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解释中国农村区域间的收入不平等:一种基于回归方程的分解方法 被引量:184
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作者 万广华 《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第8期117-127,共11页
本文提出了一个分解不平等的框架 ,在这一框架中 ,诸如收入之类的因变量的不平等可以分解为相关的回归方程中自变量或代理变量的贡献。本文所提出的分析框架可以被运用于分解任何不平等指标 ,并且对回归模型的限制条件也不多。通过将Box... 本文提出了一个分解不平等的框架 ,在这一框架中 ,诸如收入之类的因变量的不平等可以分解为相关的回归方程中自变量或代理变量的贡献。本文所提出的分析框架可以被运用于分解任何不平等指标 ,并且对回归模型的限制条件也不多。通过将Box Cox和Box Tidwel收入决定函数结合起来的方式 。 展开更多
关键词 box-cox模型 中国 农村经济 区域收入差距 回归方程 农民收入 定量分析 分解不平等框架
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农民培训机构的培训效果及影响因素研究——以宁波市为例 被引量:8
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作者 姜明伦 于敏 李红 《农业展望》 2015年第8期55-62,共8页
采取Box-Cox变换方法构建现代计量模型,具体包括总体回归模型和分类回归模型,从培训机构的角度研究了影响农民培训效果的因素。研究发现,培训方法中有无进行田间示范对于整体培训合格率影响显著,培训步骤中有无分析产业规划并制定计划... 采取Box-Cox变换方法构建现代计量模型,具体包括总体回归模型和分类回归模型,从培训机构的角度研究了影响农民培训效果的因素。研究发现,培训方法中有无进行田间示范对于整体培训合格率影响显著,培训步骤中有无分析产业规划并制定计划对于实用技术培训人次的多少影响显著等。最后,针对调查中发现的问题,提出健全农民培训机构、提升培训能力的政策建议。 展开更多
关键词 农民培训机构 培训效果 box-cox模型 软硬件设施
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路径抽样法在贝叶斯模型选择中的应用 被引量:2
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作者 郝志峰 王宁宁 《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2004年第10期90-92,共3页
为采用贝叶斯分析方法解决模型选择问题 ,针对传统的Box Cox模型线性与非线性的选择问题 ,将路径抽样法应用于贝叶斯因子的计算 ,引进一个连续的路径参数并且假定它满足一定的概率分布 ,利用该路径参数连接待选择的模型 ,使计算贝叶斯... 为采用贝叶斯分析方法解决模型选择问题 ,针对传统的Box Cox模型线性与非线性的选择问题 ,将路径抽样法应用于贝叶斯因子的计算 ,引进一个连续的路径参数并且假定它满足一定的概率分布 ,利用该路径参数连接待选择的模型 ,使计算贝叶斯因子的工作主要集中于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC)抽样上 ,从而简化了使用贝叶斯分析方法的计算过程 ,实现了路径抽样法在模型选择中的具体应用 . 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯因子 模型选择 路径抽样 box-cox模型
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城镇居民生活用电需求弹性变化趋势研究——以浙江省为例 被引量:1
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作者 申晓军 《杭州电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》 2012年第4期25-30,共6页
采用浙江省城镇居民1985-2008年数据,基于博克斯-考克斯模型实证分析了城镇居民生活用电需求弹性,并比较了博克斯-考克斯模型、双对数模型及线性模型结果的异同。主要结论如下:(1)在5%显著性水平下,双对数模型未被拒绝,而线性模型被拒绝... 采用浙江省城镇居民1985-2008年数据,基于博克斯-考克斯模型实证分析了城镇居民生活用电需求弹性,并比较了博克斯-考克斯模型、双对数模型及线性模型结果的异同。主要结论如下:(1)在5%显著性水平下,双对数模型未被拒绝,而线性模型被拒绝;(2)长期而言,居民电能需求价格缺乏弹性、收入富于弹性,各弹性值呈动态缓慢演进趋势。结果表明,政策制定者应注重制定可行的电力规划并努力实行高效节能技术来适应居民电能需求,同时应适当提高居民销售电价,并辅以相关电价政策鼓励节约用电。 展开更多
关键词 居民生活用电 博克斯-考克斯模型 电能需求弹性
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Box-Cox-SV模型及其对金融时间序列刻画能力研究 被引量:3
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作者 许启发 张世英 《系统工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2005年第4期359-366,426,共9页
利用Box-Cox变换构造的随机波动模型,即Box-Cox-SV模型,较好地概括了现有文献中出现的一些常用SV类模型,避免了模型选择中的困难.论证了该类模型的矩属性和平方序列的自相关特征,利用MCMC估计方法对上证指数收益序列建立了Box-Cox-SV模... 利用Box-Cox变换构造的随机波动模型,即Box-Cox-SV模型,较好地概括了现有文献中出现的一些常用SV类模型,避免了模型选择中的困难.论证了该类模型的矩属性和平方序列的自相关特征,利用MCMC估计方法对上证指数收益序列建立了Box-Cox-SV模型,并与EGARCH模型对金融时间序列的刻画能力在理论上和实证上进行了对比研究. 展开更多
关键词 boxcox变换 boxcox—SV模型 MCMC方法 EGARCH模型
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基于多信息融合的电动汽车保有量预测模型分析 被引量:7
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作者 郭云鹏 彭明伟 +2 位作者 李梁 赵萌 袁军 《浙江电力》 2015年第1期55-58,共4页
电动汽车保有量发展趋势预测是电动汽车充/换电服务网络规划建设的重要参考依据,在分析汽车市场发展规律的基础上,选取其主要影响因子,通过多元线性回归法预测汽车市场的发展规模;采用Box-Cox Dogit模型分析电动汽车市场的分担规模,预... 电动汽车保有量发展趋势预测是电动汽车充/换电服务网络规划建设的重要参考依据,在分析汽车市场发展规律的基础上,选取其主要影响因子,通过多元线性回归法预测汽车市场的发展规模;采用Box-Cox Dogit模型分析电动汽车市场的分担规模,预测电动汽车市场规模的理论最大值;最后通过改进的Bass模型,确定电动汽车市场的内、外部影响系数,并预测其发展趋势,可为电动汽车相关规划提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 电动汽车 保有量 多元线性回归法 boxcox Dogit模型
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基于Box-Cox Dogit模型的公共交通分担率预测 被引量:5
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作者 刘好德 《交通信息与安全》 2012年第1期47-51,共5页
通过分析影响交通方式选择的外部因素和内部因素,基于最大随机效用理论,提出了城市公共交通分担率预测的非集计Box-Cox Dogit模型。针对模型的建立、参数标定以及计算过程进行了推导。最后结合杭州市的实际调查数据,进行了公共交通分担... 通过分析影响交通方式选择的外部因素和内部因素,基于最大随机效用理论,提出了城市公共交通分担率预测的非集计Box-Cox Dogit模型。针对模型的建立、参数标定以及计算过程进行了推导。最后结合杭州市的实际调查数据,进行了公共交通分担率的预测实验,独立样本检验结果表明,模型预测准确率较高。 展开更多
关键词 公共交通 分担率预测 非集计方法 box-cox Dogit模型
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Evaluation of Length of Hospital Stay Joining Educational Programs for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients: Can We Control Medical Costs in Japan? 被引量:4
