors,including parts of South China,East China and Northwestern China.Furthermore,changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs.展开更多
Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms...Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet sea- sons get wetter and the annual range （precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons） increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.展开更多
In this study, we used the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify and to characterize the dry extreme events in the Amazon region. The results showed that the drought of 1998 was the most intense (SPI average ...In this study, we used the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify and to characterize the dry extreme events in the Amazon region. The results showed that the drought of 1998 was the most intense (SPI average equal to -1.69) in the period from 1979 to 2014. However, some papers have characterized the years 2005 and 2010 as the two largest droughts of the century. Thus, it was also carried out a comparative study of these droughts. The results showed that the drought 1998 was more intensive and extreme than the droughts of 2005 and 2010, although droughts of 2005 and 2010 lasted longer than 1998 due to oceanic and atmospheric conditions with influencing to cause greater social and economic impacts. Furthermore, it is suggested that the impact of the 2005 and 2010 droughts is a response from the dry occurred in 1993-1994 and 1997-1998.展开更多
General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than...General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Ni?o (La Ni?a) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Ni?o- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.展开更多
Base cation loads are rarely considered in forest gap edge canopies,but they can play critical roles in capturing or buffering atmospheric deposition in forests with frequent gap disturbances,such as subalpine forests...Base cation loads are rarely considered in forest gap edge canopies,but they can play critical roles in capturing or buffering atmospheric deposition in forests with frequent gap disturbances,such as subalpine forests.We selected an expanded gap edge canopy and a closed canopy in a subalpine natural forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.The throughfall deposition and canopy exchange processes of common base cations(K^(+),Ca^(2+),Na^(+),and Mg^(2+))were continuously studied over two years.The results showed that the enrichment ratio and fluxes had lower levels of base cations in the gap-edge canopy than in the closed canopy,which indicated that base cations were concentrated more in the closed canopy than in the gap-edge canopy.Although Ca^(2+)in the gap-edge canopy showed a higher net throughfall flux,the annual net throughfall fluxes of K^(+),Na^(+) and Mg^(2+) within the gap-edge canopy were 1.83,6.75 and 2.95 times lower than those in the closed canopy,respectively.Moreover,dry deposition fluxes of base cations significantly decreased in the gap edge canopy compared to those in the closed canopy,and the decreasing tendency was more significant during the snowy season than during the rainy season.Overall,these results suggest that the amount of base cations in subalpine natural forest ecosystems may be overestimated when the throughfall deposition of ions in gap edge canopies is ignored.展开更多
基金Supported by Major State Basic Research Development Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2005CB422205)Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCZ2- YW-219)
文摘According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and other one as the fast urbanization period from 1981 to 2000. Based on the 40-year’s precipi-tation data of 14 standard weather stations in Beijing area, the effect of urbanization on precipitation distribution is studied. It is found that there has been a noticeable and systematic change of winter precipitation distribution pattern between these two periods in Beijing area: in the slow urbanization period, the precipitation in the southern part of Beijing is more than that in the northern part; but in the fast urbanization period, the precipitation distribution pattern is reverse, i.e. the precipitation in the southern part is less than that in the northern part; But in other seasons, the precipitation distribution pattern did not change remarkably in general. The possible cause resulting in the change of winter precipitation distribution pattern, might be that with urban area extension, the effects of "urban heat island" and "urban dry island" become more and more intensified, and increase hydrometeors evapo-ration below precipitable cloud, and then cause less precipitation received on the ground surface in the downtown and the southern part. It is also noteworthy to further research why the precipitation distri-bution pattern does not change systematically in other seasons except winter after intense urbaniza-tion in Beijing area.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201006037,GYHY200906007,and GYHY(QX)2007-6-1)
