目的定量评价寒潮对我国人群死亡的影响。方法检索了PubMed、Scopus、Web of Science和Medline的英文数据库,以及国内的国家知识基础设施和万方数据的中文数据库,并按照纳入标准纳入文献。运用R 3.4.3软件进行meta分析。结果本研究共纳...目的定量评价寒潮对我国人群死亡的影响。方法检索了PubMed、Scopus、Web of Science和Medline的英文数据库,以及国内的国家知识基础设施和万方数据的中文数据库,并按照纳入标准纳入文献。运用R 3.4.3软件进行meta分析。结果本研究共纳入11篇研究寒潮对我国人群死亡率影响的研究。经meta分析合计得到,寒潮对我国人群非意外死亡、心血管疾病与呼吸系统疾病人群死亡的风险(Risk ratio,RR)分别为1.25(95%CI:1.11~1.40)、1.36(95%CI:1.16~1.58)与1.46(95%CI:1.21~1.75)。2008年寒潮对全人群影响的RR值为1.38(95%CI:1.18~1.61)。对于不同个体人群,寒潮对≥65岁的老年人、教育程度低下者的影响更大;而性别间寒潮的影响无差异。结论寒潮对我国人群健康有较为严重的影响,需要在省或全国范围内构建并应用基于健康风险的寒潮预警系统,从而对敏感人群进行精准保护。展开更多
The circulation patterns of persistent cold weather spells with durations longer than 10 days in central-eastern North America （United States and Canada; 32° 52°N, 95°-65°W） are investigated by u...The circulation patterns of persistent cold weather spells with durations longer than 10 days in central-eastern North America （United States and Canada; 32° 52°N, 95°-65°W） are investigated by using NCEP reanalysis data from 1948 to 2014. The criteria for the persistent cold spells are： （1） three-day averaged temperature anomalies for the regional average over the central-eastern United States and Canada must be below the 10th percentile, and （2） such extreme cold spells must last at least 10 days. The circulation patterns associated with these cold spells are ex- amined to find the common signals of these events. The circulation anomaly patterns of these cold spells are categor- ized based on the E1 Nifio--Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, and other climate indices. The atmospheric circulation patterns that favor the cold spells are identified through composites of geopotential height maps for the cold spells. Negative AO phases favor persistent cold spells. Phases of sea surface temperature （SST） modes that are associated with warm SSTs in the eastern extratropical Pacific also favor persistent cold events in the study region. Stratospheric polar vortex breakdown alone is not a good predictor for the regional extreme cold spells in central-eastern North America. The meridional dispersions of quasi-stationary Rossby waves in the Pacific-North America sector in terms of cut-off zonal wavenumber modulated by background flow are analyzed to provide insight into the difference in evolution of the cold spells under different mean AO phases. The waveguide for AO 〉 1 is in a narrow latitudinal band centered on 40°N, whereas the waveguide for AO 〈 -1 is in a broader latitudinal band from 40° to 65°N. The circulation patterns and lower boundary conditions favorable for persistent cold spells identified by this study can be a stepping-stone for improving winter subseasonal forecasting in North America.展开更多
文摘目的定量评价寒潮对我国人群死亡的影响。方法检索了PubMed、Scopus、Web of Science和Medline的英文数据库,以及国内的国家知识基础设施和万方数据的中文数据库,并按照纳入标准纳入文献。运用R 3.4.3软件进行meta分析。结果本研究共纳入11篇研究寒潮对我国人群死亡率影响的研究。经meta分析合计得到,寒潮对我国人群非意外死亡、心血管疾病与呼吸系统疾病人群死亡的风险(Risk ratio,RR)分别为1.25(95%CI:1.11~1.40)、1.36(95%CI:1.16~1.58)与1.46(95%CI:1.21~1.75)。2008年寒潮对全人群影响的RR值为1.38(95%CI:1.18~1.61)。对于不同个体人群,寒潮对≥65岁的老年人、教育程度低下者的影响更大;而性别间寒潮的影响无差异。结论寒潮对我国人群健康有较为严重的影响,需要在省或全国范围内构建并应用基于健康风险的寒潮预警系统,从而对敏感人群进行精准保护。
基金Supported by the “Probing the Atmosphere of the High Arctic” Project of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
文摘The circulation patterns of persistent cold weather spells with durations longer than 10 days in central-eastern North America （United States and Canada; 32° 52°N, 95°-65°W） are investigated by using NCEP reanalysis data from 1948 to 2014. The criteria for the persistent cold spells are： （1） three-day averaged temperature anomalies for the regional average over the central-eastern United States and Canada must be below the 10th percentile, and （2） such extreme cold spells must last at least 10 days. The circulation patterns associated with these cold spells are ex- amined to find the common signals of these events. The circulation anomaly patterns of these cold spells are categor- ized based on the E1 Nifio--Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, and other climate indices. The atmospheric circulation patterns that favor the cold spells are identified through composites of geopotential height maps for the cold spells. Negative AO phases favor persistent cold spells. Phases of sea surface temperature （SST） modes that are associated with warm SSTs in the eastern extratropical Pacific also favor persistent cold events in the study region. Stratospheric polar vortex breakdown alone is not a good predictor for the regional extreme cold spells in central-eastern North America. The meridional dispersions of quasi-stationary Rossby waves in the Pacific-North America sector in terms of cut-off zonal wavenumber modulated by background flow are analyzed to provide insight into the difference in evolution of the cold spells under different mean AO phases. The waveguide for AO 〉 1 is in a narrow latitudinal band centered on 40°N, whereas the waveguide for AO 〈 -1 is in a broader latitudinal band from 40° to 65°N. The circulation patterns and lower boundary conditions favorable for persistent cold spells identified by this study can be a stepping-stone for improving winter subseasonal forecasting in North America.
