作物模型为人们认识旱区农业生境过程并对其进行调控提供了一种有效的工具。为了探讨小麦生长模拟模型DSSAT-CERES-Wheat能否准确模拟水分胁迫条件下旱区冬小麦的生长发育和产量形成过程,同时确定参数估计和模型验证的最优方案,该研究...作物模型为人们认识旱区农业生境过程并对其进行调控提供了一种有效的工具。为了探讨小麦生长模拟模型DSSAT-CERES-Wheat能否准确模拟水分胁迫条件下旱区冬小麦的生长发育和产量形成过程,同时确定参数估计和模型验证的最优方案,该研究进行了连续两季（2012.10-2013.06和2013.10-2014.06）的冬小麦分段受旱田间试验。试验将冬小麦整个生育期划分为越冬、返青、拔节、抽穗和灌浆5个主要生长阶段,每相邻两个生长阶段连续受旱,形成4个不同的受旱时段水平（D1-D4）,根据小麦生育期的需水量,设置灌水定额分别为40和80 mm 2个水平（I1和I2）,共形成8个处理,每处理3次重复,在遮雨棚内采用裂区试验布置,此外在旁边设置1个各生育期全灌水的对照处理。文中设置了5套不同的参数估计和验证方案,利用DSSAT-GLUE参数估计模块得到不同的参数估计结果。通过对比分析冬小麦物候期、单粒质量、生物量、产量、以及土壤水分含量的模拟值和实测值之间的差异,以确定利用DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模拟旱区冬小麦生境过程的精度。结果表明,参数P1V（最适温度条件下通过春化阶段所需天数）和G3（成熟期非水分胁迫下单株茎穂标准干质量）具有较强的变异性,变异系数分别为19.07%和16.34%,受基因型-环境互作的影响较大,而其他参数的变异性则较弱,变异系数均小于10%;DSSAT-GLUE参数估计工具具有较好的收敛性,不同参数估计方案所得的参数值具有一定的一致性;不同的参数估计方案所得的模型输出结果有较大差异,其中参数估计方案1（利用两季试验中的充分灌溉处理CK数据进行参数估计,其他不同阶段受旱处理数据进行验证）的模型校正和验证精度最高,其中模型校正的绝对相对误差（absolute relative error,ARE）和相对均方根误差（relative root mean squared error,RRMSE）分别为4.89%和5.18%。在展开更多
To improve efficiency in the use of water resources in water-limited environments such as the North China Plain（NCP）, where winter wheat is a major and groundwater-consuming crop, the application of water-saving irr...To improve efficiency in the use of water resources in water-limited environments such as the North China Plain（NCP）, where winter wheat is a major and groundwater-consuming crop, the application of water-saving irrigation strategies must be considered as a method for the sustainable development of water resources. The initial objective of this study was to evaluate and validate the ability of the CERES-Wheat model simulation to predict the winter wheat grain yield, biomass yield and water use efficiency（WUE） responses to different irrigation management methods in the NCP. The results from evaluation and validation analyses were compared to observed data from 8 field experiments, and the results indicated that the model can accurately predict these parameters. The modified CERES-Wheat model was then used to simulate the development and growth of winter wheat under different irrigation treatments ranging from rainfed to four irrigation applications（full irrigation） using historical weather data from crop seasons over 33 years（1981–2014）. The data were classified into three types according to seasonal precipitation： 〈100 mm, 100–140 mm, and 〉140 mm. Our results showed that the grain and biomass yield, harvest index（HI） and WUE responses to irrigation management were influenced by precipitation among years, whereby yield increased with higher precipitation. Scenario simulation analysis also showed that two irrigation applications of 75 mm each at the jointing stage and anthesis stage（T3） resulted in the highest grain yield and WUE among the irrigation treatments. Meanwhile, productivity in this treatment remained stable through different precipitation levels among years. One irrigation at the jointing stage（T1） improved grain yield compared to the rainfed treatment and resulted in yield values near those of T3, especially when precipitation was higher. These results indicate that T3 is the most suitable irrigation strategy under variable precipitation regimes for stable yield of展开更多
The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The cas...The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province in the east China. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.展开更多
Assimilating Sentinel-2 images with the CERES-Wheat model can improve the precision of winter wheat yield estimates at a regional scale. To verify this method, we applied the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) to assimilate...Assimilating Sentinel-2 images with the CERES-Wheat model can improve the precision of winter wheat yield estimates at a regional scale. To verify this method, we applied the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) to assimilate the leaf area index(LAI) derived from Sentinel-2 data and simulated by the CERES-Wheat model. From this, we obtained the assimilated daily LAI during the growth stage of winter wheat across three counties located in the southeast of the Loess Plateau in China: Xiangfen, Xinjiang, and Wenxi. We assigned LAI weights at different growth stages by comparing the improved analytic hierarchy method, the entropy method, and the normalized combination weighting method, and constructed a yield estimation model with the measurements to accurately estimate the yield of winter wheat. We found that the changes of assimilated LAI during the growth stage of winter wheat strongly agreed with the simulated LAI. With the correction of the derived LAI from the Sentinel-2 images, the LAI from the green-up stage to the heading–filling stage was enhanced, while the LAI decrease from the milking stage was slowed down, which was more in line with the actual changes of LAI for winter wheat. We also compared the simulated and derived LAI and found the assimilated LAI had reduced the root mean square error(RMSE) by 0.43 and 0.29 m^(2) m^(–2), respectively, based on the measured LAI. The assimilation improved the estimation accuracy of the LAI time series. The highest determination coefficient(R2) was 0.8627 and the lowest RMSE was 472.92 kg ha^(–1) in the regression of the yields estimated by the normalized weighted assimilated LAI method and measurements. The relative error of the estimated yield of winter wheat in the study counties was less than 1%, suggesting that Sentinel-2 data with high spatial-temporal resolution can be assimilated with the CERES-Wheat model to obtain more accurate regional yield estimates.展开更多