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作者 Kazumitsu Nawata Koichi Kawabuchi 《Health》 2015年第2期256-269,共14页
Diabetes has become a growing concern in Japan, both medically and financially. The medical cost of diabetes was estimated at 1215 billion yen for fiscal year 2011. We analyzed the length of stay (LOS) in a hospital f... Diabetes has become a growing concern in Japan, both medically and financially. The medical cost of diabetes was estimated at 1215 billion yen for fiscal year 2011. We analyzed the length of stay (LOS) in a hospital for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who participated in educational programs to determine factors affecting LOS. Data on 991 patients obtained from 28 Red Cross hospitals in 2008 were used. For the analysis, we used the Box-Cox transformation model and Hausman test. The results revealed that patients aged 75 years and above and those with comorbidities and complications were prone to longer LOS. The analysis also revealed significant differences in LOS across the hospitals, even after controlling for patient characteristics. Finally, we applied the least squares method to determine the effects of hospital and regional factors and revealed that patients’ LOS was affected by the region’s average LOS. Regional corporations and networks appeared to be important in improving educational programs. 展开更多
关键词 Medical COST DIABETES Type 2 DIABETES MELLITUS PATIENTS Length of Stay (LOS) EDUCATIONAL Program box-cox Transformation model
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Financial Sustainability of the Japanese Medical Payment System: Analysis of the Japanese Medical Expenditure for Educational Hospitalization of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes 被引量:3
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作者 Kazumitsu Nawata Koichi Kawabuchi 《Health》 2015年第8期1007-1021,共15页
Japanese medical expenditures have increased rapidly in recent years and are predicted to continue rising. Indeed, it remains uncertain whether the current Japanese medical system can be sustained. In this paper, we a... Japanese medical expenditures have increased rapidly in recent years and are predicted to continue rising. Indeed, it remains uncertain whether the current Japanese medical system can be sustained. In this paper, we analyzed the medical expenditures for educational hospitalization of patients with type 2 diabetes. A dataset of 6173 patients from 36 hospitals was used in the analysis. The sample period was from July 2008 to March 2012. We analyzed the medical expenditures in two ways. First, we analyzed the length of hospital stay (LOS). Next, we analyzed the daily expenditure per patient. The Box-Cox transformation model was used in the first analysis and the ordinary least squares method in the second. Comorbidities and complications prolonged LOS and increased daily expenditures. The LOS was significantly different among hospitals. On the other hand, the differences in daily expenditures among hospitals were relatively small, such that LOS was the main determinant of medical expenditures. Previous studies suggested that LOS could be shortened without degradation of medical quality. Moreover, LOS could be controlled by introducing proper critical paths and improving and standardizing educational programs. Hence, it would be possible to control the medical expenditures for this disease. 展开更多
关键词 MEDICAL EXPENDITURE Financial Problem Type 2 Diabetes Patients Length of Stay (LOS) EDUCATIONAL HOSPITALIZATION Daily MEDICAL EXPENDITURE box-cox Transformation model
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电动汽车充电基础设施规划方法初探 被引量:2
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作者 熊瑶 《交通与运输》 2016年第A02期85-88,共4页
随着燃油供需矛盾以及环境污染的日益严峻,我国已将发展新能源汽车作为国家战略,电动汽车充电桩的建设也在全国开展。总结国内外电动汽车建设发展经验,对充电基础设施的分类、建设要求、规模预测等方面进行了总结与思考,对处于探索阶段... 随着燃油供需矛盾以及环境污染的日益严峻,我国已将发展新能源汽车作为国家战略,电动汽车充电桩的建设也在全国开展。总结国内外电动汽车建设发展经验,对充电基础设施的分类、建设要求、规模预测等方面进行了总结与思考,对处于探索阶段的新兴行业来说,具有一定的借鉴作用。 展开更多
关键词 电动汽车 直流充电桩 交流充电桩 残差灰色模型 B0xcox Dogit模型
