Landslide （or rockslide） is a geological disaster that is mainly induced by strong precipitation, among a number of other natural inducing factors. Based on 1615 landslide cases, a statistical analysis is performed ...Landslide （or rockslide） is a geological disaster that is mainly induced by strong precipitation, among a number of other natural inducing factors. Based on 1615 landslide cases, a statistical analysis is performed to find the relationship among the landslide occurrence time, rainfall 0 10 days ahead, and probability of landslides over the Chongqing region. The results show that 1） strong rainfall-caused landslides occur mainly on the day it rains or ] 2 days after the heavy rain, and as time goes on, the likelihood of the disaster reduces rapidly; 2） the heavier the rainfall, the closer the landslide time is to the precipitation time. A concept of ＂effective precipitation＂ is thus developed, and a categorical prediction model for heavy raincaused landslides is established. Tests show that for categories Ⅲ, Ⅳ, and Ⅴ landslides, the model forecast accuracy arrives at 29.9%, 75%, and 100%, respectively. This indicates that the categorized probabilistic prediction can serve as a warning for the landslide prevention and mitigation.展开更多
基金Supported jointly by the Landslide and Soil-Rock Flow Monitoring/Warning Service of Southwest China as part of the 2007 China Meteorological Administration Multi-Orbital Operation Project
文摘Landslide （or rockslide） is a geological disaster that is mainly induced by strong precipitation, among a number of other natural inducing factors. Based on 1615 landslide cases, a statistical analysis is performed to find the relationship among the landslide occurrence time, rainfall 0 10 days ahead, and probability of landslides over the Chongqing region. The results show that 1） strong rainfall-caused landslides occur mainly on the day it rains or ] 2 days after the heavy rain, and as time goes on, the likelihood of the disaster reduces rapidly; 2） the heavier the rainfall, the closer the landslide time is to the precipitation time. A concept of ＂effective precipitation＂ is thus developed, and a categorical prediction model for heavy raincaused landslides is established. Tests show that for categories Ⅲ, Ⅳ, and Ⅴ landslides, the model forecast accuracy arrives at 29.9%, 75%, and 100%, respectively. This indicates that the categorized probabilistic prediction can serve as a warning for the landslide prevention and mitigation.
