Market-oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector(RES).However,the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics...Market-oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector(RES).However,the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics of the Chinese economy have not been examined sufficiently.Accordingly,we analyze the intersectoral structural changes to the Chinese RES,its linkages with the rest of the economy,and its growth sources,using four Chinese input-output tables from 2002 to 2017.We depart from existing work on the RES by using the causative matrix approach and structural decomposition analysis,and obtain three main results.First,the RES,which received little non-RES feedback during the 2002-2007period,has subsequently received much more substantial feedback.Second,the impact of the RES on China s economic growth stems mainly from its forward linkages.Third,the growth in the RES has been driven mainly by domestic demand expansion.Our results highlight that the Chinese RES,which plays a key role in value chains,is highly dependent on its own final demand and a fall in its demand would impede economic development.An important implication of these results is that developing the national economy by stimulating the RES would not be as effective as developing the RES through stimulating the national economy.展开更多
Mission-critical IEC 61850 system architectures are designed to tolerate hardware failures to achieve the highest reliability performance.Hence,multi-channel systems are used in such systems within industrial faciliti...Mission-critical IEC 61850 system architectures are designed to tolerate hardware failures to achieve the highest reliability performance.Hence,multi-channel systems are used in such systems within industrial facilities to isolate machinery when there are process abnormalities.Inevitably,multi-channel systems introduce Common Cause Failure(CCF)since the subsystems can rarely be independent.This paper integrates CCF into the Markov reliability model to enhance the model flexibility to investigate synchronous generator intra-bay SCN architecture reliability performance considering the quality of repairs and CCF.The Markov process enables integration of the impact of CCF factors on system performance.The case study results indicate that CCF,coupled with imperfect repairs,significantly reduce system reliability performance.High sensitivity is observed at low levels of CCF,whereas the highest level of impact occurs when the system diagnostic coverage is 99%based on ISO 13849-1,and reduces as the diagnostic coverage level reduces.Therefore,it is concluded that the severity of CCF depends more on system diagnostic coverage level than the repair efficiency,although both factors impact the system overall performance.Hence,CCF should be con-sidered in determining the reliability performance of mission-critical communication networks in power distribution centres.展开更多
The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creat...The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.展开更多
为研究重大燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故深层成因机制,首先基于24Model系统辨识和遴选事故组织因素与外部因素,然后集成模糊理论改进决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)耦合解释结构模型(Interpre...为研究重大燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故深层成因机制,首先基于24Model系统辨识和遴选事故组织因素与外部因素,然后集成模糊理论改进决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)耦合解释结构模型(Interpretive Structural Modeling,ISM)方法,通过递阶层次结构模型探讨各因素间的逻辑关系;运用交互矩阵影响相乘法(MICMAC)深入剖析各因素属性特征并提取关键要素,最后对湖北十堰“6·13”重大事故开展了实例分析。结果表明:在政府安全管理政策和制度缺陷等外部客观风险因素的影响下,燃气公司对安全的重要程度认识不足、安全融入企业管理不足和对安全主体责任认识不足是事故爆发的关键主观组织因素,并对安全管理体系产生负面影响;应从政府和燃气公司2个角度采取针对性的措施,共同防范类似事故的再次发生。展开更多
基金Social Science Foundation Project of China Ministry of Education(No.17YJC790184).
文摘Market-oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector(RES).However,the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics of the Chinese economy have not been examined sufficiently.Accordingly,we analyze the intersectoral structural changes to the Chinese RES,its linkages with the rest of the economy,and its growth sources,using four Chinese input-output tables from 2002 to 2017.We depart from existing work on the RES by using the causative matrix approach and structural decomposition analysis,and obtain three main results.First,the RES,which received little non-RES feedback during the 2002-2007period,has subsequently received much more substantial feedback.Second,the impact of the RES on China s economic growth stems mainly from its forward linkages.Third,the growth in the RES has been driven mainly by domestic demand expansion.Our results highlight that the Chinese RES,which plays a key role in value chains,is highly dependent on its own final demand and a fall in its demand would impede economic development.An important implication of these results is that developing the national economy by stimulating the RES would not be as effective as developing the RES through stimulating the national economy.
文摘Mission-critical IEC 61850 system architectures are designed to tolerate hardware failures to achieve the highest reliability performance.Hence,multi-channel systems are used in such systems within industrial facilities to isolate machinery when there are process abnormalities.Inevitably,multi-channel systems introduce Common Cause Failure(CCF)since the subsystems can rarely be independent.This paper integrates CCF into the Markov reliability model to enhance the model flexibility to investigate synchronous generator intra-bay SCN architecture reliability performance considering the quality of repairs and CCF.The Markov process enables integration of the impact of CCF factors on system performance.The case study results indicate that CCF,coupled with imperfect repairs,significantly reduce system reliability performance.High sensitivity is observed at low levels of CCF,whereas the highest level of impact occurs when the system diagnostic coverage is 99%based on ISO 13849-1,and reduces as the diagnostic coverage level reduces.Therefore,it is concluded that the severity of CCF depends more on system diagnostic coverage level than the repair efficiency,although both factors impact the system overall performance.Hence,CCF should be con-sidered in determining the reliability performance of mission-critical communication networks in power distribution centres.
文摘The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.
文摘为研究重大燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故深层成因机制,首先基于24Model系统辨识和遴选事故组织因素与外部因素,然后集成模糊理论改进决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)耦合解释结构模型(Interpretive Structural Modeling,ISM)方法,通过递阶层次结构模型探讨各因素间的逻辑关系;运用交互矩阵影响相乘法(MICMAC)深入剖析各因素属性特征并提取关键要素,最后对湖北十堰“6·13”重大事故开展了实例分析。结果表明:在政府安全管理政策和制度缺陷等外部客观风险因素的影响下,燃气公司对安全的重要程度认识不足、安全融入企业管理不足和对安全主体责任认识不足是事故爆发的关键主观组织因素,并对安全管理体系产生负面影响;应从政府和燃气公司2个角度采取针对性的措施,共同防范类似事故的再次发生。