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A Long Term Evaluation of the Japanese Medical Payment System for Cataract Surgeries: Did the Medical Policy Reduce the Long Hospital Stay in Japan?
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作者 Kazumitsu Nawata Koichi Kawabuchi 《Health》 CAS 2016年第9期905-919,共15页
In this paper, we conducted a long term survey of the cataract surgeries. The sample period was about 7 years, from July 2005 to March 2012. We evaluated the effects of three revisions of the medical payment system th... In this paper, we conducted a long term survey of the cataract surgeries. The sample period was about 7 years, from July 2005 to March 2012. We evaluated the effects of three revisions of the medical payment system that were done in 2006, 2008 and 2010. For the analysis, the Box-Cox transformation model and Hausman test using Nawata’s estimator were used for the length of stay (LOS) in hospitals, and the ordinary least squares method was used for the non-inclusive (mainly payments for surgeries) payments. We analyzed a dataset of 51,054 patients obtained from 60 hospitals (Hp1-60) where more than 300 one-eye cataract surgeries were performed during the period. For the LOS, we found that only the 2008 revision had significant impact on shortening the LOS but the other two did not. We also found very large differences among hospitals even after eliminating effects of patients’ characteristics and type of principle diseases as previous studies. For non-inclusive payments 2006 and 2008 revisions had significant impacts and the differences among hospitals were much smaller than those of the LOS. 展开更多
关键词 DPC/PDPS Inclusive Payment System CATARACT Length of Stay (LOS) box-cox Transformation model Hausman Test
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An Econometric Analysis of Hospital Length of Stay for Cataract Operations in Japan by the Box-Cox Transformation Model and Hausman Tests: Evaluation of the 2010 Revision of the Medical Payment System
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作者 Kazumitsu Nawata Koichi Kawabuchi 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2015年第9期559-570,共12页
The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by re... The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases. 展开更多
关键词 Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) CATARACT Length of Stay (LOS) box-cox TRANSFORMATION model
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Asymptotic Efficiency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for the Box-Cox Transformation Model with Heteroscedastic Disturbances
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作者 Kazumitsu Nawata 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第5期835-841,共8页
This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a con... This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a consistent and asymptotically efficient estimator if the “small ” condition is satisfied and the number of parameters is finite. However, the BC MLE cannot be asymptotically efficient and its rate of convergence is slower than ordinal order when the number of parameters goes to infinity. Anew consistent estimator of order is proposed. One important implication of this study is that estimation methods should be carefully chosen when the model contains many parameters in actual empirical studies. 展开更多
关键词 Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) Asymptotic Efficiency box-cox Transformation model HETEROSCEDASTICITY
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多类型复发事件数据下一类Box-Cox转移模型
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作者 郦博文 张海祥 《应用数学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第5期656-668,共13页
在本文中,我们针对多类型的复发事件数据提出了一类Box-Cox转移模型,它包含了比例模型作为其特殊情况.该模型在刻画协变量对于计数过程的均值函数效应时具有很大的灵活性.对于模型的推断问题,我们基于估计方程方法给出了未知参数的估计... 在本文中,我们针对多类型的复发事件数据提出了一类Box-Cox转移模型,它包含了比例模型作为其特殊情况.该模型在刻画协变量对于计数过程的均值函数效应时具有很大的灵活性.对于模型的推断问题,我们基于估计方程方法给出了未知参数的估计,并研究了该估计的大样本性质.最后,我们提出了一种基于残差的模型检验方法. 展开更多
关键词 box-cox转移模型 复发事件 模型检验 估计方程 计数过程
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