文摘The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges are applied over the HB during the period of 1980-2007, and the precipitation samples are classified into unconditional rainy days and conditional rainy days which have a dry or wet preceding day over the years. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test and the comparison between the Gamma distribution probability density function and the sample frequency of daily precipitation records of five representative stations are conducted and analyzed. The results show that the HB is a ＂scale-dominated＂ region characterized with large scale parameters of the Gamma distribution, where rainfall is likely to exhibit large variability leading to extreme wet or dry conditions. Fklrther analysis shows that the confluence area of Sha River and Ying River within the stream between Wangjiaba dam and Bengbu station, the eastern branch of the Huaihe River （HR） between Bengbu station and the Hongze Lake, and the downstream area below the Hongze Lake, are all the areas with a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a dry preceding day. The eastern part of the Yishu River watershed and the region near Wangjiaba dam are the center of a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a wet preceding day. Moreover, the day following a dry preceding day has a greater probability of small rainfall. The probability distribution of summer daily precipitation of the HB is significantly skewed. The probability distribution could be more applicable if the rainy days are preceded by a dry or wet day.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the evolution situation of dry and wet degree in Benxi area in recent 57 years.[Method] By using the annual,quarterly and monthly temperature and precipitation data in Benxi area during 1953-2009,the interdecadal variations of temperature,precipitation,dry and wet index were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature in Benxi area displayed the obvious increase trend,and the linear trend rate was 0.29 ℃/10 a.But the precipitation showed the obvious decrease trend,and the linear trend rate was-29.01 mm/10 a.The dry and wet index showed the decrease trend,and the linear trend rate was-33.61 mm/10 a,which closely related to the rise of temperature and the decrease of precipitation after the 1980s.[Conclusion] It showed the warming-drying development trend in Benxi area.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3001000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51979295)the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2019ZT08G090).
文摘Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes.Under climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale.This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation,change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature.The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model.A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins.It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China,except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In West China,precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins(23%),particularly in parts of North Xinjiang,Qinghai and Gansu.On the other hand,dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins(16%)of China with other factors,including parts of South China,East China and Northwestern China.Furthermore,changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41125017 and 41330423)
文摘Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet sea- sons get wetter and the annual range （precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons） increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.
文摘In this study, we used the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify and to characterize the dry extreme events in the Amazon region. The results showed that the drought of 1998 was the most intense (SPI average equal to -1.69) in the period from 1979 to 2014. However, some papers have characterized the years 2005 and 2010 as the two largest droughts of the century. Thus, it was also carried out a comparative study of these droughts. The results showed that the drought 1998 was more intensive and extreme than the droughts of 2005 and 2010, although droughts of 2005 and 2010 lasted longer than 1998 due to oceanic and atmospheric conditions with influencing to cause greater social and economic impacts. Furthermore, it is suggested that the impact of the 2005 and 2010 droughts is a response from the dry occurred in 1993-1994 and 1997-1998.
文摘General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Ni?o (La Ni?a) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Ni?o- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 31922052, 32022056 and 32171641)
文摘Base cation loads are rarely considered in forest gap edge canopies,but they can play critical roles in capturing or buffering atmospheric deposition in forests with frequent gap disturbances,such as subalpine forests.We selected an expanded gap edge canopy and a closed canopy in a subalpine natural forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.The throughfall deposition and canopy exchange processes of common base cations(K^(+),Ca^(2+),Na^(+),and Mg^(2+))were continuously studied over two years.The results showed that the enrichment ratio and fluxes had lower levels of base cations in the gap-edge canopy than in the closed canopy,which indicated that base cations were concentrated more in the closed canopy than in the gap-edge canopy.Although Ca^(2+)in the gap-edge canopy showed a higher net throughfall flux,the annual net throughfall fluxes of K^(+),Na^(+) and Mg^(2+) within the gap-edge canopy were 1.83,6.75 and 2.95 times lower than those in the closed canopy,respectively.Moreover,dry deposition fluxes of base cations significantly decreased in the gap edge canopy compared to those in the closed canopy,and the decreasing tendency was more significant during the snowy season than during the rainy season.Overall,these results suggest that the amount of base cations in subalpine natural forest ecosystems may be overestimated when the throughfall deposition of ions in gap edge canopies is ignored.