研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个...研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。展开更多
Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies.Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation,especially ...Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies.Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation,especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3H Plain)of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming.In this study,the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.)yield between the baseline period(1981–2010)and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5)were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039),the medium-term(2040–2069)and the long-term(2070–2099)in the 3H Plain,by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature,solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model.Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN),solar radiation(SRAD),and precipitation(PREP)during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs.Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD,PREP and CO2 concentration,but decreased with an increase in temperature.Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact,increasing wheat yield by 9.53,6.62 and 23.73%for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario,and 11.74,16.38 and 27.78%for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario.However,as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration,which further aggravated water deficits,the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92,4.08 and 5.24%for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario,and 3.64,5.87 and 5.81%for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5.Counterintuitively,the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive,but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions.Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3H Plain,which is a part of the mid-high latitude region,the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggrav展开更多
为给小麦变量施氮提供依据,利用冬小麦起身期和拔节期冠层光谱数据,选用反映冬小麦长势信息的优化土壤调节植被指数OSAVI(Optimization of soil-adjusted vegetation index)与CERES-Wheat模型相结合进行变量施肥管理(变量区),以相邻地...为给小麦变量施氮提供依据,利用冬小麦起身期和拔节期冠层光谱数据,选用反映冬小麦长势信息的优化土壤调节植被指数OSAVI(Optimization of soil-adjusted vegetation index)与CERES-Wheat模型相结合进行变量施肥管理(变量区),以相邻地块常规非变量(均一)施肥区(对照区)为对照,对变量追氮模型的可行性进行探讨,并对变量追肥处理的实际效果进行分析。结果表明,CERES-Wheat模型能较好地反映冬小麦的生长状况,在冬小麦产量预测中,目标产量与实测产量具有良好的一致性。变量施肥区的产量、籽粒蛋白质含量及经济效益均优于对照区,同时变量施肥区的籽粒产量和蛋白质含量的空间变异较对照均有所降低,说明基于高光谱响应与模拟模型的冬小麦变量追氮技术具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。展开更多
文摘作物模型为人们认识旱区农业生境过程并对其进行调控提供了一种有效的工具。为了探讨小麦生长模拟模型DSSAT-CERES-Wheat能否准确模拟水分胁迫条件下旱区冬小麦的生长发育和产量形成过程,同时确定参数估计和模型验证的最优方案,该研究进行了连续两季（2012.10-2013.06和2013.10-2014.06）的冬小麦分段受旱田间试验。试验将冬小麦整个生育期划分为越冬、返青、拔节、抽穗和灌浆5个主要生长阶段,每相邻两个生长阶段连续受旱,形成4个不同的受旱时段水平（D1-D4）,根据小麦生育期的需水量,设置灌水定额分别为40和80 mm 2个水平（I1和I2）,共形成8个处理,每处理3次重复,在遮雨棚内采用裂区试验布置,此外在旁边设置1个各生育期全灌水的对照处理。文中设置了5套不同的参数估计和验证方案,利用DSSAT-GLUE参数估计模块得到不同的参数估计结果。通过对比分析冬小麦物候期、单粒质量、生物量、产量、以及土壤水分含量的模拟值和实测值之间的差异,以确定利用DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模拟旱区冬小麦生境过程的精度。结果表明,参数P1V（最适温度条件下通过春化阶段所需天数）和G3（成熟期非水分胁迫下单株茎穂标准干质量）具有较强的变异性,变异系数分别为19.07%和16.34%,受基因型-环境互作的影响较大,而其他参数的变异性则较弱,变异系数均小于10%;DSSAT-GLUE参数估计工具具有较好的收敛性,不同参数估计方案所得的参数值具有一定的一致性;不同的参数估计方案所得的模型输出结果有较大差异,其中参数估计方案1（利用两季试验中的充分灌溉处理CK数据进行参数估计,其他不同阶段受旱处理数据进行验证）的模型校正和验证精度最高,其中模型校正的绝对相对误差（absolute relative error,ARE）和相对均方根误差（relative root mean squared error,RRMSE）分别为4.89%和5.18%。在
基金funded by the Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest of China (201203031,201303133)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31071367)
文摘To improve efficiency in the use of water resources in water-limited environments such as the North China Plain（NCP）, where winter wheat is a major and groundwater-consuming crop, the application of water-saving irrigation strategies must be considered as a method for the sustainable development of water resources. The initial objective of this study was to evaluate and validate the ability of the CERES-Wheat model simulation to predict the winter wheat grain yield, biomass yield and water use efficiency（WUE） responses to different irrigation management methods in the NCP. The results from evaluation and validation analyses were compared to observed data from 8 field experiments, and the results indicated that the model can accurately predict these parameters. The modified CERES-Wheat model was then used to simulate the development and growth of winter wheat under different irrigation treatments ranging from rainfed to four irrigation applications（full irrigation） using historical weather data from crop seasons over 33 years（1981–2014）. The data were classified into three types according to seasonal precipitation： 〈100 mm, 100–140 mm, and 〉140 mm. Our results showed that the grain and biomass yield, harvest index（HI） and WUE responses to irrigation management were influenced by precipitation among years, whereby yield increased with higher precipitation. Scenario simulation analysis also showed that two irrigation applications of 75 mm each at the jointing stage and anthesis stage（T3） resulted in the highest grain yield and WUE among the irrigation treatments. Meanwhile, productivity in this treatment remained stable through different precipitation levels among years. One irrigation at the jointing stage（T1） improved grain yield compared to the rainfed treatment and resulted in yield values near those of T3, especially when precipitation was higher. These results indicate that T3 is the most suitable irrigation strategy under variable precipitation regimes for stable yield of
文摘The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province in the east China. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFD020040103)the National Key Research and Development Program of Shanxi Province, China (201803D221005-2)。
文摘Assimilating Sentinel-2 images with the CERES-Wheat model can improve the precision of winter wheat yield estimates at a regional scale. To verify this method, we applied the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) to assimilate the leaf area index(LAI) derived from Sentinel-2 data and simulated by the CERES-Wheat model. From this, we obtained the assimilated daily LAI during the growth stage of winter wheat across three counties located in the southeast of the Loess Plateau in China: Xiangfen, Xinjiang, and Wenxi. We assigned LAI weights at different growth stages by comparing the improved analytic hierarchy method, the entropy method, and the normalized combination weighting method, and constructed a yield estimation model with the measurements to accurately estimate the yield of winter wheat. We found that the changes of assimilated LAI during the growth stage of winter wheat strongly agreed with the simulated LAI. With the correction of the derived LAI from the Sentinel-2 images, the LAI from the green-up stage to the heading–filling stage was enhanced, while the LAI decrease from the milking stage was slowed down, which was more in line with the actual changes of LAI for winter wheat. We also compared the simulated and derived LAI and found the assimilated LAI had reduced the root mean square error(RMSE) by 0.43 and 0.29 m^(2) m^(–2), respectively, based on the measured LAI. The assimilation improved the estimation accuracy of the LAI time series. The highest determination coefficient(R2) was 0.8627 and the lowest RMSE was 472.92 kg ha^(–1) in the regression of the yields estimated by the normalized weighted assimilated LAI method and measurements. The relative error of the estimated yield of winter wheat in the study counties was less than 1%, suggesting that Sentinel-2 data with high spatial-temporal resolution can be assimilated with the CERES-Wheat model to obtain more accurate regional yield estimates.
文摘研究首先利用1980—2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41401510 and 41675115)the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2017–2020)
文摘Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies.Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation,especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3H Plain)of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming.In this study,the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.)yield between the baseline period(1981–2010)and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5)were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039),the medium-term(2040–2069)and the long-term(2070–2099)in the 3H Plain,by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature,solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model.Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN),solar radiation(SRAD),and precipitation(PREP)during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs.Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD,PREP and CO2 concentration,but decreased with an increase in temperature.Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact,increasing wheat yield by 9.53,6.62 and 23.73%for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario,and 11.74,16.38 and 27.78%for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario.However,as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration,which further aggravated water deficits,the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92,4.08 and 5.24%for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario,and 3.64,5.87 and 5.81%for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5.Counterintuitively,the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive,but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions.Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3H Plain,which is a part of the mid-high latitude region,the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggrav
文摘为给小麦变量施氮提供依据,利用冬小麦起身期和拔节期冠层光谱数据,选用反映冬小麦长势信息的优化土壤调节植被指数OSAVI(Optimization of soil-adjusted vegetation index)与CERES-Wheat模型相结合进行变量施肥管理(变量区),以相邻地块常规非变量(均一)施肥区(对照区)为对照,对变量追氮模型的可行性进行探讨,并对变量追肥处理的实际效果进行分析。结果表明,CERES-Wheat模型能较好地反映冬小麦的生长状况,在冬小麦产量预测中,目标产量与实测产量具有良好的一致性。变量施肥区的产量、籽粒蛋白质含量及经济效益均优于对照区,同时变量施肥区的籽粒产量和蛋白质含量的空间变异较对照均有所降低,说明基于高光谱响应与模拟模型的冬小麦变量追氮技术具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。
